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NOL
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davidscs
Member |
03-Dec-2012 14:14
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/01/us-usa-fiscal-obama-idUSBRE8AT0LH20121201 Little progress in U.S. " fiscal cliff" talks(Reuters) - With barely a month left before the " fiscal cliff," Republicans and Democrats remained far apart on Friday in talks to avoid the across-the-board tax hikes and spending cuts that threaten to throw the country back into recession. While President Barack Obama visited a Pennsylvania toy factory to muster public support for tax hikes on the rich, portraying Republicans as scrooges at Christmas time, his primary adversary in negotiations, Republican House Speaker John Boehner, continued to describe the situation as a stalemate. The argument will resume on Sunday when Boehner, along with Obama's Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, and others, take to weekly political talk shows and pick up further steam next week with a possible confrontation in the House of Representatives between Democrats and Republicans over the timing of a vote on tax hikes. |
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harley22ez
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03-Dec-2012 09:50
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03 Dec 2012 09:28 *DJ Neptune Orient Lines Upgraded To Buy From Reduce By Nomura (END) Dow Jones Newswires December 02, 2012 20:28 ET (01:28 GMT) *DJ Neptune Orient Lines Target Raised To S$1.50 From S$1.00 By Nomura
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sgng123
Veteran |
03-Dec-2012 09:29
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Friday short sellers covering early today. that big block of share sale still need verification who buyer + seller It very adnormal for 55mil share to be traded after bell close in 1 day. Might be bank selling shipping holding as cosco also got 47 mil block changed hand last fri. I was quietly hoping Buyer is Temasek it would bump up holding 67% to 69%, making chance of takeover very real It improve buy sentiment as it make short seller think twice about shorting as a sudden privatisation would wipe them out and leave them burnt. |
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harley22ez
Senior |
03-Dec-2012 08:24
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good article posted on straits times about NOL. quite a buig article, almost 1/3 of a page whihc should rekindle interest and sentiments of buyer. remember its all about sentiment nowadays especially when buyer of stocks mostly being Singaporeans are prone to buying based on sentiments, just like buying property. lest hope that this baby can climb again..huat argh!!!! |
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sgng123
Veteran |
02-Dec-2012 15:06
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Once US fiscal cliff is out of picture, just wait for BB to position then time to play trade on this counter. Would not make big profit trade, but getting that few hundred dollars for CNY is possible Market go through lot of extreme this year, Greek criss, Spain/Italy bond criss, Europe recession, US presidential stillmate. All can plunge the world into another GFC but we survive it all. Now left the final and biggest hurdle US fiscal cliff, once that is over we would see light at end of tunnel. |
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New123
Elite |
02-Dec-2012 14:21
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shipping will survive . Is the world major transportation . I think it may turn around in 1-2 yrs time . More ships just need to scrap off then supply will drop . Frt rate will then rise . If u hv holding power then long term should be Ok . | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
01-Dec-2012 21:04
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Asia to middle east rate had been jack up from 626 to 863. 37% boost. Liners put a GRI 250 on this lane to take effect dec1. Look like they got it through 100%. Good sign for dec 15 GRI. Freight rate would go up and down in this uncertainty period, don worry too much as long as bunker fuel remain stable and GRI able to implement. 2011 is bad year as all liners doing rate war and GRI cannot go through. Now it is the opposite, all gang up on exporters and jack up rate to rebuild balance sheet. US fiscal cliff last standing wall remaining before bulls come charging back too much liquidity and QE3 infinity is providing support for risk. lot of money need to be burned, hope they burn some on NOL lol. |
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richsoh
Member |
01-Dec-2012 20:26
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Pls ascertain how much cash available & how long can last to burn (bunker abt $630 per ton) and 1Q is always the low period no GRI Frt rate can only fall vbrgds
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ynnek1267
Master |
01-Dec-2012 17:19
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So long as supply can be easily grasped, the freight rate rally will not last long.
2012 march rally till dropping now show good example. Once freight rate is up, all will forget what has been agreed and pull idled ship into market. Unless market boom, no other solution at all. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
01-Dec-2012 16:52
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Hope it just the warrant issue not brokerage unloading. The muddy water incident kind of make investors all jittery about unexpected jump in share volumee after bell close. Big GRI coming on dec, 600 on europe 400 on us. 1500 on US reefer rate(aircon container) on jan mostly for US export. GRI is getting more and more crazy, tug of war between liners and exporter and the biggest loser would be consumers. IT going to be a supply lead recovering, taking out lot of ships deployed to push up rate. guess we start to see lot of containers parking in the sea off east coast.... lol |
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ynnek1267
Master |
01-Dec-2012 15:08
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So, my conclusion of both sell down in last 5 minutes for cosco and NOL are warrants expiry in next week.
Some buyers of warrants may push hard recently to bring NOL above 1.1 exercise price and cosco above 0.90 exercise price. But all efforts are killed on Friday. Banker who issue the warrants are the final winner. Shipping industry is shit now freight rate dropping down to lose making level. Recent rally may just pushed up by some warrants player. 2013 is super peak vessel capacity supply period. Take care. |
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ynnek1267
Master |
01-Dec-2012 14:58
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http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/company_disclosure/all_in_one/warrants/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gjR0cTDwNnA0sDC3cLA0_XsDBfFzcPQwszI6B8JJK8hZG7uYGnoVmgs2GIs7GzoQFJuv1DDYG6Q50CTZzCQg29HU0I6PbSj0rPyU8CutLPIz83Vb8gNzSi0lFREQCTPLhV/dl3/d3/L0lDU0lKSkpDZ3BSQ1NBISEvb0VvZ0FFSVFoakZFSUFBak9NNFJrb0lBSVFBIS80QzFiOVdfTnIwUkprQWxJSWlSLS83XzJBQTRIMEMwOTA4MjcwSVVSU1M1SUYzR1UxL2libS5pbnYvMjE1NjIxNzc1NzUw/?CompanyCombons_7_2AA4H0C0908270IURSS5IF3GU1_=COSBC12&CO_ALLONE_SELECTED_INDEX=25&CO_AllONE_CHART_RET_CODE=COSBC12&CO_AllONE_STOCK_NAME=COSCO+CORP+BP+ECW121204&CO_AllONE_IBM_CODE=9AG4&CO_AllONE_HP_CODE=O5YW&CO_AllONE_MASTER_CODE=64980&CO_AllONE_ISSUER_NAME=BNP+Paribas+Arbitrage+Issuance+B.V.
Cosco warrant expired on 041212 at 90cents.
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tiancai007
Master |
01-Dec-2012 14:13
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Ok. That may explain for NOL. What abt Cosco? Isn't it fishy that both shipping firm got sell down at the closing?
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ynnek1267
Master |
01-Dec-2012 13:11
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As I said, one batch of warrants was expired on 1 Dec at 1.1. So, it is just a normal share return to market from warrant and no news will be announced.
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ruanlai
Master |
01-Dec-2012 11:21
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COSCO n NOL seems like technical glitch | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
01-Dec-2012 10:53
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Still no news on that 55 mil share block changing hand. guess had to wait till monday when the parties involved make a listing to SGX. Short sellers on friday must be eager to cover their pos on monday, can make like 0.03-0.04 if they fast enough on short covering. nol share price is steady at 1.14 with strong support like 1.7mil bid 2 hour before closing, then it started to give up gain steady, the volume changed during last hour was crazy, it went from 18000 to 31000. share price is unchanged at 1.12 when trading close. That 55mil block is done after close where there is like 5 mins for closing outstanding pos. Some traders might know 1~2 hours in advance of the 55 mil trade as always..... In conclusion, do not go into market yet till US fiscal cliff resolve and wait for BB move. Temasek had to do their window dressing to make 2012 portfolio look good else cannot answer to PAP lol. |
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bishan22
Elite |
01-Dec-2012 10:52
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Going back to submarine mode. 
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ynnek1267
Master |
01-Dec-2012 06:52
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The warrants at 1.1 was expired. Believe a lot of involvement in this warrants in last 4 minutes trading Since NOL drop below 1.1. The banker who issue the warrants earn a lot.
The freight rate is below breakeven level. Last week bounce up may be supported by warrants buyer. But at the end, it go down. |
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stevenheng1
Member |
30-Nov-2012 22:58
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86000 is indeed abnormal..and off loading 5 mins before closing bell or rather changing hands | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
30-Nov-2012 20:21
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good news is freight rate had stabilise, SCI in up 0.8%. Bunker fuel hovered around US$630, might go lower due to no demand from ships. Still no news who sold that big block of shares after bell close. Checking 2011 top 20 shareholders, high chance it might be either citibank / DBS since both securities hold like 50-60mil each. If temasek is the buyer lol , this bring their holding from 67% to 69%. Very close to privatisation level of 70%. In 2006, they tried once to take over nol by offering $2.80 but end up with 67% cos remaining 33% hold out. |
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