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YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
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cheongsl
Master |
18-Apr-2013 20:38
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So where is your support of saying? Till date only plain talk without support.
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dippyboy
Member |
18-Apr-2013 20:02
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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There is high risks in the credit and bond market in China on top of a property bubble. Something sets off the defaults it wil have a catastrophic impact on bond holders. The wheels of change is already set in motion.China is cracking down on interbank lending. this will have repercussions when bond holders who will suddenly found out massive fraudulent credit ratings on otherwise promised safe products sold by glip talking bankers salesman who are only looking at their own commisions.basically selling a one way ticket to the dustbin for investors who bought unreliable bonds with no means of getting paid back in the projects invested. Subprime bubble 2.0. 16b equity-11b htm writeoff=5b equityx80c/16b mv=25c nav bv. One have to buy way below 25c f/v to get the additional margin of safety if provisions is accounted for in the event of systemic bond and property crash in china.The market might be unfair during these times but if its cheap enough and coy doesnt go belly up then some of the provisions might be written back and you gain! If you look the other way round, there is potential 80% returns for shortist to be earn in such event. |
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cheongsl
Master |
18-Apr-2013 07:25
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I am quite puzzle in why you compare China with greece or cyprus. I saw the news on IMF report risk in China. The IMF report mention 27% debt vs GDP in 2010 and 47% of the debt is from local government. Most of loans will be reaching repayment in 2012~2014. Why is the report on 2010 GDP? Is it an old news? debt vs GDP in 2011 is 38.5%, after China government discover the risk they are slowing down the economy and reduce the development, thus GDP growth have slow down, and in 2012 the debt vs GDP is reduce to 22.16%. But now you are compare with Cyprus which debt vs GDP is 87.26% in 2012 and Greece the debt vs GDP is 170.73%. Even US process a higher risk of defaulting then China which have a debt vs GDP as 107.18%
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dippyboy
Member |
18-Apr-2013 04:36
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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China private sector auditor refuses to sign off bonds for offbalance sheet financing. Officials admit to using fake online data for GDP which doesnt add up to exports partners data. Tightening policies noose wrong around china property speculators. Multiple corrupt official exposed in owning ten and hundreds of undeclared property and un caught ones are secretly offloading them. Common phenomenon of empty buildings in ghost towns littered city fringe. Unprecedented first case of bond default in suntech. Bird flu causing massive losses for poultry and f& b business.This could be the trigger that breaks the camels back. Risk scenario: Possible china housing commonly used as collateral for off balancesheet financing is being liquidated on margins calls for shortterm off balance sheet bonds/wealth management products which default due to unsustainable longterm projects with no real returns.Defaults sets off a chain of systemic crisis in all 2800 counties which is reliant on such funding. liquidation of housing further prick the housing bubble which collapsed together with the credit market. The result systemic crash will exceed us subprime lending and cause widespread bankruptcy for bond holders and highly leveraged property speculators. This is healthy for the long term development of china industries by cleansing out excess and inefficient players kept afloat by debt. Rebalancing of the economy can thereby resume as money stuck on housing mortgage can be diverted to consumption facilitating the new economic models .In a recession , low costs and spare abundant resources enables entrepreuners to innovate and create new growth industries . Creative destruction is essential for capitalism to work well. Its obvious govt will step in to bail out state companies and employees which is running the ccp. However due to the massive liabilities which stretched 3t reserves to their limits their govt cannot bailout private bond holder which took risks for high returns,they will have to lose a big portion of wealth from the defaults.Needless to say those to lend money thru such spv off balancesheet vehicles is likely to be wiped out just like how greece bond writeoff wiped out cypruss savers .How iceland got bankrupted from speculating in subprime bonds.How lehman bros bonds got defaulted. This can happen in china too. As the old saying goes, : You can keep your faith but dont depend on it. |
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ynnek1267
Master |
17-Apr-2013 20:28
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Wahahaha | ||||
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Flyordie
Veteran |
17-Apr-2013 20:19
Yells: "Sifu, Online !!!! Sea Pek Urgent !!!!" |
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 Coming coming coming
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Blanchard
Senior |
16-Apr-2013 22:56
Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....." |
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Oops... I'm referring to Michael Jackson's You Are Not Alone youtube... |
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Blanchard
Senior |
16-Apr-2013 22:50
Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....." |
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Yeah... we are not alone... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage& v=9VlkWbOKuVs Enjoy...
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Flyordie
Veteran |
16-Apr-2013 22:27
Yells: "Sifu, Online !!!! Sea Pek Urgent !!!!" |
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U r not alone,bro~ | ||||
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warrenbegger
Elite |
16-Apr-2013 22:02
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Me too, if die then die together lor :)
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Flyordie
Veteran |
16-Apr-2013 17:40
Yells: "Sifu, Online !!!! Sea Pek Urgent !!!!" |
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Got some at 0.925. Still queuing at lower price if it hit.
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Blanchard
Senior |
15-Apr-2013 16:02
Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....." |
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New Yangzi to Pen 94K BulkersChina's Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding seems poised to win up to two post-panamax transloader newbuilding bulkers from Oldendorf Carriers. Sources said the German shipowner is under negotiation with New Yangzi for 1+1 94,000-dwt bulkers, due for delivery in early 2015. Meanwhile, industry sources said the deal is similar to an order previously contracted with JES International Holdings's subsidiary Jiangsu Eastern Heavy Industry in China, in September 2012, in terms of the vessel design and terms of the contract. Oldendorff awarded an order for one plus one 94,000-dwt hybrid bulkers, with delivery slated in mid-2014. Sources suggest that the shipowner could be replacing the order, since JES is currently facing financial difficulties and its subcontract yard workers went on strike over non-payment of wages. Meanwhile, Oldendorff is actively involved in newbuilding investment with low newbuilding prices. Earlier this month, the company awarded an order for firm four 207,000-dwt Newcastlemax bulkers with additional options for two, valued in the exceed of $50m apiece, at Hyundai Heavy Industries of Korea. ...9 working days to AGM...
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pseudo
Member |
15-Apr-2013 15:31
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In talks for another possible order
So far orders have 1+1 94000 bc http://en.eshiptrading.com/news/d/221/4738/ |
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Flyordie
Veteran |
15-Apr-2013 09:17
Yells: "Sifu, Online !!!! Sea Pek Urgent !!!!" |
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Me queuing too
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edwinjup
Master |
15-Apr-2013 08:45
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Agm next week | ||||
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warrenbegger
Elite |
14-Apr-2013 22:30
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Load some more at 935 :) |
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alooloo
Veteran |
12-Apr-2013 13:10
Yells: "I am not young enough to know everything. " |
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bought back a little@ 0.94
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cheongsl
Master |
12-Apr-2013 05:45
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Ship building industries recovery still within expectation. 上 个 月 全 球 造 船 业 界 的 新 造 订 单 量 为 249万 CGT， 相 比 上 月 的 193万 CGT增 加 接 近 30%， 也 多 于 1月 份 的 210万 CGT， 进 入 今 年 之 后 ， 按 月 度 计 算 ， 3月 份 的 订 单 量 最 多 。 根 据 Clarkson近 日 发 表 的 按 国 家 接 单 情 况 的 统 计 ， 3月 份 中 国 的 订 单 量 为 68万 CGT位 居 世 界 第 二 ； 韩 国 造 船 业 界 的 订 单 量 为 109万 CGT， 位 居 第 一 。 韩 国 的 新 造 市 场 的 订 单 占 有 率 情 况 为 44%， 远 高 于 中 国 的 27.4%。 此 外 ， 日 本 在 上 个 月 的 订 单 量 为 47万 CGT， 占 有 率 达 19.4%。 另 外 ， 2013年 第 一 季 度 ， 全 球 新 造 订 单 量 为 660万 CGT， 同 比 增 加 14%， 去 年 同 期 的 订 单 量 为 580万 CGT。 据 悉 ， 目 前 的 新 造 船 价 已 经 下 降 到 最 低 点 ， 可 能 即 将 开 始 上 升 ， 在 此 背 景 下 ， 船 东 为 了 底 价 订 购 亲 环 境 、 高 效 率 船 舶 ， 正 加 快 接 单 步 伐 。 |
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Flyordie
Veteran |
11-Apr-2013 07:18
Yells: "Sifu, Online !!!! Sea Pek Urgent !!!!" |
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Yeah.now left not much.
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warrenbegger
Elite |
11-Apr-2013 01:48
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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U got buy any? Good Luck to U too :)
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