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pharoah88
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04-Oct-2011 18:05

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P U T 944

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pharoah88
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04-Oct-2011 10:54

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Regional technology outlook - NEGATIVE

We attended the Gartner 17th Annual Asia Pacific Semiconductor Roadshow 2011 yesterday morning. Comments from the presenters were generally negative on the semiconductor sales and semiconductor equipment outlook.

1) Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast - Gartner has recently revised down worldwide semiconductor sales to negative 0.1% yoy growth in 2011, down from a positive 5.1%. For 2012, Gartner is projecting lower growth of 4.6% vs. 8.6% earlier. If the economy takes a turn for the worse, Gartner projects a greater negative growth of 2.2% for 2011, and a negative 4.9% in 2012.

2) LED market - The outlook for the LED in the near term is negative due to the oversupply in LED, reduction in the number of BLUs used in per LCD TV, decrease in demand for PCs and with the decrease in ASP for LED lamps. However, the long term growth prospect remains strong, with LED lighting set for explosive growth from 2012 to 2015 as it replaces traditional lighting systems as prices fall. Due to the competitiveness in the industry, Gartner believes that M& As and consolidation in this sector will be inevitable.

3) Tablets - Gartner also reduced its growth expectation for tablets in 2011 due to the weaker-than-expected sales of non-Apple tablets. Apple continued to dominate the media tablet market. However, Gartner still expect total TAM for Media tablets to reach 80% of mobile PC sales by 2015, this represents a growth rate of CAGR 77% in 2010-15.

4) Semiconductor manufacturing outlook - Semiconductor manufacturing slowdown is across the board. The weakness started in 3Q11 and is expected to continue in 2012. The market is expected to recover in 2013 once the oversupply eases. Capital spending is expected to decline about 20% yoy in 2012.

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pharoah88
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28-Sep-2011 15:44

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Prime office rents hit by global woes

SINGAPORE

Prime office properties in the Central Business District (CBD) were hit the hardest in the third quarter of this year, with monthly rents for Grade A offices rising by a marginal 2 per cent to S$9.08 psf from the previous quarter. This is the lowest quarterly growth since the second quarter of last year, according to a report by Colliers International.

The overall gross monthly rents for Grade A offices in the CBD area are also at 36.1 per cent below the S$14.22 psf per month achieved during the peak in the third quarter of 2008, the report said.

In the Raffles Place/New Downtown area, Grade A office rents did slightly better, rising 3.6 per cent to reach S$10.77 psf per month on the strength of new properties.

Occupancy rates for Grade A offices in the CBD area also slipped from 93.5 per cent in the second quarter of this year to 92.6 per cent in the third quarter — the lowest take-up rate in six quarters.

Mr Calvin Yeo, executive director of office services at Colliers International, said the drop in occupancy rate was led mainly by “a spike in the available stock of office space” in the Raffles Place/New Downtown micro-market due to the completion of Asia Square Tower 1 and secondary space from tenants who had relocated.

The occupancy rate of Grade A office space in the Raffles Place/New Downtown micro-market was 90.9 per cent as of the third quarter, a level not seen since the fourth quarter of 2005, the report said.

Prime retail rents have also been moderating.

A report by DTZ revealed that the average gross monthly fixed rent of prime first-storey space in the Orchard/Scotts Road area increased by 0.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter to S$40.20 psf in the third quarter. In other city areas, the monthly rate for prime first-storey space was unchanged at S$24.05 per sq ft, DTZ said.

On the overall retail rental outlook, Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of SEA Research, said: “As the economic outlook has deteriorated, some retailers have already become more cautious in taking up new space. Retail rents are expected to move along sideways, barring a drastic turn in the economic situation.

While facing headwinds from the oncoming potential supply, retail rents will be supported by demand from international retailers and asset enhancement initiatives of malls to increase their appeal to shoppers.”— The renewed global economic woes are impacting rents of both office and retail properties.

AVELYN NG

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pharoah88
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28-Sep-2011 15:29

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hIghest YIELD

	Name		EPS	Div	PE	Yield	Last	Chg	Vol	High	Low	Prev
	Cogent		0.014	0.0306	8.6	25.5	-	-	0	-	-	0.120
▼	Transpac		0.332	0.4100	4.9	25.2	1.63	-0.01	24	1.65	1.63	1.64
	Golden Ocean	US$	0.243	0.1750	2.9	24.9	0.885	-	2	0.885	0.885	0.885
	NatCool		0.047	0.0200	1.9	22.7	-	-	0	-	-	0.088
▼	FSL Trust	US$	-0.010	0.0435	24.6	19.2	0.285	-0.005	33	0.290	0.285	0.290
	HTL Int		0.062	0.0600	5.6	17.4	-	-	0	-	-	0.345
▼	Armstrong		0.050	0.0400	4.7	17.0	0.235	-0.010	172	0.245	0.235	0.245
	Hotung	NT	0.492	0.4700	6.2	15.4	0.129	-	80	0.129	0.129	0.129
	InnoTek		0.078	0.0500	4.4	14.7	-	-	0	-	-	0.340
▼	Willas-Arr	HK$	0.277	0.1035	2.7	13.9	0.120	-0.001	200	0.120	0.120	0.121
▲	Elec US$	US$	0.437	0.4000	6.7	13.7	2.93	+0.01	3	2.93	2.93	2.92
	Latitude		0.056	0.0320	4.2	13.6	-	-	0	-	-	0.235
▼	Ocean Sky	US$	0.020	0.0125	4.7	13.3	0.118	-0.002	20	0.118	0.118	0.120
▲	Novo Gp	US$	0.026	0.0238	6.9	13.3	0.225	+0.010	2	0.225	0.225	0.215
▼	UMS		0.084	0.0500	3.6	13.1	0.305	-0.010	145	0.315	0.305	0.315
▲	Qingmei	RMB	0.431	0.1292	2.3	12.9	0.198	+0.002	35	0.198	0.198	0.196
▼	TechOil& Gas		0.125	0.1050	6.7	12.6	0.835	-0.005	67	0.850	0.830	0.840
	SG MEDICAL		0.019	0.0164	6.8	12.6	-	-	0	-	-	0.130
	China Sun	RMB	0.334	0.0350	0.8	12.5	-	-	0	-	-	0.055
	NeraTel		0.030	0.0400	11.0	12.1	-	-	0	-	-	0.330
	AlliedTech		0.012	0.0050	3.5	11.9	-	-	0	-	-	0.042
▼	Adampak	US$	0.035	0.0232	5.7	11.7	0.250	-0.005	30	0.250	0.250	0.255
	Jadason		0.016	0.0070	3.8	11.7	-	-	0	-	-	0.060
▼	ChipEngS		0.166	0.0400	2.1	11.4	0.350	-0.005	273	0.355	0.350	0.355
▲	Best World		0.012	0.0220	12.5	11.3	0.150	+0.010	40	0.150	0.150	0.140
▼	BakerTech		0.039	0.0300	6.9	11.1	0.270	-0.005	1,171	0.280	0.265	0.275
	Valuetronics	HK$	0.341	0.1400	3.7	11.0	-	-	0	-	-	0.205
	GRP		0.029	0.0200	6.2	11.0	-	-	0	-	-	0.181
▼	Cambridge		0.081	0.0489	5.6	10.8	0.455	-0.010	1,697	0.465	0.455	0.465
	CitySpring		-0.024	0.0420	68.1	10.8	0.390	-	34	0.390	0.385	0.390

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pharoah88
Supreme

28-Sep-2011 15:16

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mOst wAtched

	Name	Rmk	Last	Chg	%	Vol	% Watch	Open	High	Low	Prev
▼	Genting SP		1.60	-0.03	-1.84	47,335	39.44%	1.63	1.64	1.60	1.63
▼	Capitaland		2.50	-0.05	-1.96	8,238	24.89%	2.55	2.55	2.46	2.55
▼	GoldenAgr		0.625	-0.025	-3.85	68,142	22.91%	0.645	0.645	0.625	0.650
▼	SingTel		3.12	-0.02	-0.64	24,961	21.82%	3.14	3.15	3.11	3.14
▼	OCBC Bk		8.24	-0.01	-0.12	4,744	20.29%	8.25	8.29	8.18	8.25
▼	DBS		12.08	-0.12	-0.98	4,815	20.16%	12.20	12.25	12.05	12.20
▼	CoscoCorp		0.955	-0.025	-2.55	5,080	19.40%	0.975	0.975	0.955	0.980
	SGX	CD	6.74	-	-	1,334	18.90%	6.75	6.77	6.72	6.74
▼	Noble Grp		1.42	-0.04	-2.41	24,693	18.58%	1.44	1.45	1.41	1.45
▼	Kep Corp		8.08	-0.23	-2.77	5,131	18.20%	8.30	8.30	8.03	8.31
▼	Yangzijiang		0.950	-0.025	-2.56	12,306	16.93%	0.975	0.980	0.940	0.975
▼	NOL		1.10	-0.03	-2.67	6,399	15.65%	1.12	1.13	1.09	1.13
▼	SembMar		3.42	-0.13	-3.66	4,227	15.18%	3.54	3.54	3.40	3.55
▼	SIA		11.37	-0.03	-0.26	1,529	14.79%	11.40	11.49	11.30	11.40
▼	SPH		3.75	-0.03	-0.79	3,359	14.52%	3.78	3.78	3.71	3.78
▼	UOB		17.07	-0.32	-1.84	1,879	14.31%	17.35	17.40	17.01	17.39
▼	Semb Corp		3.51	-0.07	-1.96	4,756	13.63%	3.58	3.58	3.48	3.58
▼	StarHub		2.87	-0.03	-1.03	716	13.48%	2.89	2.90	2.86	2.90
▲	Wilmar		5.25	+0.01	+0.19	4,072	13.44%	5.25	5.31	5.20	5.24
▼	KepLand		2.67	-0.02	-0.74	3,161	13.40%	2.69	2.71	2.65	2.69
▼	Olam	CD	2.38	-0.04	-1.65	5,616	13.20%	2.40	2.41	2.36	2.42
▼	SMRT		1.75	-0.01	-0.28	179	12.31%	1.77	1.77	1.75	1.76
▼	CapMallsAsia		1.20	-0.03	-2.44	4,140	9.93%	1.24	1.24	1.20	1.23
▼	Hyflux		1.50	-0.02	-0.99	1,077	9.74%	1.52	1.52	1.50	1.52
▼	Ezra		0.875	-0.025	-2.78	2,219	9.52%	0.900	0.900	0.875	0.900
▼	CapitaMall		1.84	-0.05	-2.65	4,198	9.36%	1.87	1.87	1.83	1.89
▼	MIDAS		0.390	-0.010	-2.50	5,519	8.98%	0.400	0.400	0.385	0.400
▼	GLP		1.64	-0.03	-1.51	3,423	8.91%	1.66	1.66	1.63	1.66
▼	IndoAgri		1.28	-0.03	-2.30	1,485	8.80%	1.31	1.31	1.27	1.31
▼	TigerAir		0.805	-0.020	-2.42	1,020	8.71%	0.830	0.830	0.800	0.825

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pharoah88
Supreme

28-Sep-2011 15:12

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▼

Amara

0.290

-0.010

-3.33

0.290

0.300

0.290

0.300

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pharoah88
Supreme

28-Sep-2011 15:11

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SembMar

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pharoah88
Supreme

28-Sep-2011 15:09

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KEPLAND

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pharoah88
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28-Sep-2011 15:07

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http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2011/09/27/blood-on-the-streets-a-review-of-my-bearish-trades/

Trend Spotting| 27 September 2011

Blood On The Streets – A Review Of My Bearish Trades

By Spencer Li

Given the bearish sentiments and fear in the market, I would be looking to short into rallies. Many people are caught with their long positions, and are not willing to cut their losses because they may still be struck by disbelief or are naively hoping for a magical rebound. That is wishful thinking. Since bears are looking to short and “bulls” are looking to unload, this means rallies may not last that long. I would take this chance to review some of the bearish trades I spotted on my charts. Note that these charts are really all quite self-explanatory and effective, with no need for indicators.

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pharoah88
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31-Aug-2011 14:52

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A Good Time To Be In Cash

Disclaimer: Past returns are no guarantee of future performance.

The way forward

By Colin Twiggs
August 30th, 2011 3:00 a.m. ET (5:00 p:m AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

There were plenty of central bankers and economists with glum faces at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week as speakers reviewed the challenges ahead. So far the global economy has not responded to various rescue plans, with GDP slowing and national debt rising across a whole slew of economies.

Before we look at the daunting challenges ahead,we should review what has already been achieved. We avoided a global banking collapse, an accompanying deflationary spiral and a depression similar to the 1930s. There have been a few side-effects, but do not underestimate the importance of avoiding a deflationary spiral.

Deflationary Spiral

In times of uncertainty, households and corporates save at higher than normal rates. Savings contribute to economic growth when channeled through the financial system into new investment, but in a financial crisis they are applied to pay down debt, causing a savings-investment mismatch. Any amount saved that is not re-invested in the economy, whether it used to pay down debt or buried in a tin at the bottom of the garden, causes a fall in national income.

If 2% of every trillion dollars earned, for example, is used to repay debt, then people who would have supplied 1 trillion dollars worth of goods and services will only receive $980 billion in income. That doesn't seem so bad, but if 2% of the reduced income is similarly applied to repay debt, then income available contracts to $960.4 billion. And keeps contracting each time income is recycled. In extreme cases the above scenario could be replayed many times over before the behavior ends, causing a sharp fall in national income. Repetition of the above cycle twenty times, for example, would reduce available income by a third. That is a deflationary spiral. Something to be avoided at all costs.

Side-effects

The proven antidote to deflation is to run a fiscal deficit: government expenditure in excess of revenue helps to offset the savings-investment shortfall. Stimulus programs, however, have been badly managed, with no thought as to how the burgeoning national debt would be repaid. Mountains of national debt were incurred to head off the deflationary spiral, but there is very little to show for it. Deficits spent on school halls, public fountains, checks in the mail and tax cuts offer no means of repayment. Investment in infrastructure projects that offer a market-related return on investment — that can be used to repay the debt over time — have so far been scarce.

The result of a weak fiscal balance sheet is instability. High unemployment, low consumer spending, restricted consumer credit, and a falling housing market are all consequences of increased uncertainty.

Also, private capital investment remains scarce despite super-low interest rates and cashed up corporate balance sheets. For the same reason that cashed up banks are not lending to small business: uncertainty. Both banks and business face an unpredictable environment, with the possibility of further falls in employment and consumer spending, restricted consumer credit, a falling housing market, unsustainably low interest rates, and the threat of increased taxes. Uncertainty equals risk, and any CEO worth his/her salt would scale back on expansion plans until they have a clearer picture of what the future holds.

Unemployment will remain high and GDP growth low until capital investment is restored. The problem is: how?

Possible solutions

The answer may sound simplistic, but we need to reduce uncertainty to provide business with a stable foundation on which to plan future investment. There are four possible solutions, but none of them are pretty.

The first is austerity: cutting government expenditure to match revenues. Austerity is important but on its own is likely to deliver even lower growth than at present — and risks a deflationary spiral. Cutting government expenditure while private savings are being used to pay down debt, without an equivalent cut in tax revenues, would court disaster.

Raising taxes is another popular option: getting everyone to pay their fair share. Though the notion of fair share varies widely depending on who the speaker is — and who pays their campaign contributions. Revising the tax code to achieve a more equitable distribution of the tax burden may contribute to long-term stability — a fair tax system is more likely to stand the test of time — but increasing tax revenues to repay national debt would also risk a deflationary spiral.

A third solution is massive public works programs similar to those undertaken by China during the GFC. Infrastructure projects directly stimulate local business and increase employment while also delivering savings in unemployment benefits. Government infrastructure investment, however, has a checkered history. Cost overruns and failure to meet revenue projections make private sector funding difficult to obtain. And government funding would further increase the national debt.

The fourth option, a soft default on existing debt, through inflation, is obviously tempting. Debasing the currency by selling Treasurys directly to the Fed, for example, would:

Reduce national debt in real terms
Create a surge in investment demand for real assets as a protection against inflation — lifting stock prices and the housing market
Bail out the banks, who are threatened by shrinking housing prices and
Give currency manipulators a sizable haircut on their existing Treasury investments and discourage further " pegging" against the dollar. China and Japan collectively hold more than $2 trillion in US Treasurys [Washington Post], accumulated to suppress appreciation of their currencies against the greenback and create a trade advantage.

An unwelcome result, however, would be a massive spike in inflation. At some point the Fed would have to raise interest rates sharply, effectively slamming the economy into reverse, in order to cure inflationary expectations. So we could defer the recession for now, in the hope that the economy is on a sounder footing when it re-visits us later.

The way forward

While each of the options has their downside, a combination of the first three seems to offer the best solution. Funding infrastructure investment through a combination of private sector funding, austerity cuts and increased taxes could avoid the risk of a deflationary spiral, with minimal increase in the national debt. It would also facilitate direct channeling of private savings into investment, reduce wasteful government expenditure (through an austerity drive) and could be used to justify a more equitable distribution of the tax burden (if we all benefit we should all expect to pay).

The fourth option, a soft default through inflation, should be seen as a last resort. And is probably why QE3 was not put forward at Jackson Hole last week. Once you awaken the (inflation) dragon, he can prove difficult to slay.

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Wisdom consists not so much in knowing what to do in the ultimate as knowing what to do next.

~ Herbert Hoover

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pharoah88
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31-Aug-2011 11:12

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