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US down to AA+....What would happen on monday.....
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teeth53
Supreme |
10-Aug-2011 00:22
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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U.S. stocks rallied the most in almost a year, rebounding from yesterday’s rout that erased $1 trillion from the nation’s market value, on speculation the Federal Reserve will act to restore confidence in the markets.
Can't agree more..ya...angmo gui is even more scary, in term of lossing a trillon $ in one day.
" Angmo Hell really very scary liao ..... going to level 2 .......all the small ghosts ( Xiao Gui ) at play and making all kind of noise."
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teeth53
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 22:59
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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STI not trading today (46th NDP) is save by Ah Ben....for today all regional bourses ended bloody red, so expecting STI will not cheongg tomorro (Wed) would be punters selling into strength to recover margin lost, end of the day not expecting to go up by 3% to 5%. Just offering my alternative view, many goes profit taking. |
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rotijai
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 22:59
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suddenly everyone forgot tat yesterday dropped 600 pts.. lol yea those who bought at yesterday's low made good profits :)
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iPunter
Supreme |
09-Aug-2011 22:57
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Many who buy will be " jia buay liao " ... (make good profits)... |
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andreytan
Veteran |
09-Aug-2011 22:48
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Luckily, last min change of mind and buy some. come tomolo Asia Pacific will soar 3 to 5%, and shortist covering will make it reach there faster. wish all luck, and hope this a mere correction of the rally to yr end before hell come .
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hpong5
Master |
07-Aug-2011 19:47
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http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/07/oh-no-they-didnt-econ-bloggers-react-to-the-sp-downgrade/ | ||||
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hpong5
Master |
07-Aug-2011 19:38
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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/07/s-p-debt-rating-downgrade-hypocrisy.html | ||||
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MasterNg9999
Senior |
07-Aug-2011 18:42
Yells: "Isnt Human center of the universe???" |
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Angmo Hell really very scary liao ..... going to level 2 ....... all the small ghosts ( Xiao Gui ) at play and making all kind of noise.. but then i am a very happy man ......... Treasury Disputes S& P Math, Saying Downgrade Doesn’t Add UpAug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury Department said there is “no justifiable rationale” for Standard & Poor’s move to downgrade the nation’s credit rating as global finance ministry officials prepared responses to the historic announcement. Standard & Poor’s officials stood by their decision announced Aug. 5 and laid blame on a political system that failed to adequately address deficit reduction in the compromise law that President Barack Obama signed Aug. 2 to avert a U.S. default on its debt. The Treasury Department issued a statement saying
S& P had acknowledged an “error” in its calculations and that the
rating company made a $2 trillion mistake. |
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hpong5
Master |
07-Aug-2011 17:40
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Buy on weakness, position yourselves for wednesday opening. No risk no gain. At most eat A&W. | ||||
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pharoah88
Supreme |
07-Aug-2011 17:27
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THE ENERGY STOCKS I BOUGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY - AND WHY So what do we retail investors do now? Gut wrenching volatility in the markets due to gut-less politicians has left investors dazed – do we still buy the dips or this 2008 all over again? I was a buyer on Thursday and Friday of my favourite oil producers and energy services companies. I see this steep market downturn as a crescendo of fear that had been building up in the markets over politics mostly – NOT as any kind of actual drastic economic downturn. Now, I didn't waste all my bullets as I may be able to buy them lower in the next month, i.e. there could be a reset of valuations (Lord, please let there be a reset so we can get on with making money again!) but the many investors with lots of cash around would welcome that. And the reality is that in my specialized sector, junior oil and gas valuations were already hit so hard in June that many of the stocks that I follow barely moved, telling me the reset in this sector is almost complete. I'll tell you more about these purchases in a minute. But first, I see that the economic numbers – especially when you look globally – are not that bad. Credit Suisse reports that global emerging markets now account for 49% of global GDP – and with estimated trend growth of 9%, 7.5% and 4% in China, India and Brazil, those three economies alone would add 1.8 percentage points to global GDP if they grow at trend. You don't read stuff like that in our financial pages. Our financial media is very biased towards shrill negative US and European bad news. (And most news reporters have never spent any time in business, doing real business – never forget that as you read the media. They are unionized staff who have not been trained to think like entrepreneurs so they don't see solutions, only problems. My degree is journalism -).) US GDP is still positive, and most forecasters are now just calling for reduced growth, not recession. Of course, there could be another recession in the US, though I think investors will do better than workers as this will guarantee North American interest rates stay at zero for another 18 months. The market loves cheap money as much or more than a strong economy, and this will fuel stock market participation. I think it will also help fuel corporate growth, and here's why – now corporate debt is more attractive than sovereign debt. So cheap corporate debt – already very cheap with 10 year + notes going out at 3% - will continue to allow whatever low cost growth consumer spending will support. This mini-crash was mostly due to investors' uncertainty that political leadership and un-elected autocrats could contain the European debt problem. (Being a politician isn't easy as you are elected on your integrity (or your party leader's integrity) but your job is to be a professional compromiser. Whether it's getting a business deal done or passing laws, you have to compromise with the other side to get a win-win. But the people who elected you don't see you that way. When was the last time you saw an election sign saying " I'll compromise for you!" ). I find it funny that the common man has reduced his credit and increased his savings over the last three years (especially in the US), but big banks have continued to lend weak states like Greece et al hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. They remain vulnerable to collapse and as a result will likely have to reduce lending to their customers even more. A perfect example of this is The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), whose collapse in 2008 sent junior market darling but heavily indebted Oilexco (a $20 stock at the time) into bankruptcy. Greece owes RBS just under US$1 billion. This reduced bank lending in the coming year will reduce consumer spending, but it won't kill it. I believe a good chunk of that is now priced into the market (worst case we're at 9x PE for the S& P 500, now is 11.7x). To me, worst case is that austerity measures in the western world remain a drag on overall equities for several years - but emerging markets continue to be strong, which will keep the oil price at a level that will reward growth in both producers energy services companies. The market just wants clarity. Short term, it doesn't even care if it's the perfect solution. It knows everybody has to take a haircut on this debt, so just tell us the number for each party and let's get back to business. The global economic backdrop is strong enough that I believe these political crises that spill into the stock market are buying opportunities - though I confess I'm a lot more selective than I was six months ago. I see two possibilities out of this week's drama, and both are positive for investors who bought stock the last two days. One is that the European debt problem here is so big and so immediate and so PUBLIC that some kind of concrete, credible action will be taken to resolve the issue. That would create a positive shift in market sentiment, even if it meant significant short term economic pain. But some kind of action must be taken now, and even if it's NOT completely credible, I see that action (Italian PM Berlusconi's promise of a balanced budget and tackling welfare and labour reform would count as this) being rewarded by the market. This would mean the index charts will look like a bouncing ball from these levels, and you use these instances to buy stock in your favourite companies. So let's talk about my favourite companies – what did I buy this week? I bought two types of stocks. One was energy services – these are the companies that do the drilling, the fracking, supply most of the hardware that producers need. The global shift to shale oil and gas production and horizontal drilling is still in its infancy. In North America it's really only become mainstream in the last 5-7 years. And the energy services sector is still catching up to producers' demand for their products and services. Calfrac (CFW-TSX) is one of Canada's largest fracking companies, (but was NOT a company I bought or own), and they announced their Q2 numbers this week and they beat The Street's consensus cash flow by 74%! Canadian brokerage firm Raymond James says Calfrac is growing its capacity 48% this year – the demand is so strong for fracking by the energy producers. Their main growth was in the US, in the face of a very weak US economy. That's very bullish for the sector. Service companies also have pricing power – sometimes by as much as 5% per quarter Raymond James said in a report earlier this year. The technology innovation that is coming out of the energy services sector -- steadily -- is astounding. There are companies that have technologies or tools that can get more oil and gas out of the ground or reduce time and costs, which increase profits and stock prices for producers. These companies have huge sales backlogs now, and strong pricing power. Even if oil goes to $50/barrel (which it's not, it's going higher folks), the demand for these innovative services would not decrease. The second type of stock I bought has yield. Both producers and service companies pay dividends, and with all this negative economic chatter, I believe interest rates will stay near zero for another two years, insulating yield stocks. Many dividend stocks dropped 10%-20% in intraday swings, and I was able to scoop up a juicy 10% yield! I missed another because I couldn't end my phone call at the time! Even big companies like Pembina Pipelines (PPL-TSX) had a 20% swing Friday. The market may not have bottomed yet. Interbank lending rates are spiking (the TED spread) and PE levels for the S& P 500 are still, at 11.7x, above what they are at market bottoms (8-9x). Political indecision in Europe and the US could endure. But this is not 2008. And there are great companies growing quickly with HIGH profit margins that went on sale this week which I believe I will profit from handsomely in the coming quarters. P.S. In my newest video, I explain why the Global Shale Revolution has the new energy services sector booming… and why energy services stocks aren't actually dependent on the price of oil or gas to deliver huge profits for investors (unlike most oil & gas stocks). Click here to watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDXhGV3g2kE -Keith |
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hpong5
Master |
07-Aug-2011 16:20
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Haha.. PARIS, Aug 7 (Reuters) - France's AAA rating is stable, ratings agency Standard and Poor's chief European economist Jean-Michel Six told France Inter radio on Sunday. "The French rating is stable," Six said. Six said that political leadership and good governance are a major factor in ratings agencies' deliberations about rating reviews. French bond holders fear that following the downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ on Friday, the spotlight could turn on France, which would push up French interest rates. France has the weakest economic fundamentals among the six AAA rated countries in the euro zone and French President Nicolas Sarkozy has made the defence of the country's AAA rating a top government priority. The three major ratings agencies have all reaffirmed France's AAA ratings over the past eight months. (Reporting by Geert De Clercq Editing by Alistair Lyon) | ||||
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hpong5
Master |
07-Aug-2011 16:02
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The damage have been done. Lets have Beers tonight to celebrate their achievement. | ||||
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susan66
Master |
07-Aug-2011 15:52
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AAA to AA+: Here come the battery jokes! | ||||
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hpong5
Master |
07-Aug-2011 12:03
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‘Flawed Judgment’ After the Treasury pointed out the “error -- a basic math error of significant consequence -- S&P still chose to proceed with their flawed judgment by simply changing their principal rationale for their credit-rating decision from an economic one to a political one,” Bellows wrote. “Independent of this error, there is no justifiable rationale for downgrading the debt of the United States,” he said. “There are millions of investors around the globe that trade Treasury securities. They assess our creditworthiness every minute of every day, and their collective judgment is that the U.S. has the means and political will to make good on its obligations.” The S&P decision went further than Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, which affirmed their AAA credit ratings for the U.S. on Aug. 2, the day President Barack Obama signed a bill that ended the debt-ceiling impasse that pushed the country to the edge of default. Moody’s and Fitch both said that downgrades were possible if lawmakers fail to enact debt reduction measures and the economy weakens. | ||||
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Joe2020
Veteran |
07-Aug-2011 12:01
Yells: "I am the Oracle sent forth unto you that ye shall be warned" |
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S& P Erred in Cutting U.S. Rating: Buffett
By
Betty Liu and Andrew Frye
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Aug 7, 2011 7:56 AM GMT+0800
Chairman And Chief Executive Officer Of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Warren Buffett. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg Billionaire Warren Buffett said Standard & Poor’s erred when it lowered the U.S. credit rating and reiterated his view that the economy will avoid its second recession in three years. The U.S., which was cut Aug. 5 to AA+ from AAA at S& P, merits a “quadruple A” rating, Buffett, 80, said yesterday in an interview with Betty Liu at Bloomberg Television. The downgrade followed the biggest weekly selloff in U.S. stocks in 32 months, with the S& P 500 slumping 7.2 percent to its lowest level since November. “Financial markets create their own dynamics, but I don’t think we’re facing a double dip recession,” said Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) “Clearly what stock markets do have is an effect on confidence, and this selloff can create a lack of confidence.” Stocks plunged last week amid signs the U.S. economy is slowing and speculation that Europe will fail to contain its sovereign-debt crisis. Reports on manufacturing and consumer spending trailed economists’ forecasts. Euro-region central bank governors are planning emergency talks aimed at limiting the market fallout from the first U.S. rating downgrade in history. The U.S. cut, announced after the close of trading in New York, was prompted by rising public debt and “greater policymaking uncertainty,” S& P said in a statement. The U.S. has the top credit rating at both Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Buffett said he doesn’t rely on the views of ratings firms when buying and selling securities. Berkshire is the biggest shareholder of Moody’s Corp. Rising EarningsBerkshire posted a $3.42 billion second-quarter profit, up 74 percent from a year earlier, the company said Aug. 5. Returns from derivatives improved, and Buffett’s 2008 investment in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. led to an after-tax gain of about $806 million. Buffett is seeking investments and acquisitions as Berkshire’s cash climbed to $47.9 billion at the end of June. The S& P downgrade won’t have an impact on investment decisions in money funds and bond funds at Western Asset Management, said Pasadena, California-based Chief Investment Officer Stephen Walsh. Western Asset, the bond unit of Legg Mason Inc., manages about $365 billion in assets and has an “underweight” position in U.S. Treasuries. “Our money funds are required to invest in securities with the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, but it doesn’t speak to a rating,” Walsh said. “Our conversations with central banks and foreign investors show that they won’t view Treasuries differently.” Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said that the downgrade will spur uncertainty in the market. “It will fuel uncertainties about the functioning over time of the world economy as there are no other pure AAA’s able and willing to materially complement or replace the role of the U.S. at the core of the global financial system,” El-Erian wrote in an e-mailed response to questions. To contact the reporters on this story: Betty Liu in New York at bliu17@bloomberg.net Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net |
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Citigold
Senior |
07-Aug-2011 11:24
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U.S july non farm payroll will cushion off some impact from S& P downgrade.I think the down grade will not be taken too seriously by investors even though it will have some small repercussion.At least we know that US economy is gradually recovering as jobs have been created and unemployment had gone down by 0.1% .I believe this recovery processes will be slow but wi During the sub prime crisis, S& P rated lot of assets backed securities as triple A which indirectly contributed to the crisis.The creditability and integrity of S& P rating should have long been questioned since then. As for Euro debt crisis ,i believe the political leaders of are determined to resolve it and we can see from the recuse package they gave it to Greece and Japan's and China's had pledged to support the Euro zone. Overall, i am optimistic that this crisis will be over soon .
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iPunter
Supreme |
07-Aug-2011 09:58
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The world is not getting mad... It is getting bad...  |
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MasterNg9999
Senior |
07-Aug-2011 09:55
Yells: "Isnt Human center of the universe???" |
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huhu~~ ..... Incoming Sht Bomb........ Expectation Violated , Ego Squashed , Analyst Play the " i told you so " Game while gearing to offload their exposure... The world is mad and getting madder by the day ..... From PIMCO There will be endless debate on whether S& P, the rating agency, was justified in stripping America of its AAA rating and — adding insult to injury — even attaching a negative outlook to the new AA+ rating. But this historic action has now taken place, and the global system must adjust. There are consequences, uncertainties, and a silver lining. Not so long ago, it was deemed unthinkable that America could lose its AAA. Indeed, “risk free” and “US Treasuries” were interchangeable terms — so much so that the global financial system was constructed, and has operated on the assumption that America’s AAA was a constant at the core, and not a variable. Global financial markets will reopen on Monday to a changed reality. There are immediate operational consequences, from re-coding risk and trading systems to evaluating collateral and liquidity management. Key market segments will be closely watched, including the money market complex and the reaction of America’s largest foreign creditors. Meanwhile, for the real economy, credit costs for virtually all American borrowers will be higher over time than they would have been otherwise. Animal spirits, already hobbled by the debt ceiling debacle, will again be dampened, constituting yet another headwind to the generation of investment and employment. It is hard to imagine that, having downgraded the US, S& P will not follow suit on at least one of the other members of the dwindling club of sovereign AAAs. If this were to materialise and involve a country like France, for example, it could complicate the already fragile efforts by Europe to rescue countries in its periphery. The future role of rating agencies will also now come under close scrutiny, bringing to the fore the question of who rates the rating agencies? S& P’s action will likely unite governments in America and Europe in an effort to erode their monopoly power and operational influence. This will also force all investors to do something that they should have been doing for years: conduct their own ratings due diligence, rather than rely on outsiders. More worryingly, there will now be genuine uncertainties as to wider systemic impact of this change. With America occupying the core of the world’s financial system, Friday’s downgrade will erode over time the standing of the global public goods it supplies - from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency to its financial markets as the best place for other countries to outsource their hard-earned savings. This will weaken the effectiveness of the US as the global anchor, accelerating the unsteady migration to a multi polar system while increasing the risk of economic fragmentation. These factors will play out over time, and will possibly do so in a non-linear fashion. Some of the immediate impact will be forestalled by the fact that no other country is able and willing to replace the US at the core of the global system. Other than a general increase in risk premia and volatility, it is therefore hard to predict with a high degree of conviction how the global system will react. Specifically, will it simply come to a new normality, with an AA+ at its core, or are further structural changes now inevitable? All of that said, there a sliver of a silver lining — and an important one. America’s downgrade may serve as a wakeup call for its policymakers. It is an unambiguous and loud signal of the country’s eroding economic strength and global standing. It renders urgent the need to regain the initiative through better economic policymaking and more coherent governance. There is a risk, of course, that different political factions will use S& P’s action as a vindication of their prior beliefs. Democrats would argue that it is recent Republican political sabotage that pushed S& P over the edge while Republicans would argue that we are here due to irresponsible government spending by the Democrats. For the sake of their country and the wider global economy, both parties should resist the urge to begin bickering. Instead they should seize this potential “Sputnik Moment” — a visible shock to the national psyche that can unify Americans around a common vision and a renewed sense of purpose — that of halting gradual secular decline by putting the country back on the path of high growth, job creation and financial soundness. Angmo Hell Level 2 going to be very fun ....... Cheer |
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warrenbegger
Elite |
07-Aug-2011 02:39
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Bull is more cute than bear. I like bull too :) But depend what market wants liao. Market always up and down, so when market down too much, a rebound is what we wish most. (after the shakeout bottom) Wish We all still can see the bull and profit together. Dont let me see ghost la :( Wish china can use their money and power to short those F**King agency till become rubbish junk :) Cheers!
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JUNWEI9756
Supreme |
07-Aug-2011 02:37
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Andreytan i agree with you ! Monday is a good time to buy. Or either that wednesday 9 - 10 am. After that it will rebound strongly. No guarantee though. Enter at own risk. STI index at 2900 with low volume trading will be a confirmation i think. | ||||
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