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Sembmarine
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Dreamy
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04-Aug-2013 01:57
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i find this thread is quite informative and educational, thanks bro krisluke 
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 23:15
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chart update
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 22:36
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 Revision Time
Hanging Man vs Dragonfly Doji dragonfly doji candlestick Dragonfly Doji
• Direction: Bearish • Type: Reversal • Reliability: Moderate 
• A very small body with a long lower wick • The lower wick is at least twice as long as the candlestick body • No upper wick After a market in an overall uptrend the sharp sell-off reflected by the Dragonfly suggests the bulls may have lost sway over the market trend. Despite the fact that market price closes at or near its open/high price reflecting a bull rally in the same day, this candle casts doubt on the markets ability to continue the uptrend. With bulls losing momentum the pattern can potentially be a signal for further sell offs. Watch for confirmation of the reversal should markets trade bearish the next day. Dragonfly Doji vs Hanging Man The Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern is a rare single candlestick pattern that occurs at the top of an uptrend. It is very similar to the Hanging Man Pattern, except on a Dragonfly Doji the opening and closing prices are nearly identical (no body). When markets manage to close at the same price as they open it suggests more uncertainty about future trend than even a small candle. That makes the Bearish Dragonfly Doji more reliable than a Hanging Man offering a stronger bearish signal. http://fxwords.com |
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 14:49
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1Q 2013 vs chart trading hour before announcement = down actual: earning up 2Q 2013 vs chart trading hour before announcement = up actual: earning down 3Q 2013 vs chart trading hour before announcement = down (est) actual: earning up (est) |
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 14:46
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Sembmar horizontal support is $4.20 Observe high volume in breaking the support for downtrend. Can buy near $4.20 for more upside. |
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 14:41
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It's Revision Time on Triangle .. ...
Ascending TrianglesAscending triangles are considered bullish Forex chart pattern formations, though depending on whether they are formed during an up-trend or a down-trend they may have different implications regarding future price movement. Spotted within an up-trend an ascending triangle is typically considered an indication that the upwards trend will continue. Just the opposite, if an ascending triangle forms during a downwards trend it is considered an indication of a trend reversal. Essentially, ascending triangles are comprised of a series of candles that form the shape of a triangle. The term ascending triangle refers to the fact that the triangle's two trend lines are not created equally the top line of the triangle will represent a fairly even level of high prices, while the lower level of the triangle will represent a continued series of higher lows. The consolidation between buyers and sellers at an upward slant suggests pressure from the buyers. The resistance line can typically only hold for so long before the buyers get the best of the sellers and the price breaks out in an upwards trend, at which point the resistance level often becomes the new support level. Figure 3 shows an example of an ascending triangle chart pattern. 
Descending TrianglesDescending triangles are just the opposite of ascending triangles. In a downwards trend the triangle forms as an indication that the trend will continue downwards. In an upwards trend the triangle forms as an indication of a trend reversal. Descending triangles are formed when there is a series of progressively lower highs and relatively even lows. As can be seen in the image below the top line or resistance line of the triangle will be angled down, while the lower line or support level will appear as a level horizontal line. Symmetrical TrianglesSymmetrical triangles are most often considered a continuation chart pattern. Symmetrical triangles can be seen as a series of lower highs and higher lows develop forming the shape of a triangle. This pattern represents a struggle between buyers and sellers, as is usually the case with price consolidation more often than not symmetrical triangles precede a price breakout. Though it is generally safe to assume that symmetrical triangles will only present themselves as an indication that the current trend either upwards or downwards will continue, this may not always be the case. 
Triangle patterns can automatically be identified by Pattern Recognition Systems and alert Forex traders as they emerge. Chart Pattern - WedgesWedges are often considered a difficult Forex chart pattern to recognize, and or are often confused with triangles. The key to spotting the difference is found in the slant or the angle of the support or resistance line. When observing triangles notice that ascending triangles show a flat or even resistance line, conversely descending triangles show a flat or even support line. Symmetrical triangles, as their name suggests, are neither slanted downwards or upwards. Wedges on the other hand, are represented by support and resistance lines that both slant in the same direction, be it up or down. 
There are two types of wedges: rising wedges and falling wedges. Falling WedgesFalling wedges are considered bullish Forex chart pattern formations. When found in a downwards trend the falling wedge suggests a reversal of the trend. When found in an upwards trend the falling wedge suggests a continuation of the upwards trend. The falling wedge is formed by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Notice that both the support and resistance levels of the wedge are slanted downwards, this is what sets this pattern apart from a triangle chart pattern. Prices within the falling wedge will continue to tighten until the resistance line is finally penetrated and the breakout upwards begins. Rising WedgesRising wedges, the opposite of falling wedges, are considered bearish patterns and are represented by a series of continued higher highs and higher lows which are narrowing or consolidating. The rising wedge suggests that though the buyers are reaching new highs, these highs a progressively tighter and tighter. These progressively tighter highs indicate that the upwards trend is losing steam. A rising wedge found in an upwards trend would suggest a trend reversal and a rising wedge found in a downwards trend would suggest a short rally from the buyers, but ultimately a continuation of the downwards trend. 
Pattern Recognition Systems can correctly identify and alert Forex traders of wedge patterns. Chart Pattern - Flags & PennantsFlags and pennants are perhaps the most common of continuation chart patterns. Spotting a flag or a pennant usually begins with noticing the flag pole, or the trend line. Flags and pennants typically form after a substantial trend up or down as an indication that the price is consolidating or being tested before continuing in the initial direction of the trend. Often the consolidation period (the flag or pennant) is slanted in a direction opposite of the initial trend, this demonstrates the Forex market's hesitation to continue upwards or downwards, but ultimately it is nothing more than a hesitation and an indication that the initial trend is continuing. Though both flags and pennants indicate a continuation of the current trend, there is a distinct visual difference between the two. The flag is usually represented by a more rectangular consolidation period, ( view figure 7 ) meaning both support and resistance levels will be about an equal distance from one another. A pennant on the other hand will be represented by support and resistance levels that are moving towards one another in the shape of an asymmetrical triangle. Both the flag and the pennant are always spotted at the end of the flag pole, or at the end of a sharp directional trend. 
A good Pattern Recognition System can automatically identify and alert Forex traders of flag and pennant patterns. Chart Pattern - Head & Shoulders / Reverse Head & ShouldersHead and shoulders are usually found after a long trend either up or down. . Consisting of three peaks, one of which (the head) is centered and higher than the two lower and relatively equal peaks (the shoulders). Head and Shoulders is perhaps the most well known reversal patterns. Formed after a long upwards trend the left shoulder begins to form while still in the upwards trend. Essentially the left shoulder forms as prices rally up and quickly thereafter retrace, typically the upwards trend line, or resistance level will not be broken as this happens. Notice that when the left shoulder is seen alone, it can also be viewed as a forming flag. As the left shoulder completes, prices again rally, this time to a new high which will become the head of the chart pattern. After the high peak or head of the pattern is formed and prices have retraced back down, again prices will rally to near the same level as the left shoulder to form the right shoulder. Essentially, within an upwards trend prices have attempted to rally three times and each rally has seen limited success, or in other words has been rejected by the sellers. Once the right shoulder breaks through the support line equal with the right shoulder (the neck line), the reversal of the trend has officially begun. Buyers have tried to continue the upwards trend, and three times have lost their battle to the sellers. 
Reverse Head and ShouldersReverse head and shoulders represent essentially the same situation as normal head and shoulders, but of course are found in long term downwards trends as opposed to long term upwards trends. Instead of the head and shoulders represented by new peak highs they are represented by new peak lows. The reverse head and shoulders tips the trader that the downwards trend is losing steam as three new lows have been tested and each time bested by the buyers in the market. |
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 14:33
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Sembcorp Marine's income sank 12.5% to $124.9mBlame it on lower revenue. According to OSK DMG, SMM’s 2Q13 net profit declined 12.5% y-o-y to SGD124.9m, accounting for 42%-44% of the firm's and consensus forecasts. The lower earnings were primarily due to lower revenue (-7.6% y-o-y) and weaker contributions from Cosco. Operating margin was fairly flat y-o-y at 13%. Here's more from OSK DMG: - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/shipping-marine/news/sembcorp-marines-income-sank-125-1249m#sthash.zeYWt6tC.dpuf |
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 14:28
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OCBC on 2 Aug 2013
Sembcorp Marine: New yard opens at a time of record order book
● Results largely in line
● Drillship and yards on track
● Record net order book of S$14.4b
2Q13 results largely in line
Sembcorp Marine (SMM) reported a 7.6% YoY fall in revenue to S$1.12b and a 12.5% decrease in net profit to S$124.9m in 2Q13, such that 1H13 figures accounted for about 43% of our full year estimates, which we judge to be largely within our expectations. 1H12 figures accounted for about 48% of the whole year, but unlike then, 1) the last quarter saw fewer projects achieving initial recognition more are expected in 3Q13, and 2) the new Tuas yard should see revenue contribution in 2H13. Operating margin in 2Q13 was 13.0% vs. 13.1% in 2Q12 and 13.7% in 1Q13.
1st drillship and Brazil yard on track
Construction of the first drillship is now about 35% complete, and is expected to leave Singapore no later than Feb next year for Brazil. This also means that construction and fittings of the South Quay in Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz should be completed by early next year. Meanwhile, the second drillship unit is expected to start revenue recognition in 4Q13-1Q14.
New Tuas yard promises to be capable and integrated
Phase 1 of the new Tuas yard is now complete with four drydocks, each at least 360m long. The third drydock, which has a length of 412m, can accommodate the longest container vessel in the world – the Maersk unit is still under construction in Daewoo’s yard. Besides being able to cater to a wide range of products, the yard has an innovative configuration that allows for faster turnaround and higher efficiency. Each crane in the Phase 1 area has a reach of at least 100m, and in total all of them can cover 86% of the land area, reducing the need for transport vehicles and corresponding crew.
Maintain BUY
After securing new orders worth about S$3.5b YTD, the group’s net order book stands at S$14.4b, a record high in SMM’s history. Meanwhile the stock price has appreciated by about 7.3% since our last report on 6 May 2013, and has outperformed the STI by about 11.1% over the same period. Maintain BUY with S$5.64 fair value estimate.
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krisluke
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03-Aug-2013 14:26
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Sembcorp Marine's order book hits a record $14.4bNew projects are worth $3.2b. According to DBS, order book stands at record S$14.4bn. YTD, SMM has secured new projects worth S$3.2bn, or 64% of new order wins assumption of S$5bn, and is on track to meet expectations. DBS said that construction of the first drillship is ahead of schedule with 35% completion, and is planned to be towed to Brazil in Feb 2014. " The second drillship is expected to commence initial recognition in 4Q13/1Q14. The construction of SMM’s yard in Brazil is also on schedule. SMM has embarked on a series of training programmes to ensure sufficient supply of trained workforce for its Brazil yard," DBS said.- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/shipping-marine/news/sembcorp-marines-order-book-hits-record-144b?utm_source=twitterfeed& utm_medium=twitter#sthash.1Cv9LwUP.dpuf |
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 15:18
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Sembcorp Marine: New yard opens at a time of record order book Summary: Sembcorp Marine (SMM) reported a 7.6% YoY fall in revenue to S$1.12b and a 12.5% decrease in net profit to S$124.9m in 2Q13, such that 1H13 figures accounted for about 43% of our full year estimates, which we judge to be largely within our expectations. The last quarter saw fewer projects achieving initial recognition more are expected in 3Q13. The new Tuas yard should also see revenue contribution in 2H13. Operating margin in 2Q13 was 13.0% vs 13.1% in 2Q12. After securing new orders worth about S$3.5b YTD, the group’s net order book stands at S$14.4b, a record high in SMM’s history. Meanwhile the stock price has appreciated by about 7.3% since our last report on 6 May 2013, and has outperformed the STI by about 11.1% over the same period. Maintain BUYwith S$5.64 fair value estimate. (Low Pei Han) |
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 15:15
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In summary .. .. Citigroup rated Sembcorp Marine as Buy (1) with a target price of S$5.20 Sembcorp marine remains an Outperform with an unchanged target price of $4.80, pegged at 14x CY14 P/E by CIMB Sembcorp Marine: Better than world cup preparations HOLD Price Target : 12-month S$ 4.70 by DBS Vickers |
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 15:05
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SMM - No Surprises In 2Q13 SMM's 2Q13 net profit declined 12.5% y-o-y to SGD124.9m, accounting for 42%-44% of our and consensus forecasts. The lower earnings were primarily due to lower revenue (-7.6% y-o-y) and weaker contributions from Cosco. Operating margin was fairly flat y-o-y at 13%. We deem the results in line as we expect stronger contributions in 2H13 given higher recognition of projects in its orderbook. NEUTRAL, with a SGD4.65 TP.
Source: OSK
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 15:00
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Sembcorp Marine - Efficiency is the Focus 2Q13 results below expectations but for explainable reasons, maintain Buy. 2Q13 revenue came in at SGD1.1b (-8% YoY, +7% QoQ), with PATMI of SGD125m (-13% YoY, +5% QoQ). This was lower than our preview figure of SGD162m, but can be explained by the lower revenue recognised which is entirely a timing issue (we forecasted SGD1.4b in revenue). More importantly, op. margin of 13.0% was within our expected range of 12-13%, although it was bolstered by SGD13.7m one-off gain from property sale. 1H13 PATMI makes up 40% of our previous FY13F forecast and we expect earnings to be back-end loaded. An interim dividend of 5 cts/sh was declared, consistent with past records. Maintain Buy, SOTP-based TP unchanged at SGD5.20. Keeping our operating margin target intact. We keep FY13F headline op. margin forecast of 12.9% intact (1H13: 13.3%). Operating margin would be at 11.8% for 2Q13 and 12.7% for 1H13 if we strip out the one-off property gain, which is still in line with our full year forecast. We view quarterly fluctuations as admissible. We believe that efficiency gains and more ship repair jobs could sustain our FY13F margin expectation. Strong focus on enhancing efficiency. The key focus of the analyst brief was on SMM’s efficiency enhancement plans. Management spent the bulk of the briefing duration to explain the design concept, work flow, and manpower strategies for the Integrated Tuas Yard and the new Brazil yard. It also explained its construction strategy for the Brazil drillships. We came away more positive of its well thought-out plans and believe that these could alleviate the risks in Brazil and be an added support to sustain overall margins. Order wins on track. Orderbook momentum remains on track to meet our full-year forecast of SGD5.2b with YTD order win of SGD3.5b. Net orderbook breached another record high at SGD14.4b. Maintain Buy, TP SGD5.20. We adjust recognition schedule and lower associate contribution from Cosco. Net profit for FY13F is lowered by 5% but FY14F is raised by 3%. We continue to like SMM for its exposure to a strong rigbuilding cycle. Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 2 Aug 2013 |
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 14:54
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What is the news?
Sembcorp Marine’s 1H13 core net profit of S$241mn represents 41%/43% of consensus/PSR FY13 forecast of S$584mn/S$557mn. 2Q13 operating margin of 13.0% was above the market/PSR expectations of 12.2%/12.2%, but was offset by lower-than-expected revenue. Interim dividend was S$0.05/share (same as 1H12). How do we view this?Sembcorp Marine benefited from a gain on disposal of PPE of S$13.7mn in 2Q13. Excluding the one-off gain, we estimate underlying operating margin to be about 12%. We are expecting subsequent decline in operating margins on (1) initial recognition for new products, which includes the 2nd Sete Brasil drillship in 4Q13/1Q14, as well as (2) higher costs on the new integrated yard in Singapore, which will start to contribute to ship repair revenue in 4Q13. Investment Actions?Albeit O& M fundamentals remain sound driven by oil prices and major deepwater discoveries, management sees rig pricing to be under pressure on competition from Chinese and Korean yards. This, in turn, could impact margins. Its YTD contract wins total S$3.5bn and it has a record order book of S$14.4bn. We reduce our associate earnings (mainly from Cosco Shipyard) expectation and make adjustments to finance income/expenses for FY13E, while keeping our FY14E estimates intact. This leads to a 3% decline in our 2013E EPS. Sembcorp Marine’s current valuations appear fair. Maintain NEUTRAL, S$4.42 target price. Source: PhillipCapital Research - 2 Aug 2013 |
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 14:50
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Target S$4.80 (Long Term: Out Perform)
With four jack-up rigs and a semi-sub well intervention rig of larger contract value due for initial profit recognition in 2H13, we expect FY13 net profit to be backloaded. Catalysts for the stock include stronger-than-expected order wins and margins.
1H12 net profit was 43% of our FY13 forecast and 42% of consensus, in line with our expectations of a stronger 2H. Order book is S$14.4bn, with YTD wins at S$3.5bn. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 2-4% for lower associates and interest income. SMM remains an Outperform with an unchanged target price, pegged at 14x CY14 P/E, 10% below O& M's mid-cycle P/E. With c.4% dividend yield, we expect c.10% total return.
Core margin in line 2Q13 EBIT margin of 13.3% (1Q13: 13.7%) included S$13.7m gain on disposal of a satellite workshop. Excluding the gain, EBIT margin would have been 12%, in line with our expectations and SMM's reiterated guidance of 10-13%. 1H13 EBIT margin stood at 13.4%. We adjust our EBIT margin to 13.1% (from 12.6%) for FY13, factoring in higher other income. More upside in 2H13 We expect a stronger 2H13. Firstly, more jobs will reach initial recognition milestone. These include three to four jack-up rigs, high value jobs such as a semi-sub well intervention rig for Helix (contract: US$385.5m) and offshore platform integrated topside for North Sea (contract: S$900m). Secondly, margins for the jack-ups reaching initial recognition could be higher for repeated designs ¨C 6th unit of JU3000N and 10-12th units of PC 400 jack-up rigs. Thirdly, we expect backloading of profits for the remaining seven jack-up rigs due for delivery in 2H13 (three delivered YTD). Finally, US$ appreciation against S$ is a plus due to potential for more forex gain (2Q: S$14m). Mixed orders in 2H13 SMM is on track to meet our S$5bn order target for FY13. Management expects mixed products for 2H13 orders after seeing strong jack-up wins in 1H13 (six units). BOP lead time is longer now (26-30 months), though SMM still has slots for 2015 deliveries for jack-up rigs. |
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krisluke
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02-Aug-2013 14:48
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SembMarine (technical)
SembMarine: Technicals do not look positive in the near-term if counter closes below the 20MA mark at $4.49 today.
Next support level at the 50 MA level of $4.38, followed by the recent low at $4.18.
The offshores were seen struggling yesterday despite trading in a mixed fashion.
Kepcorp managed to strike some gains despite its decline for the past few days. It could be attempting to find support around 10.30 level in order to stage a rebound. Breaking 10.45 resistance level will confirm more upside for Kepcorp.
Sembcorp failed to break its recent high at 5.12 level and started to retrace again. This resistance level seems firm and Sembcorp is now backed to its 20ma line at 5.06 level. Sembcorp will likely to continue to stay at this support level before attempting to break its resistance again.
Sembmar had a buoyant day yesterday as it seems to be breaking out of its resistance at 4.55 level. However, it failed to break its highest level of its recent high at 4.59. Hence, it is uncertain if there is a clear break out. Its earnings report was announced after market hours and it turned out to be of lower in earnings. This could trigger negative impact on Sembmar today. Hence, Sembmar will likely to start retracing back below 4.55 level again and might test its 20ma support at 4.49 level.
Overall, the offshores are likely to trade in a mixed fashion again today.
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Octavia
Elite |
02-Aug-2013 09:30
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2Q13 earnings of $125m (-12.7% y/y) below street estimates of $158m, due mainly to a lower recognition of projects, the number of projects that achieved initial recognition as well as the value and the design of rig building projects. 1H13 operating margin declined to 13.0% in 2Q13 from 13.7% in 1Q13, although SMM benefitted from a one-time gain on disposal. Excluding the one-off gain, underlying operating margin will be c.11.8%. 1H13 operating profit of $290m was 43% of consensus FY13 forecast, as reported operating margin declined to 13.0% in 2Q13 from 13.7% in 1Q13. Sembcorp Marine benefitted from a gain on disposal of PP& E of $13.7m in 2Q13 following the sale of a workshop acquired in 2007. Excluding the one-off gain, CS estimate underlying operating margin will be about 11.8%. Based on street's FY13 operating margin forecast of 12.4%, 2H13 margin is expected to be about 11.7%, driven by the start of profit recognition of new products, including the harsh environment semisub and well intervention semisub. SMM’s new integrated yard in Singapore is expected to commence operation in August 2013, but management does not expect a sharp rise in revenue in 4Q13 as there will be migration of work from existing yards. Its new yard in Brazil is expected to commence operations in 1Q14, and expected capex has been increased to US$600-700 mn (from US$550mn). The first two drillship units are on schedule, with first unit now 35% complete. Since 2013 beginning, the group has secured new orders worth S$3.5bn vs. our estimate of S$6.5bn for the year while net orderbook has increased to $14.4b from $12.7b at the end of 2012. Overall, management expects demand for new rigs to continue to remain high though it highlighted that competition from Chinese and Korean yards also remains intense. Order book secured ytd 3.5b with net orderbook of $14.4b. Brokers' recommendation: CS maintain NEUTRAL with TP of $4.00 Nomura maintain BUY with TP of $5.20 DB has a HOLD with TP of $4.10 Maybank KE has a BUY with TP of $5.20 CIMB has an OUTPERFORM with TP of $4.80 |
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krisluke
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01-Aug-2013 21:24
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more analysts update tmr...
Stay tune.. ...
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krisluke
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01-Aug-2013 21:22
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Sembcorp Marine: 2Q Net Profit S$124.9 Million Vs S$142.8 Million Year Ago By Gaurav Raghuvanshi SINGAPORE--Sembcorp Marine Ltd. (S51.SG) said Thursday its second-quarter net profit fell 12.5% from a year earlier primarily because of lower contributions from associate companies. Net profit for the three months ended June 30 was 124.9 million Singapore dollars (US$98.2 million), down from S$142.8 million a year earlier, the world's second-largest builder of offshore oil rigs by volume said in a statement to the Singapore Exchange. Sembcorp Marine, the marine engineering arm of conglomerate Sembcorp Industries Ltd. (U96.SG), said turnover fell 7.6% to S$1.12 billion. " Fundamentals for the offshore and marine industry remain stable underpinned by high oil prices and projected increases in offshore exploration and production spending," the company said in the statement. Demand for rigs is expected to remain strong but competition from the Chinese and Korean yards will impact margin, it said. Sembcorp Marine has an order book worth S$14.4 billion, with deliveries scheduled through 2019. The company has received new orders worth S$3.5 billion so far this year, according to the statement. The company proposed an interim dividend of 5 Singapore cents per share to be paid on Aug. 29, according to the statement. Write to Gaurav Raghuvanshi at gaurav.raghuvanshi@dowjones.com Order free Annual Report for SembCorp Marine Ltd. Visit http://djnweurope.ar.wilink.com/?ticker=SG1H97877952 or call +44 (0)208 391 6028 Order free Annual Report for SembCorp Industries Ltd. Visit http://djnweurope.ar.wilink.com/?ticker=SG1R50925390 or call +44 (0)208 391 6028 Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires (END) Dow Jones Newswires August 01, 2013 05:48 ET (09:48 GMT) Copyright (c) 2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
01-Aug-2013 18:26
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Dividend $0.05 pay on 29th August Same as last 1H 2012 |
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