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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Hulumas
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 17:56
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Yes, you can!
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erictkw
Veteran |
06-Oct-2009 17:33
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Something from CIMB's economic update today. Manufacturing PMI Dip in September, but no threat to 3Q09 GDP • Manufacturing recovery intact, despite pullback in September PMI. After an unexpectedly strong rise in August’s PMI (by 2.9% pts to 54.4, the strongest in almost three years), the market was expecting another rise in September’s PMI, to 55.0. However, due to a first-time contraction in new export orders and slower growth in new orders and production, September’s PMI dipped 3.8% pts to 50.6, the lowest in five months. A reading above 50 indicates expansion while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The tech PMI declined 2.8% pts to 52.4 after hitting a 33-month high in August (55.2). The dip in September was caused by lower new orders (-4.4 pts), new export orders (-4.6 pts) and production (-7.9 pts). But despite the big dip in orders and production, the employment index rose, albeit only by 0.1 pt to 51.3, the third consecutive month of a reading above 50. Perhaps tech manufacturers were taking a breather in September after a busy August. It might also have something to do with China, which shuts down for a longer period this year in early October for its National Day holiday as well as the Mid-Autumn festival. Instead of the usual 1-week break, the Chinese will be enjoying nine days off. Businesses and manufacturers in Singapore might have booked lower orders and shipments as a result. If so, we should see a rebound in October, on a resumption of orders and production. • 3Q09 still the best quarter in two years. Despite the pullback in September, the average PMI reading of 52.2 was the strongest in two years. Last week, data showed August’s manufacturing output (MPI) expanding 12.3% yoy to bring growth in Jul/Aug 09 to 14.7% yoy, the strongest 2-month expansion in 18 months. Although the bulk of the MPI growth in 3Q09 was again due to pharmaceuticals, excluding biomedical, August MPI declined 6.1% yoy, the second consecutive month of single-digit decline in nine months. There was a continued drag from the other key clusters, although the rates of contraction eased. • Better-than-expected 3Q09 GDP expected next Monday. The latest manufacturing data augurs well for 3Q09 GDP. We had expected a decline of about 0.5% yoy (-3.5% in 2Q09). But July/August's MPI growth, if sustained into September, could lift 3Q09 GDP growth to about 1.5% yoy or 15% qoq SAAR. Even allowing for a pullback in drug output in September (because of a high base last year), advance 3Q09 GDP data (to be released Monday, 12 Oct) may show manufacturing expanding by 10-12% yoy vs. 2Q09’s -2.3%. If so, this would be the first time Singapore’s manufacturing grew yoy, after five quarters of decline. Excluding biomedical, advance 3Q09 manufacturing may decline 8-10% yoy, the smallest in a year. Singapore’s manufacturing (25% of GDP) is doing better now, even though this is still very much due to drugs. Thanks to drugs, 3Q09 GDP may expand 0.5% yoy, the first positive yoy reading in a year, allowing the government to perhaps upgrade its 2009 GDP growth estimate again (currently -6% to -4%). • No change in monetary policy next week? The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will also release its monetary policy statement next Monday. Although the economic recovery has exceeded expectations, the MAS is not expected to announce change to its exchange rate policy. CPI inflation may come in at the higher end of its projection of -0.5% to +0.5% this year, but that will still be more due to cost-push factors (higher car prices, energy costs) than broad-based demand-pulled inflation. Although economic growth in 2H09 is likely to exceed earlier estimates, there are still uncertainties over the sustainability of this recovery. Therefore, the MAS can afford to wait and see. Should the local (and global) economic growth momentum gather pace and inflation pick up speed at the start of the new year, next year’s monetary policy meeting in April might see the MAS tilt towards tightening. This would be in line with what most central banks around the world are likely to do. |
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Prophet
Member |
06-Oct-2009 17:17
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Tonight US should be continuing the gain , With alcoa leading on anticipation that the quarterly result for tmr will be good . Alcoa with TP 14.5-15 . Asia should be able to continue the gain follow by that :) Good Try | ||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 16:55
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That's quite expected... since there's money to be made in AD... 
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bennykusman
Veteran |
06-Oct-2009 16:54
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WHY ?
but after the announcment, AUD dollar rise up
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iPunter
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 16:48
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A rate increase in a weak and newly battered economy is bad news...
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wangweii1122
Member |
06-Oct-2009 16:45
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can i say the correction is over? | ||||
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Prophet
Member |
06-Oct-2009 15:51
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Have patience , a winner dont give up the winning ticket so easily . If listen on my advise n bought yesterday . you are having a comfort ride . HOLD . there may be some downside but the u r on the driving seat . RELAX N CHILL .
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des_khor
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 15:32
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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WOW... what happen... after finish my toilet break see my HSI call WT shoot up high high man.. | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 15:04
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sell into strength la..sti tyre puncture.. |
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des_khor
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 14:36
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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WoW ! It's has been long time didn't see blue chips appear on top 20... time to recovery to greater height... ikan bilis will only move again when Blue Chip finish perform. | ||||
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Hulumas
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 12:48
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Thank you.
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cheongwee
Elite |
06-Oct-2009 12:43
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the selling started ard 25th sept..if i am not wrong...and again we can never know...just follow strictly to rule will be alright..
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cheongwee
Elite |
06-Oct-2009 12:40
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Australia have increase their rate by 0.25%..very confident recession is over..the first in G20 to do so.. | ||||
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victorf
Master |
06-Oct-2009 12:28
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it is very clear to see that for the last two days, it is the start of the first round of broad selling....for the experienced investors, it is quite clear that there will be another two rounds of selling (the depth i am not sure) before the market reach stability (in which you can consider to pick up some beaten counters)...good luck | ||||
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des_khor
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 12:21
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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But very hard le... we will never buy low and sell high... maybe in the middle..
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iPunter
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 12:20
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The best strategy now is to "sell high" (which is low) ... hehehe...
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des_khor
Supreme |
06-Oct-2009 12:15
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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What strategy is this?
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Livermore
Master |
06-Oct-2009 12:13
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Just lucky to have sold off last Wednesday. Now using "surround strategy" to surround the enemy. | ||||
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maxcty
Master |
06-Oct-2009 12:12
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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CW, you got a feel that SAR will jump again? tot u concentrate on maid only. |
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