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STI
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
15-Sep-2008 11:18
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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11 pts more donw to hit 2.5k. US tonite-capacity utilisation Aug & industrial production Aug. 2morrow nite, CPI & FOMC policy statement. Don't expect good on the abovementioned, AK view. |
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remisier
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15-Sep-2008 10:38
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STI is diving to 2500 now. There could be chance of rebounding around 2400 level. |
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remisier
Member |
11-Sep-2008 16:13
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one step closer today to 1800. Each day plunge more than 1% appears like spring cleaning. But I expect the rebound around 2350 and then sideway before the final plunge. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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remisier
Member |
08-Sep-2008 22:38
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another supportive fact that STI potentially hit 1800: Asian stocks soar after Freddie and Fannie bail out. Straits Times Index have gained 4% but the gain mainly concentrated mainly due to short covering. There doesnt seem to be any broad based rally. DBS Group Research has just sent out the downward target of STI which is heading towards 2300 level as potential retreat in bank stocks which have hold up quite well. In my previous posting my immediate STI target is 2321 with the worst case target of 1800. This sounds too extreme and there will be a lot of arguments against it as it means, STI would have to wipe out almost 80% of its gain. If we study the Singapore market from longterm perspective over past 20 years, weve just completed 3 big bull rallies. During the 1st big bull rally (1987 - 1995) we saw STI gave up more than 80% of its gain. In the 2nd big bull rally (1998-2000) the STI gave up 78.6% before bottoming progress for 1.5 years. If the history to repeat itself and this recent big bull rally which started in 2003 and ended in 2007, the STI could retreat towards 1800 level. The 1800 coincides with the important pullback of 78.6% and the uptrend support line drawn from the bottom of last rally. If we look into recent inclusion of cyclical stocks in commodity (Olam, Noble, Wilmar) and shipping (Cosco, Yanzijiang) as well as potential further devaluation of property (Yanlord, Keppel Land, Capitaland) plus end of oil boom which could affect index stocks such as Keppel Corp, Sembcorp, Semb Marine, and the financial meltdown which will soon or later affect the banks, the 1800 may not sound too extreme. 
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Sep-2008 06:58
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Great Post ! based on the chart, it is very convincing. sound like the bottom process takes more than a year to recover, seems like the strong rebound start only in 2010... Hope by then, it will prove your analysis right. Great one! thanks ... if that's true, you are the next King Remisier, heeee. next after Peter Lim ... heee..
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chinastar
Senior |
08-Sep-2008 03:55
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STI will touch 2300 soon. Beware
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bsiong
Supreme |
07-Sep-2008 10:29
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Good post, tks. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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remisier
Member |
07-Sep-2008 01:28
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The above chart tells the story of past 2 cycle. the tech boom/bust and the past boom and ongoing bust. The difference of both are the magnitude and the duration. Both fibonacci retracements are drawn on the past tech bust and the current ongoing bear cycle. Just look at how similar the A, B, C and X, Y, Z cycles. A-A1 = 31% A1-B = 21% B-B1 = 29% X-X1 = 30% X1-Y= 19% Y - Y1 = 3270 - Y1 = 29% -> Y1 = 2321 Based on above calculation the current downtrend projected as Y1 could be at 2321 level before a any meaningful rebound. The bottom of the current bear market could find its low at 78.6% fibo retracement or at 1800 level. |
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mirage
Veteran |
27-Jun-2008 09:15
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Bloomberg News U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression By Michael Patterson  June 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst June since the Great Depression, as record oil prices, credit-market writedowns and a slowing economy threatened to extend a yearlong profit slump. General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, plunged the most in three years as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised selling the stock and crude rose by $5 a barrel. Citigroup Inc. led the KBW Bank Index to an almost 10-year low as Goldman said the lender may report an $8.9 billion second-quarter charge and cut its dividend. Research In Motion Ltd., maker of the BlackBerry, posted its biggest drop since 2001 on concern competition with Apple Inc.'s iPhone is reducing earnings. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index plunged 38.82, or 2.9 percent, to 1,283.15, its biggest drop in three weeks. The Dow decreased 358.41, or 3 percent, to 11,453.42, its lowest since September 2006. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 79.89, or 3.3 percent, to 2,321.37, its worst loss since January. Almost nine stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. ``Most investors are going to sit on the sidelines until they're more certain the sharks have left the waters and it's safe to go back in,'' said Bruce McCain, the Cleveland-based head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank, which oversees about $30 billion. ``The write-offs have been far worse than anyone would have imagined.'' Nike Earnings All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 retreated at least 1 percent as Nike Inc. said U.S. earnings dropped and Oracle Corp. predicted the slowest sales growth since 2006, adding to concern that consumers and businesses are cutting back as the economy expands at the weakest pace in five years. Earnings at companies in the S&P 500 slid 18 percent on average in the first quarter, the third straight retreat, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts project profits will drop 8.9 percent this quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey last week. The Dow has slumped 9.4 percent this month, its worst June since an 18 percent tumble in 1930 during the Great Depression. All 30 companies have posted losses in the month as oil surged, the unemployment rate jumped to the highest since 2004 and concern grew that global financial firms will add to $400 billion of subprime-related writedowns. The Dow's retreat today erased all the gains since mid- March that were spurred by JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., a drop in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate to 2 percent and the central bank's new lending programs for securities firms. Citigroup, Merrill Citigroup dropped $1.18, or 6.3 percent, to $17.67 today, the lowest level since October 1998. Goldman added the biggest U.S. lender by assets to its ``conviction sell'' list and lowered its recommendation on U.S. brokerages to ``neutral'' from ``attractive,'' saying the pace of deterioration in the industry ``appears to be far worse than'' it originally anticipated. Merrill Lynch & Co., the third-largest U.S. securities firm, declined $2.41 to $33.05, a five-year low. Goldman analysts predicted the company will post a $3.55-a-share loss in 2008, compared with their previous estimate for an 8-cent profit. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, a so-called exchange traded fund that tracks U.S. financial stocks, lost 3.6 percent to $20.90, the lowest since March 2003. The shares, known by their XLF ticker, were the fourth most-traded among stocks and ETFs in New York today. The KBW Bank Index of 24 companies dropped 3.9 percent to 60.20, the lowest since October 1998. `Ugly Day' ``It's another ugly day,'' said James Dunigan, the Philadelphia-based chief investment officer at PNC Advisors, which manages $70 billion. ``Until we get through another round of disclosures and through earnings season, the safest place is on the sidelines.'' Research In Motion plunged $18.88, or 13 percent, to $123.46. Second-quarter earnings will be as low as 84 cents a share, the company said. That missed the average prediction by analysts of 92 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey. The report marked Research In Motion's first earnings disappointment in five quarters. Apple shares declined $9.13, or 5.2 percent, to $168.26, the lowest since April 23. GM fell $1.38, or 11 percent, to $11.43, the steepest slide since March 2005 and lowest price since 1974. Lear Corp., the second-largest maker of vehicle seats, lost $2.97, or 16 percent, to $15.15. Goldman downgraded both stocks to ``sell'' from ``neutral.'' `Escalating Headwinds' ``We expect escalating headwinds from volume/mix pressures driven by gas prices, falling confidence and tightening credit,'' Goldman wrote in a research note. GM and Chrysler LLC may face a cash crunch next year as U.S. sales decline on a slowing economy and rising gasoline prices that push buyers toward more fuel-efficient vehicles, Fitch Ratings said yesterday. Chrysler spokesman Dave Elshoff said in an interview today that the company has no plans to file for bankruptcy, countering speculation in financial markets. Companies in the S&P 500 that rely on discretionary consumer spending lost 3.5 percent as a group after oil prices jumped to $139.64 a barrel on Libya's threat to cut production and OPEC's prediction that prices may reach $170 by the summer. Nike retreated $6.47, or 9.8 percent, to $59.50, the biggest drop since February 2001. The world's largest athletic- shoe maker said pretax income in the U.S. declined 10 percent to $390.7 million in the three months that ended May 31. U.S. orders through November were unchanged. Oracle, Lennar Oracle slipped $1.13 to $21.42. The world's second-largest software maker expects first-quarter profit before some items of 26 cents to 27 cents a share. Analysts predicted 27 cents, according to the average of 16 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Sales will rise between 18 percent and 20 percent, Oracle said. Lennar Corp. spurred declines in homebuilders after the company reported a loss that exceeded analysts' estimates as it cut prices to attract buyers. The shares fell $1.23, or 8.4 percent, to $13.34. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index lost 5.6 percent as all 15 of its companies retreated. The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, climbed for the first time this week, gaining 13 percent to 23.93. The index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, reached the highest level since June 11. The VIX is still 26 percent below its five-year closing high in March. Economy Watch The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 1 percent in the first quarter, capping the weakest six months of growth in five years, the Commerce Department said today. The revised gain in gross domestic product was up from a preliminary estimate of 0.9 percent issued last month. Initial jobless claims totaled 384,000 in the week ended June 21, unchanged from the previous week's tally that was higher than previously estimated, the Labor Department said. The total number of people collecting benefits rose by 82,000 to 3.139 million in the week ended June 14, the highest since February 2004. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. climbed $1.22, or 4.3 percent, to $29.79 for the top gain in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. home- furnishings retailer reported profit that fell less than analysts estimated because of higher sales. European stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index down 2.6 percent, as Belgium-based lender Fortis scrapped its dividend and said it will sell shares. Asian stocks advanced. Treasuries rose on speculation credit-market losses will prevent the Fed from increasing borrowing costs later this year. The dollar declined to the weakest level against the euro in more than two weeks. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index, the broadest measure of U.S. shares, fell 2.8 percent to 13,125.12. Based on its decline, the value of stocks decreased by $477.5 billion. ``It's the end of the quarter, oil is up and you've got a continued bashing of financials,'' said David Heupel, who helps oversee about $60 billion as a portfolio manager at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans in Minneapolis. ``Plenty of fuel for the fire today.'' To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in New York at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: June 26, 2008 18:23 EDT |
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lookcc
Master |
26-Jun-2008 20:53
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2morrow sti green or red depends on oil px. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
26-Jun-2008 19:52
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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its a balancing game bt inflation and recession. save the right but lost the left. how? the moral of the storry is that CO must go down loh, with apprehending those CO future speculators, at least to ease a bit of tension. other factors, play by eyes leow. |
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HLJHLJ
Veteran |
26-Jun-2008 16:30
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In my opinion, I think FED should raise rate slightly to calm inflation first and send a signal that they are serious about inflation. I think it is a bad move. They can then raise reduce it later once inflation is calmed. |
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mirage
Veteran |
26-Jun-2008 13:46
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mirage
Veteran |
26-Jun-2008 13:33
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Quotes: Singapore shares were higher in early trade on Thursday, tracking Wall Street's modest gains overnight after the Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 2 percent, but investors remained wary of strong inflationary pressures that may further weaken the global economy. "Although the [U.S.] economy is still weak, the problem of inflation is real. The chances of interest rates going up in the coming months are greater. That would affect sentiment in the market," said Phillip Securities managing director Loh Hoon Sun. The Fed left open the timing of a possible rise in interest rates to curb the continued rise in prices that may further weaken the U.S. economy. Portfolio fund managers may not accumulate as much stocks to boost their investment books given prevailing concerns about soaring inflation that may translate into weak corporate earnings going forward, analysts said. At 9:52 a.m. (0152 GMT), the benchmark Straits Times Index was up 17.77 points or 0.6 percent at 3,004.39. Gainers outnumbered decliners 168 to 97 with 1,227 stocks unchanged. There were 220.7 million shares traded, valued at S$334.7 million. Banking stocks were higher, with DBS Group up 0.7 percent at S$19.20, United Overseas Bank up 0.8 percent at S$19.14 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp 1.2 percent higher at S$8.43. Among other blue chips, Singapore Telecom rose 0.3 percent to S$3.76, Singapore Airlines gained 1.6 percent to S$15.18 and Singapore Exchange added 0.4 percent to S$7.13. Coal producer Straits Asia Resources extended its gains, jumping 3.6 percent to S$3.47 after assuring investors its two mines will produce 9 million tonnes of coal this year. The company also expressed confidence it will get approval for its mine expansion before the end of the year. Property stocks were also higher, with CapitaLand adding 0.3 percent to S$5.74, City Developments up 2.0 percent at S$11.06 and Keppel Land firming 0.2 percent to S$5.17. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
25-Jun-2008 18:23
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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AK guess, if DJ tonite up couple of pts, STI will like chiong a bit in the morning and following by profit taking in pm tomorrow. coming Fri gonna be a quiet day if DJ don't perform in Thu. |
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mirage
Veteran |
25-Jun-2008 15:28
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Quotes: Singapore shares were higher at midday on Wednesday, driven by a rebound in select blue chips following recent losses, although investors were largely cautious ahead of the outcome later in the day of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 2.0 percent following a series of rate cuts since September. Market watchers will also be keenly watching the Fed's accompanying statement for clues on the outlook for the world's biggest economy. At midday, the Straits Times index was up 11.02 points or 0.4 percent at 2,973.18, after trading between 2,943.12 and 2,974.63. But on the broader market, decliners beat gainers 195 to 176, with 1,118 stocks unchanged. There were 498.21 million shares traded, valued at S$568.77 million. "It's all very small movements," said Terence Wong, research head at DMG & Partners Securities. "There are no fresh leads." Market participation has been lacklustre as macroeconomic concerns, including high oil prices and rising inflation, continued to weigh on sentiment. "There is still a lot of uncertainty clouding the picture for the financial sector, with the continued [subprime] writedowns," Action Economics chief economist David Cohen added. Local banking stocks, which have suffered despite being relatively protected from the subprime crisis, rebounded. DBS Group was up 1.6 percent at S$19.04, United Overseas Bank 0.2 percent up 0.8 percent at S$18.72 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp up 1.0 percent at S$8.27. In the property sector, CapitaLand slipped 0.7 percent to S$5.71 and Keppel Land lost 0.2 percent to S$5.11. But City Developments rose 3.05 percent to S$10.80 after Citigroup upgraded its rating on the property developer to "buy" from "hold" in view of limited downside for the stock. Overall, property stocks appear close to bottom levels at their current prices, the brokerage said. "We believe there is still an overall housing shortage in Singapore and we remain optimistic that demand will return once prices have corrected," Citigroup said. Among other blue chips, Singapore Telecom rose 1.1 percent to S$3.71, Singapore Exchange added 0.7 percent to S$7.14, while Keppel Corp fell 0.4 percent to S$11.12. Elsewhere, Singapore-based offshore support and marine services provider Ezra Holdings was up 3.7 percent at S$2.84 after saying its unit Norway-listed EOC Ltd has secured a $400-million contract for the charter of EOC's first floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel. Mapletree Logistics Trust tumbled 4.8 percent to S$0.885 after it announced a rights issue to raise about S$606.7 million to strengthen its balance sheet. The rights issue at S$0.73 represents a 21.4 percent discount to the stock's average weighted price on June 24. ($1 = S$1.36) |
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mirage
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25-Jun-2008 15:25
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STI now is up 18.71 pts.
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mirage
Veteran |
27-May-2008 08:54
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Quotes: Singapore shares closed lower for the fifth straight session on Monday as the unexpected fall in the city-state's factory output last month added to investors' unease over an economic outlook that is already clouded by soaring inflation. Government data showed Singapore's manufacturing output fell 5.7 percent in April from a year earlier, reversing March's strong growth as production of both drugs and electronics shrank. Economists polled by Thomson IFR had expected output in the month from Singapore's factories to increase by 15.1 percent on average, compared to the revised 18.1 percent growth in March. "Industrial production disappointed market expectations," Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said in a note. "The data is probably evidence that the slowdown in the U.S. is steadily spreading to the rest of the world." Oil prices continued to trade above $130 a barrel, fueling concerns about spiralling inflation, which could further weaken economic activity, analysts said. "At the end of the day, it's all about investors keeping an eye on the inflationary risks of high energy costs for the global economy," said Song Seng Wun, chief economist at CIMB-GK Research. High food and energy costs triggered Singapore's inflation to jump to a 26-year high of 7.5 percent in April. "Inflation is a worry, but last month's jump is just a one-month figure. I would actually wait for a few more months to confirm whether this is actually a long-term worry," said DMG & Partners dealing director Gabriel Yap. The benchmark Straits Times Index fell 18.85 points or 0.6 percent to close at 3,103.30. There were 1.20 billion shares traded, valued at S$1.50 billion. Decliners outnumbered gainers 490 to 162, with 945 stocks unchanged. Market weakness can be expected going into the traditionally quiet month of June, but the market could also be well supported as the usual bear market cycle, which historically takes eight to 10 months to complete in Singapore, has nearly run its course, said Yap. Banking stocks were mixed, with United Overseas Bank rising 3.7 percent to S$19.64, DBS Group falling 1.2 percent at S$19.32 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp dropping 1.6 percent to S$8.65. Among blue chips, Singapore Airlines was down 1.8 percent at S$15.50 and Singapore Exchange down 2.6 percent at S$8.16. Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) closed flat at S$3.61. The company's Indian associate, Bharti Airtel, has called off merger talks with South Africa's MTN Group. The failure of a merger agreement provided short-term relief to SingTel shares, which had fallen by 6.7 percent following the initial announcement of the potential merger on May 5 on fears that Bharti would overpay and be overburdened with debt, said Khoo Chen Hsung, CIMB-GK analyst in a client note. Offshore and marine stocks were lower on profit-taking after recent strength. SembCorp Marine retreated 2.9 percent to S$4.35, Keppel Corp fell 2.0 percent to S$11.56 and COSCO Corp declined 2.1 percent to S$3.29. Property heavyweights were mixed, with CapitaLand unchanged at S$6.30 while City Developments slipped 0.4 percent to S$11.00 and Keppel Land shed 0.2 percent to S$5.47. Creative Technology Ltd., a Singapore-based manufacturer of consumer electronics gadgets such as MP3 players, retreated 1.4 percent to S$6.41after it said over the weekend that it would incur $15 million in restructuring charges in its fourth fiscal quarter to June. |
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AK_Francis
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26-May-2008 11:44
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Ha, it didn't fail the prediction given by ALL. Tks for the advice, no deal today. |
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mirage
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26-May-2008 09:07
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Quotes: Singapore shares are expected to open lower on Monday after Wall Street's plunge on Friday amid heightened concerns that rising oil prices will crimp economic growth. Investors are also expected to remain sidelined in the absence of fresh buying incentives, with the U.S. markets closed for a holiday on Monday. On Friday, the benchmark Straits Times Index dropped 38.71 points or 1.2 percent to close at an intraday low of 3,122.15. The index lost 119.34 points or 3.7 percent over the week. Decliners outnumbered gainers 409 to 224, with 960 stocks unchanged. There were 1.65 billion shares traded valued at S$1.7 billion. Concerns about slowing economic growth in the United States, a key export market for Singapore, will continue to hound investors. "The full economic fallout from the U.S. housing slump, the credit crunch and surging oil prices is yet to be seen. Inflation worries also have the potential to upset share markets in the short term," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. |
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