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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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investor
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07-Oct-2007 21:20
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From my somewhat superficial knowledge of the clinical measurements, my impression is that Biosensors does indeed have a good DES, but I would not hasten to say that they are the best.( I may be wrong, and I hope that I am wrong) One thing that is clearly lacking from Biosensors is large data running into thousands of patients, over a at least 2-yr minimum period for doctors to feel confident about the product, something that Biosensors competitors like Medtronics (Endeavour), as well as Abbot (Xience) have. Biosensors only have a 120 patient data from Stealth 1, and a 160 patient data from Nobori Phase 1. However, the Leaders trial will change all that, in that finally, you can get to see data from thousands of patients, and TO SEE if the good clinical results obtained from the smaller samples are consistent with this much larger trial. Also, this bigger pool of dat must stand the test of time. ie over a at least 2 yr period. Having said that, my understanding is that CE Mark approval does not require such a large patient pool, and hopefully, it can come sooner than later. |
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bengster68
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07-Oct-2007 20:59
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Ooi abc2wyz, i thought you jumped ship already? Excellent timing for entering again with the expected share price upsurge if CE is approved later this month. Anyway, I have a better article to share on Endeavor here. Apparently EndeavorIV trial failed to meet secondary end-point. BTW Endeavor III trial failed to meet primary end-point. I feel there is still a chance Endeavor may still be approved by FDA, but with restricted usage. Like i said before, Endeavor's short-term efficacy is not impressive and long-term safety is their only hope and selling point, just like BMS. This stent behaves like a good BMS only. Xience (developed with BIG's help) can beat them all easily and only Biomatrix (BIG's flagship DES) can beat Xience. BIG is the real grandmaster in stent technology. WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Medtronic Inc's (MDT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) drug-coated stent heads to a review next week by a panel of U.S. medical experts, but some industry analysts voiced concern about the trial data on Friday and the company's shares fell. U.S. Food and Drug Administration staff said in documents released on the Internet on Friday that overall rates of death, heart attacks and clotting were no greater in the Endeavor stent compared with rival products. But some Wall Street analysts worried about a higher rate of one measure of blood clotting seen with Endeavor, when compared with a rival stent called Taxus made by Boston Scientific (BSX.N: Quote, Profile, Research). "The upcoming FDA panel for Endeavor is likely to be more challenging than most expect," Morgan Stanley analyst Glenn Reicin said in an investor note. "At first blush, data... do not look particularly convincing." Medtronic said it was confident of approval and disputed the significance of the higher rate for one type of clotting. Its shares closed Friday 1.9 percent lower at $55.90 on the New York Stock Exchange. The FDA is asking an advisory panel of outside experts that meets on Wednesday if Medtronic's data support the safety and effectiveness of the Endeavor stent. The FDA will make the final decision but usually follows advisory panel recommendations. The staff questions and data "just reinforces that there is a little uncertainty going into the (FDA) panel vote," said Jeff Jonas, a portfolio manager at Gamco Investors which holds Medtronic shares. Stents are tiny mesh tubes used to prop open arteries after doctors clear them of blockages. Some versions have a drug coating meant to keep the vessels from reclogging. Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research), with its Cypher stent, market the two currently U.S.-approved drug-coated stents. The drug-coated stent market, once near $6 billion a year, has contracted sharply amid safety concerns. Some studies found patients may develop dangerous blood clots months later, and many doctors have reverted to older and cheaper bare-metal versions. In one Medtronic study, 0.8 percent of patients suffered from a key measure of blood clotting, or thrombosis, at nine months, compared with 0.1 percent in Taxus patients. Scott Ward, president of Medtronic's cardiovascular business, said the difference was not statistically significant, meaning it could have been due to chance. He also said clotting at nine months was related to the implantation procedure and different from the "very late" clotting, typically after one year, that has raised concerns. Medtronic has not recorded any of those cases in patients followed up to two years, Ward said. "We are confident that we will achieve approval and will be prepared to launch by the end of the calendar year," Ward said in an interview. The FDA staff reviewers said a higher rate of deaths, heart attacks or clotting "has not been observed to date" with Endeavor. The FDA reviewers said Medtronic's most recent trial, Endeavor IV, met its primary goal, but failed to meet a secondary goal measuring blood vessel narrowing. Wachovia analyst Larry Biegelsen said the safety data overall suggests that Endeavor's safety profile is "somewhat tarnished," but still intact. "The higher incidence of (thrombosis) for Endeavor ... will reduce the strong safety image," but not eliminate it, because the long-term safety data has been positive, he said in a note to investors. JP Morgan analyst Mike Weinstein, in a research note, said there was "nothing concerning" in the FDA's questions and the panel was likely to recommend Endeavor for approval. |
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abc2xyz
Senior |
07-Oct-2007 17:47
Yells: "A stock sucker always enriches the market makers" |
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Look ripe for takeoff. Last round, sold all Biosensors to buy ABbot Lab at US$52.50.in September . Now already sold my Abbot at 55.50 and the profits are going to be used as bullets to buy into Biosensors. Felt $3.00 profit better take.and hope Biosensors this round will help me huat further. And what a better time than this? Market is super liquid and super bullish! Don't take much time, Biosensors!. Be quick!!! |
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Pension
Elite |
06-Oct-2007 12:30
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there is a movement pattern of this counter, observe it and you will make some kopi money. | |||
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ekekeg
Veteran |
06-Oct-2007 09:52
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This piece of news by right should bolster Biosensors' share price. Market is slow to react. |
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bengster68
Master |
05-Oct-2007 23:08
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Latest news on Endeavor: Medtronic to Present Findings from the Comprehensive ENDEAVOR Clinical Experience to FDA Advisory Panel Friday October 5, 10:06 am ET MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT - News) announced today a synopsis of clinical data on the Endeavor(TM) Drug Eluting Coronary Stent to be presented to an FDA Advisory Panel on October 10. This announcement was made in conjunction with the release of FDA Advisory Panel materials by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and includes a pooled data analysis of the major trials encompassing the ENDEAVOR clinical program as well as newly released nine-month results from the ENDEAVOR IV clinical trial. The Advisory Panel will consider whether to recommend approval of the device to the FDA. The Panel's recommendation will be subject to FDA approval.
"The Endeavor clinical program has compiled a comprehensive set of data on the safety, efficacy and procedural success of the next-generation Endeavor stent," said Scott Ward, president of Medtronic's CardioVascular business. "The volume and duration of the Endeavor clinical data is unmatched by any previous DES submission and the most extensive ever considered by an FDA Advisory Panel for approval. The performance of the Endeavor stent has been well characterized across different time frames, patients and geographies, which should facilitate the Panel's review." Medtronic will present the FDA Advisory Panel data from the ENDEAVOR I - IV clinical trials, which are designed to illustrate the consistent treatment effect of the Endeavor stent on key efficacy, safety and procedural success metrics. Highlights are as follows: -- Endeavor demonstrates superior reduction in restenosis compared with a bare metal stent that is sustained over time. -- Endeavor reduced restenosis in patients by more than 60 percent over its bare metal stent comparator, the Driver bare metal stent, at nine months. -- The reduction in restenosis is sustained over time as Endeavor shows a 92.8 percent freedom from Target Lesion Revascularization (TLR) at three years, meaning less than 8.0 percent of patients had to return for a repeat revascularization. -- A unique, long-term safety profile has been established on the Endeavor stent. -- Low rates of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI) and stent thrombosis are confirmed with long-term follow-up to three years. -- 99.0 percent of Endeavor clinical patients have survived without a cardiac death beyond three years after implant; 97.3 percent of the Endeavor clinical patients have been free from heart attack (MI) at three years. -- There is no evidence of increased stent thrombosis risk within one year (0.7% vs. 1.3% ARC definite/probable) or in years one to three (0.1% vs. 0.2%) in patients treated with the Endeavor stent compared with those treated with the Driver bare metal stent. -- Using the protocol specified definitions of stent thrombosis, the Endeavor program has no stent thrombosis beyond six months in its clinical program (EI-EIV). "The Endeavor stent has shown tremendous consistency and balance across the major study endpoints addressing efficacy, safety and deliverability," said Martin B. Leon, M.D., Columbia University Hospital, N.Y., and principal investigator of the ENDEAVOR III and ENDEAVOR IV clinical trials. "Endeavor's performance on safety is particularly noteworthy, and the clinical program to date is sufficient - in regards to number of patients and duration of follow up - to conclude that Endeavor has an excellent safety profile. Patients in the Endeavor clinical program have been well served by receiving this next-generation technology." Today's announcement also included newly released information on the successful outcome of the ENDEAVOR IV clinical trial. The ENDEAVOR IV clinical trial is a randomized, single-blind trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of the Endeavor stent as compared to the Taxus Paclitaxel-Eluting Stent from Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE:BSX - News). ENDEAVOR IV is evaluating 1,548 patients at 80 clinical centers in the United States with a primary endpoint of Target Vessel Failure (TVF) at nine months. TVF is a composite endpoint which includes cardiac death, MI, and Target Vessel Revascularization (TVR). As previously announced by Medtronic, the Endeavor stent met the ENDEAVOR IV trial's primary endpoint and demonstrated comparable (non-inferior) composite clinical outcomes to the Taxus stent. Endeavor's TVF at nine months in the trial was 6.8 percent versus 7.4 percent for Taxus, with Endeavor demonstrating non-inferiority on all of the key TVF metrics - cardiac death, MI and TVR. In addition, Endeavor's efficacy, as measured by TLR, was 4.2 percent in the trial, statistically equivalent to the Taxus stent (TLR of 2.7 percent) overall and with more complex patient subsets, including diabetics, which comprised 31 percent of patients enrolled in the trial. Endeavor's unique safety profile was reaffirmed in the trial. Endeavor's overall stent thrombosis rate was 0.8 percent in the trial and no stent thrombosis was observed after six months. Finally, the trial showed a statistically significant difference between Endeavor and Taxus in procedural success as measured by peri-procedural MIs (Non Q-Wave MIs), meaning patients who received Endeavor were less likely to have a heart attack or complication within 30 days of receiving the stent. "In a large, randomized clinical trial, Endeavor demonstrated efficacy comparable to the U.S. market leader," added Ward. "Endeavor demonstrated strong results on safety, efficacy and deliverability, reinforcing the conclusion that Endeavor offers sound clinical performance." Medtronic will present the full pre-clinical and clinical experience of the Endeavor stent to an FDA Advisory Panel on October 10. *** What about the late-loss??? Dare not report because it is very huge and the bad scarring renarrows the artery and reclog up the treated artery. Why measure MACE rate at 30 dys when the trial was 9 months trial??? Because at 9 months MACE rate is probably higher than Taxus. No late-thrombosis after 6 months??? Statistically, late-thrombosis for first generation DES is about 0.5%. Newer DES like Xience and Biomatrix also has no late thrombosis even after 3 years so Endeavor's safety record is no big deal and it is their one and only selling point. In my opinion, this stent performs like Taxus, less late-thrombosis but very bad scarring and artery renarrowing problem. Not a convincing trial result. Medtronic changes conventional DES trial results goal posts and hide ugly facts on other poor performance of Endeavor. Biomatrix still the best. Wait until TCT2007 and see the results. Don't forget Endeavor is now comparing against Taxus Express (older version) and NOBORI 1 phase 2 is comparing against Taxus Liberte (newer and better version). |
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cwwan1
Member |
05-Oct-2007 20:15
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When is the meeting with CE panel? TCT is from 20th to 25th Oct. |
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novena_33
Veteran |
05-Oct-2007 15:02
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im happy if US dont drop..... | |||
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ekekeg
Veteran |
05-Oct-2007 13:59
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Writers and journalists usually have a hidden agenda. They will not tell you the whole truth. Usually half truths and many a times lies hidden in some petty forms or red herrings so as to serve their motives. Anyway I am vested, whether CE or no CE as the shares are not truly reflecting the perspectives and the fundamentals. I think the counter should move fast next week when tonight, the US market shows it potency by closing 100 to 250 points up; or at least confidently closing above the 14,000 marks so as to prepare for the next objective beyond. Cheers. |
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bengster68
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05-Oct-2007 10:47
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Sometimes you cannot trust what the newspaper write. Eg: when BIG announced the JW deal, I spotted 3 mistakes in the Business Times and told BIG they must communicate better with the press. Can you tell me which press and what date was the article that said CE is expected to be awarded in H2 of 2008? I may have to report this misrepresentation to BIG and ask them to do something about investor relations. In 13/09 OCBC research report, the analyst also said no further trials need to be conducted for CE approval. Some forumers in other forum have been spreading rumours that CE requires more trials to be conducted, CE will come out on H2 of 2008 earliest or CE may never be awarded to entince forumers to dump their shares and that particular forumer later bought the shares cheap. I have said before the CEO said many times (including at AGM on August 2007 and May 2007 full year results podcast) that "it is not a matter of whether CE will be awarded but when will CE be awarded us". As to why I think there is 90% chance CE may be awarded this month, please read my earlier posts in this forum since last week. CE normally meet about once every 3 months. And October will be it!!! |
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dinola
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05-Oct-2007 07:18
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bengster, I read in papers that expected CE date is 3Q08. I know you did quite a bit of research in this counter, did u come across this news? can u share why do u think ce can be out this month? i also vested | |||
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bengster68
Master |
05-Oct-2007 01:42
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This couple of week could be the last chance of buying up BIG cheap. Im already fully loaded and ready to see this stock chiong later this month. Not trying to induce you guys here to buy but if CE really come out later this month, there is little chance to pick up this stock cheap and play another round of waiting game for takeover to happen. If CE comes out but takeover doesn't happen (20% chance), we still have the comfort of NASDAQ listing. But if by 10 Nov still no CE news announcemnt, that means jialat kena delay again. You guys do your own risk assessment carefully and make your own decision. | |||
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novena_33
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05-Oct-2007 00:08
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har... is the same...buyer only want to pay cheap.... and seller want to sell high... ALL I WANT is to sell higher sell them higher better for us anyway...BIG chart seem nice.....look like some thing cooking behind...mid term trend have cross the zero...hopefully can have some move.... |
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bengster68
Master |
03-Oct-2007 22:20
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Buy only when you believe BIG has the best drug and stent technology. Buy only when you believe the takeover hypothesis is true. Don't just hear my story and buy. Please do your own verification. Im just offering my personal opinion. Everybody think Im talking cock on JNJ's offers. I swear JNJ did offered to buy over BIG previously and will bring this truth down to my grave. Just that JNJ's offer was not attractive enough for key controlling shareholders to agree to it. I also wait until quite sian. I also prefer to just sell to JNJ and move on. But JNJ wants full control. Retail investors will want to sell to JNJ but JNJ is not an investment company. They want FULL CONTROL. They takeover promising small companies to make themselves even stronger in globally. This is how they grow and become dominant in their industry. | |||
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techsys
Master |
03-Oct-2007 22:10
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Bengster, just give us the link next time. |
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dvdtsk
Member |
03-Oct-2007 16:57
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Well spoken beng... I like your style. | |||
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bengster68
Master |
03-Oct-2007 14:56
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This month is BIG's meeting with Netherlands CE panel for Biomatrix's approval. If approved, the formal letter of award will take about one week to receive. Some companies do make announcements immediately after CE meeting that "CE has been confirmed awarded and we are waiting for formal award letter". However, BIG is a more conservative company. Last time Axxion's CE award was announced 2 days after they received CE's letter and kena fock by investors for late announcement. If by 10th Nov still no CE approval announcement, that means jialat liao kena delayed again. However, with the blood-clot issue being over-blown and no blood-clot for 3 year safety data for Biomatrix, and trial data like NOBORI 1 & 2 showing Biomatrix is the best performing DES so far, i think the CE has no further reason to delay Biomatrix. I would give the chance of CE approval at 90% chance of happening this time round. In fact, BIG has consulted a CE regulatory approval specialist on the unreasonable delay and the expert's advice is to stick with the Netherlands panel as any change to other EU country panel will be more damaging than beneficial. It just happen that when its Biomatrix's turn for approval, BIG suay suay kena the most stingy team and thats the Netherlands team. BIG should have passed over the schedule and wait for the next round for a less stingy panel. BIG also suspect there is foul play at Netherlands CE due to rival DES player's influence at Nehterlands CE panel and if this month still kena delayed again, BIG will lodge a formal complain on unfair treatment. I think before CE approval, share price will not cross 80cts (100 MA) even if BIG announce very good trial results at TCT2007 because most investors don't understand the importance of these trial results anyway. But to me, trial results are of paramount importance to prove your product's performance against existing product leaders. This is medical industry and the best performance product should be the best selling. CE comes out, share price may test recent high of $1.12 on the day of announcement. A lot of investors may sell-out after the long CE wait but to me this is the beginning of takeover action. Before the CE euphoria losses steam, BIG may announce NASDAQ listing plan to give our share price another big boost. We know matured markets like Europe and USA have better appreciation of small biotech/med stocks like BIG while such companies are normally unappreciated in Asian stock exchanges. Next, FDA IDE for Biomatrix could be coming out soon, esp if Endeavor and Xience has their FDA PMA approval in October. The whole FDA DES approval pipeline got clogged up due to blood clot concerns and once this clog is cleared, IDE will be very soon. IDE is as big thing as CE because US is a much bigger market for DES than the whole of EU. Yes, Biomatrix is slightly over one year later than Xience and Endeavor but be rest assured Biomatrix's performance can kill them off easily, esp Endeavor. Boston and JNJ will be desperate if Endeavor and Xience break into US market. Both Boston and JNJ don't have any new breakthrough DES to deal with 2 new comers. Fastest way is to buy up the next most potential small DES player. BIG is the best takeover target with best drug/stent technology (everything proprietary) and well guarded patents. JNJ has the cash, Boston may propose part cash, part share issue. But i feel untimately JNJ will be the final buyer. JNJ offered to takeover BIG before, just that they couldn't garner enough support from big shareholders of BIG with their previous offer price. JNJ's previous offer price is already almost triple the current share price. JNJ must have control of BIG for a meaningful and successful takeover. Not just control, but FULL CONTROL to integrate BIG into their global operations. Thats why when this company finally kena bought up with blessings of key shareholders, retail investors will be wondering how come this hopeless dog can actually worth so much and undervalued for so long right under our nose. Everything now still hinges on the CE for real takeover action to start. No CE, low takeover price, key sharholder don't want to sell. With CE, excellent trial results, IDE and NASDAQ listing plan plus 2 new DES player breaking into US market, JNJ will be even more desperate to buy up BIG. Sticking to my TP of $3 on takeover price. |
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novena_33
Veteran |
03-Oct-2007 12:24
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Hey bengster68...... sound like u from the industry... so what ur take on target price and a time for Bios ? waiting until my neck long long |
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bengster68
Master |
03-Oct-2007 00:44
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Medtronic is an global powerhouse for medical devices. Market Cap about US$70B. Huge war chest of cash for acquisition. In fact, i think they are doing some share buying back. They are new to stent business but they can see how lucrative DES business can be. However, their focus is still on durable polymer and durable polymer can be potentially dangerous in the long run, esp when the polymer cracks. Endeavor's late-loss is so huge, it is not recommended for small arteries. They keep shifting goal posts of trial end-points to hide their stent problems and only show the positive side. This month we will see Medtronic's FDA PMA for Endeavor. If they get FDA approval, I don't think MDT will be very keen in buying over BIG. This is because there are only 2 DES players that currently have FDA approval and even a second rated DES like Endeavor can make a lot of money for Medtronic when FDA approval is obtained. But the good news is if Endeavor and Xience is approved by FDA, JNJ and BSX will be even more desperate to buy up BIG. JNJ has no new DES weapon and BSX (which depends majority of their ernings on DES) is still using a licensed with royalty payment toxic drug and BSX has no real new breakthrough in stent technology to deal with Xience and Endeavor. JNJ has the cold hard cash ready, BSX will probably offer part cash part share issue for takeover. These stent industry players just want to sell and make money and genuine concern for patients are really just bulls@#t. Medtronic recently kena investigation for commission "kickbacks" to doctors for using their products. Doctors will recommend patients which brand to use that give the doctors highest earnings via kickbacks and PR entertainment perks. This is bribery to doctors!!! Its a pharma and medical devices are very dirty business even when integrity is suppose to be of paramount importance to the medical industry. Among all the small DES players, only BIG is worthwhile to takeover for their drug/stent technology and patents. Once CE is approved, one of them will showhand in their offer. I think JNJ will be the most likely candidate again. | |||
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cwwan1
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02-Oct-2007 22:22
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Medtronic a stent company in US stock price is currently trading at 55USD 100 share convert to SGD is 7+ dollars. Biosensor such good company is trading at only .72 cents, obviuosly undervalued!!!If listed in US, it will be very good but i guess BIG is going for a takeover. |
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