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Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar International
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New123
Elite |
17-Dec-2010 17:12
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Wow BBs buying up in big volume. It is moving up liao.. Wilmar |
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bsiong
Supreme |
17-Dec-2010 09:15
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Wilmar - Technical Analysis
Wilmar stock violated the uptrend line drawn from the May low as well as the previously broken downtrend line from the August peak on Tuesday. The downside correction that started after the stock peaked out at 6.93 on November 9 could therefore extend towards solid support at 5.88. The mid-term technical bias is neutral. A close back above prior support and now resistance at 6.15/6.18 is needed to negate the recent sell signal and improve the short-term outlook. Potential initial upside target would be near 6.48. Longer-term key resistance is seen 6.54-6.64. |
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New123
Elite |
16-Dec-2010 15:53
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I think it has been oversold. Time for it to move up and break-out $6 mark soon. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
16-Dec-2010 09:49
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Wilmar International (WIL SP, $5.92, HOLD, TP $6.24) – We downgrade Wilmar to HOLD in view of the risk of margin compression due to higher raw material costs as a result of rising commodity prices. Moreover, the company may be limited in its ability to pass on these cost hikes due to price controls on food staples in China . Our new price target is $6.24. /kim eng/ |
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New123
Elite |
01-Oct-2010 11:10
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I think can consider to buy some if the price come down to $5.85. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
29-Nov-2007 09:31
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This bond sale seems to be pulling down its own share price. Wilmar International Ltd ? Plans to raise US$500m in its first convertible bond sale, according to an e-mail sent to investors yesterday. The Singapore-based company can increase the sale by US$100m to US$600m, depending on demand, the document shows. Singapore's DBS Group Holdings, Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Kuala Lumpur-based CIMB Bhd are managing the sale of the zero-coupon debt. Investors can convert the five-year securities into Wilmar shares at between $5.38 and $5.67 apiece, equivalent to as much as a 35% premium to the price before trading in the stock was suspended yesterday, the e-mail shows. Selling low-cost debt will enable Wilmar to repay existing borrowings and expand, as funding costs rise on concerns that losses tied to defaulted US sub-prime mortgages will deepen. Wilmar plans to redeem the bonds at between 114.35% and 117.78% of the face value if the securities are not converted into shares before maturity, offering investors an annual yield of as much as 3.3%, the e-mail shows. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
29-Nov-2007 08:28
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RESEARCH ALERT-Macquarie Research ups Wilmar to "outperform" SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Macquarie Research has raised its rating on shares of Wilmar International "We believe current share price levels present an opportunity to accumulate the stock," said Macquarie Research analyst Gerald Sheah said in a client note. Macquarie Research kept its 12-month price target of S$5.05 on the world's biggest listed palm oil firm by market value. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
19-Nov-2007 21:19
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UBS - S trong Q3 results; JV with Olam �� Follow up to our earlier brief note Further to our brief note published following the Q3 results, we are following up with a more detailed report. In summary, Q3 was a very strong quarter with profits nearly 55% above expectations due to both volumes and margins being better than expected. �� Strong growth and margins could sustain Margins have increased in part due to synergies due to the merger (this increase looks sustainable) as well as due to good timing of raw material purchases by management. We believe the macro environment remains strong enough to sustain the strong growth, though we price in some softening of margins from the strong Q3-07 results. �� JV with Olam positve Wilmar and Olam are setting up a 50/50 JV in Africa to initially acquire plantation, refining and branded consumer oil assets. We believe with Olam?s strong local market knowledge in Africa and Wilmar?s strength in oilseeds, the two together could form a formidable entity in the soft commodities space in Africa. �� Valuation: S$5.90 Our valuation of S$5.90 is based on sum of the parts of P/E based valuation of plantation business and DCF for the balance. We have used a target 27x P/E for Wilmar?s plantation business (based on weighted average of target 30x P/E for IOI for Malaysian profits and 20x target P/E for Indonesian profits). We have raised horizon period growth from 20% earlier to 30%. We have not changed our CoE assumption at 8.9% and terminal growth at 3%. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
17-Nov-2007 00:43
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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All these valuable comments are not use at this moment. Leave the market for at least a month, after X/ mas. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
16-Nov-2007 15:16
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Lehman Brothers - Fully valued - downgrade to 2-EW Investment Conclusion Following Wilmar's recent strong share price performance (up 55% over the past 3 months vs STI up 4%) we are downgrading to 2-EW from 1- OW, as there is only 4% potential upside to our revised price target of $5.0, which is based on DCF. We maintain our view that Wilmar is a prime beneficiary of 'agflation', but believe that the pace of agriculture commodity inflation will slow in the coming months as markets digest a period of extraordinary growth. We believe that the current 08E PE multiple of around 30x accurately reflects Wilmar's sustainable earnings growth rate of 25- 30% over the next few years. Summary �� Wilmar reported 3Q07 NPAT of US$195m, which exceeded our and the market's expectations by around 27%. On a YoY basis, NPAT rose 175% although this is not comparable due to merger accounting. �� We are raising 07E/08E/09E NPAT by 18%/7%/9% to reflect the stronger-than-expected earnings. �� Upside risks could emerge from further supply shocks to agriculture commodities or a quickerthan- anticipated fruition of Wilmar's ventures into flour milling, for example. 3Q07 results review Wilmar reported 3Q07 NPAT of US$195m, representing an increase of 175% YoY and exceeding our expectations as well as consensus by around 27%. The results were important because they represent the first full consolidated financial statements of the merged entity and indicated strong earnings growth at WHPL and KOG, whose 1H07 earnings had previously not been disclosed. The key reason for the better-than-expected results was a sharp improvement in the oilseeds and grains division (representing the WHPL assets), which benefited from a sharp increase in soymeal prices during 3Q07. Stripping out the impact of the merger, we estimate that growth in the key ?merchandising and processing? and ?consumer products? segments was in the region of 25-30%. Even taking into account a seasonally stronger 3Q07, we were impressed with the strong margin growth achieved in 3Q07. PBT per MT rose to US$20.3/t from US$16.5/t for the palm and laurics section, and by US$23.8/t from US$16.2/t for the oilseeds and grains divisions. We believe the dramatic improvements in the margins were aided by a combination of merger synergies and rising endproduct prices throughout the quarter. Raising earnings estimates and price target; Downgrade to 2-EW To take into account the stronger-than-expected earnings, higher CPO price assumption for 2008E and 2009E (US$725/t vs US$685/t previously), and higher margin assumptions for the oilseeds and grains division (raising operating margin assumption by US$2/t for 08E and 09E), we are raising 07E/08E/09E NPAT assumptions by 18%/7%/9%, respectively. However, as there is only 4% potential upside to the share price from current levels, we are downgrading our rating to 2-EW from 1-OW previously. Our new price target of $5.0 implies a FY08E PE of 30x, which we believe accurately reflects the organic growth potential of Wilmar, which we estimate to be in the region of 25-30% pa. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
15-Nov-2007 21:55
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DBS Vickers - Still in expansionary mode �� Story: Wilmar?s 9M07 results were stronger than expected. Net profit came in at US$346.4 million (+101.4% y-o-y), translating to 3Q07 net profit of US$195.2 million (+174.8% y-oy). The jump was mainly attributable to the inclusion of threemonth contribution of KOG, four-month contribution of PGEO, four-month contribution of PPBOP and restated year-to-date contribution of the IPT assets �� Point: Compared to our forecasts, the difference lies in the merchandising and processing segment profits, which were higher on the back of post-merger operational synergies, economies of scale, as well as extended value chain. Other operating income and minority interests were also higher than anticipated. �� Relevance: We have adjusted our forecasts to take into account higher merchandising and processing segment profits, other operating income as well as higher minority interests, resulting in EPS upgrade of 26.7% for FY07, 25.3% for FY08 and 29.0% for FY09. Our valuation on the company has consequently been raised to S$5.55/share ? based on 10-year DCF (using WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth of 3%), implying 22.9x FY08 EPS. At the current price, the stock still offers upside potential in excess of 15%, excluding dividends. Maintain Buy. Start of full consolidation This is the first quarter that the group consolidated all its merged entities, after announcing its merger with the Kuok Group and the acquisition of the parent company?s edible oils, grains and other businesses in December 2006. The company has also revised its presentation format, in which the previous category of soybean, oilseeds and soybean meal merchandising and refinery division was renamed oilseeds and grains merchandising and processing (M&P) division. The group?s consumer edible oil packs are now also under a separate category to emphasise its growing importance. 9M07 net profit jumped by 101.4% y-o-y This was mainly due to the inclusion of three-month earnings of KOG, four-month earnings for PGEO and PPBOP; as well as restated yearto- date earnings from the parent company?s assets (or so called IPT assets). On the operating side, the group?s merchandising and processing volume also rose by 23.6% y-o-y for oilseeds and by 28.0% for palm and lauric. As a result of the merger, the group also benefited from cost synergies, more efficient shipping arrangements, higher economies of scale, and improved market intelligence. This boosted the group?s merchandising and processing pretax profit to over US$20.0/MT for both oilseeds as well as palm and lauric. In comparison, 1H07 pretax profit for palm and lauric was only US$13.7/MT (based on production volume). We had anticipated pretax margin of just US$10.3/MT. Still down y-o-y, but FFB yields are recovering in 3Q07 On the group?s plantation business, although 9M07 FFB yield of 15.2 MT/ha was still below last year?s 16.6 MT/ha, it had noticeably improved q-o-q. We expect this recovery to carry through to the fourth quarter. With the inclusion of PPBOP, CPO production grew by 54.7% y-o-y while PK production likewise increased by 53.1%. Given a 60.5% y-o-y jump in CPO prices, the plantations? revenues doubled to US$547.8 m. Chinese consumer edible oil pack having a higher contribution Wilmar also reported a seven-fold increase in revenues from consumer products (which includes edible oil packs in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh). The jump was mainly due to the inclusion of KOG consumer products businesses (including China?s top brand, Arawana), which increased Wilmar?s total fractionation capacity by 4.5 m MT p.a. Other differences came from other income and minority interest The group reported other income of US$74.1 million, which was significantly higher compared to our forecast of only US$19.7 million. The difference came from 3.8% y-o-y appreciation of the RMB, which resulted in FX gains of US$39 million. Additionally, there was a US$5.0 million incentive from the Chinese government pertaining to infrastructure investments in remote provinces. Higher rental income from storage tanks and toll processing fees also contributed. The reported minority interest was also booked higher at US$41.8 million ? vis-à-vis our forecast of US$8.1 for the full year. The difference came about as a result of stronger than expected performance of subsidiaries in China operations (which we believe were attributable to IPT assets). These were previously unaccounted for. FY07, FY08 and FY09 EPS raised, price target upgraded Accounting for the strong pretax margins on the group?s merchandising and processing segment, we have now raised palm and lauric pretax margin to US$20.0/MT from US$10.3/MT. Oilseeds and grains pretax margins were likewise increased to US$18.0/MT from US$6.3/MT (the management?s previous guidance was between US$5 and US$15/MT). After adjusting for higher other income to US$98.9m and US$60.0m minority interests, we have raised FY07, FY08 and FY09 EPS to 9.9 US cents, 14.6 US cents, and 16.1 US cents, representing upgrades of 26.7%, 25.3% and 29%, respectively. Based on the new forecasts, our valuation on the company has thus been raised to S$5.55/share ? based on 10-year DCF (using WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth of 3%), implying 22.9x FY08 EPS. At yesterday?s closing price, our new target price hence offers potential upside yield of 15.1%, excluding dividend yield of 0.7%. Near and long-term visibility still optimistic We expect 4Q07 earnings to improve by at least 10% on the back of continued strong prices and stable volume. The group?s recent venture in Russia is expected to provide more room for growth going forward. The company is considering new opportunities in expanding its oil palm and rubber estates in Africa, given the continent?s palm oil supply deficit (hence higher prices), higher rubber yields, proximity to Europe (hence lower freight costs), as well as preferential import duties to EU. |
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limhpp
Veteran |
15-Nov-2007 14:28
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This is the strongest share this year I guess.... Too bad not vested. 
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Pinnacle
Master |
15-Nov-2007 14:23
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CIMB - Wilmar International (S$4.82) - 3QFY07 results - Merger benefits came early Above expectations. 3Q07 net profit grew 175% yoy to US$195.2m, thanks to better performances from its China division, palm-oil refining and oilseed crushing units and additional contributions from its new subsidiaries, PPB Oil Palms and PGEO Group. Annualising the 3Q numbers, we estimate that the results were 17% and 20% above our estimate and consensus, on a combination of: 1) better-than-expected contributions from its oilseeds and grains business; 2) better consumer products business in China; and 3) higher refining volume and margins. Merger benefits evident in 3Q. We were most impressed with the group?s ability to deliver merger benefits in 3Q, so soon after the completion of its merger exercise in Jun 07. The group achieved cost-savings in merchandising, manufacturing and logistics as it successfully expanded its distribution networks and market intelligence post-merger. These savings were partially reflected in higher PBT per tonne (based on sales volume) for its merchandising and processing unit as well as consumer products unit. Earnings forecasts upgraded. We understand that 3Q earnings are seasonally stronger due to festive holidays in China and higher palm production from its estates. However, higher CPO prices, strong oilseed and edible oil demand from China coupled with potential additional merger benefits are expect to keep 4Q net profit strong. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts for FY07-09 by 14-31% to account for new CPO price assumptions as well as higher-than-expected margins from its refining and crushing divisions. Maintain Outperform. Our target price has been raised from S$3.90 to S$5.70 following our earnings upgrade and after rolling forward our target basis to end-CY08. There is no change to our 25.6x forward P/E target. The group is well-placed to benefit from projected strong growth in global edible oils demand and strong consumption growth in China, in our opinion. It is a leading merchandiser of consumer-pack edible oils in China, accounting for close to half of the country?s market. Key share-price triggers could include higher CPO prices, better merger savings and earnings-accretive M&As. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
15-Nov-2007 14:15
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Pinnacle
Master |
15-Nov-2007 13:54
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DBS Vickers - Still in expansionary mode????? Buy S$4.82; Price Target : 12 months S$ 5.55 (Prev S$4.55) Story: Wilmars 9M07 results were stronger than expected. Net profit came in at US$346.4 million (+101.4% y-o-y), translating to 3Q07 net profit of US$195.2 million (+174.8% y-o-y). The jump was mainly attributable to the inclusion of three-month contribution of KOG, four-month contribution of PGEO, four-month contribution of PPBOP and restated year-to-date contribution of the IPT assets Point: Compared to our forecasts, the difference lies in the merchandising and processing segment profits, which were higher on the back of post-merger operational synergies, economies of scale, as well as extended value chain. Other operating income and minority interests were also higher than anticipated. Relevance: We have adjusted our forecasts to take into account higher merchandising and processing segment profits, other operating income as well as higher minority interests, resulting in EPS upgrade of 26.7% for FY07, 25.3% for FY08 and 29.0% for FY09. Our valuation on the company has consequently been raised to S$5.55/share based on 10-year DCF (using WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth of 3%), implying 22.9x FY08 EPS. At the current price, the stock still offers upside potential in excess of 15%, excluding dividends. Maintain Buy. |
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