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Have the rally ended?
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pilotfish
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01-May-2009 21:50
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Lets see DOW can clear the golden barrier. I doubt it can. Its coming down now. Still long way to go.
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wongmx6
Veteran |
01-May-2009 05:25
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Now the Economy is still declining however if the drop is not as steep as the previous month, The Index will inch higher. When there have clear sight of recovery, The STI index won't not be at 1900. it will be at 2500. Once again, we only can make our own prediction. May is the month of issuing Dividend. Generally Share price make a correction. |
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pilotfish
Senior |
01-May-2009 02:49
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Sorry please do your own analysis. Don't listen to people and cheong blindly.
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pilotfish
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01-May-2009 02:33
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Thanks. Noted that too.
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pilotfish
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01-May-2009 02:28
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Strait Time 30 Apr: MAS see slow recovery. Expect false starts. --> Was the rally we see a bear market rally (a mad cow running about)? I don't know as I haven't examined STI chart. If it just a mad cow running about then expect STI may acheive a new low. Not long ago analysis had say STI may hit a new low. So the current index at 1900, is it low? The choice is yours. For me I stay clear. (Cash is power, the market is always there)
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cheongwee
Elite |
01-May-2009 02:08
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from what i have, i believe oil will be 65 to 70 come ard june...so it is best to buy some counter relate to oil... EZRA, Sembmarine, SPC, kepcorp...pls DYODD. anyway if stockmarket cheong...oil will cheong, so all oil relate stock to benefit.. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
01-May-2009 02:05
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i dont have, if i have, last yr i would not have lost $$$..,but i have already recover my losses with profit fr this bear rally... just be careful, there are no fine and sure thing,,,even TA and FA are meant as a guide, there are not 100%...but elliot wave and fibonacci, i do look to them.. but i think with coy reporting going to be over and with less bad news, i cannot see why the dow will not rally... i stick to my gun, dow 10000...hope so.
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pilotfish
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01-May-2009 01:49
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Finally the golden ratio. This is what I want. Any strategy about fine tunning for entry and exit and shorting, mind to share.
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cheongwee
Elite |
01-May-2009 01:46
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Our title is borrowed from a caption of the Chicago economist and monetary scientist Melchior Palyi (1892-1970) writing on the fiscal and monetary legerdemain of the U.S. government in his Bulletin #401, dated February 27, 1960, as follows. Faking balance sheets legalized A corporation publishing faked balance sheets would be barred from every stock exchange. It may even face criminal prosecution. The objective is to protect the public against fraud. But exactly the same fraudulent practice has been legalized in so far as commercial and savings banks, and life insurance companies are concerned. They can carry government bonds on their books at par value. A $1,000 bond may be quoted in the market at $800 or less; the balance sheet of your bank will still show it at $1,000. The purpose of this regulation, adopted by all federal and state supervisory agencies and by the Securities Exchange Commission as well, is to give those bonds a sacrosanct status and guarantee against paper losses. Thereby they are promoted to an absolutely safe and “liquid” status. The bank examiners count the bonds of the federal government, whatever their maturity and actual market price may be, as prime liquid assets, just like cash. The more bonds in the portfolio, the more liquid is the bank by the examiners’ standards, — never mind the paper losses. It is small wonder that the banks purchase long term federal obligations, thereby creating a market for them. The result is that with rising interest rates and declining values of medium- and long-term securities, the modest capital and undivided surplus of the banks – reserves against losses – are impaired. In the case of quite a few banks the entire capital and all reserves have been lost. In some cases, even a part of the deposits has been wiped out. Silence of the Sea But the public knows nothing about this sad situation. No newspaper dares to discuss it, or the preposterous practices of the govern-ment at the root of it. The “Silence of the Sea” covers them up. Those on the inside (and insight) hope and pray that a recession will reduce the pressures on the capital market, lower interest rates, raise bond prices, and wipe out the losses. Very likely it will; but what about the next cycle? And, above all, for how long, or how many times, will the depositors and savers permit themselves to be fooled and victimized? Sooner or later every legerdemain, however clever or subtle, is exposed – and backfires. A further consequence is that the bond portfolio of the banks “freezes up”. By selling bonds the bank would convert paper losses into real losses, which would skyrocket if major amounts were liquidated. While the boom and high interest rates obtain, the “prime liquidity” turns out to be the very opposite, unless the bonds are monetized at, and the losses shifted onto, the Federal Reserve. But the central bank can be relied upon to resist the “temptation” to absorb either or both. The above was written in 1960. In 2009 we are wondering what has hit our banks. No mystery there. It was not subprime mortgages nor other loose lending practices. The banking crisis is entirely self-inflicted or, more precisely, government-inflicted the origins of which go back almost ninety years: faking balance sheets. That practice cannot go on forever. The day of reckoning comes when capital is called upon to do what it is supposed to do: to tie over the bank during a temporary setback. The kitty is opened, and found empty. Bank capital is gone, due to earlier legerdemain in trying to paper over paper losses. (No pun intended.) The situation is actually worse, as far as the condition of our banks is concerned. So far deposits have not been affected during this crisis. Depositors feel secure in the belief that they are protected by the government and its deposit insurance scheme. Here is Palyi, writing in the same article on this subject: Dumping ground for the federal debt Government agencies that have no other choice in investing their funds, though they are not organs of the Treasury, are an obvious dumping ground for the debt of the federal government. A most interesting case in point is the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). It sinks the ”insurance” premiums paid by the banks into long-term government bonds, as a guaranty fund re-presenting less than 2 percent of “insured” deposits. The FDIC itself has brought out in its Report for 1957 that, in effect, deposit insurance is relevant only in the case of a banking crisis – in which case it would not be helpful at all. All its funds would be exhausted at once if a single one among the eight or ten biggest banks would get into trouble, to say nothing of a wide-spread bank-run. The public’s impression is that the government guarantees deposits which it does not. Worse still, in order to make good on the “insurance” of even a small fraction of ”insured” deposits, the FDIC would have to liquidate its own holdings that would break the bond market. Not only is this a phony arrangement which serves only to mislead the public, but it also induces the banks to neglect building up their capital accounts properly for the protection of the deposits. Rather, they rely on the “insurance” – and on their own holdings of government securities.
The hare-brained Geithner-plan Now, 50 years later, we have a fully-fledged banking crisis on hand, and the FDIC will soon face its first real test since its establishment in the 1930’s. Is deposit “insurance” a myth as suggested by Palyi, designed to mislead the public? There is plenty of evidence that it is. Why did the big Wall Street banks not sell government bonds from portfolio before begging Congress for bailout money? On the face of it this would have been a good time to sell, as the bonds are quoted above par value by the market, thanks to a super-low interest-rate structure. Could it be that the bond market is rigged? Could it be that high bond values are artificially maintained, e.g., by tempting bond speculators to the long side of the market with risk-free profits, and threatening those on the short side with sudden death — the essence of open market operations as I have long suggested? This time we shall find out. If you examine the latest measures initiated by the Geithner Treasury, there is indeed reason for alarm. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner openly invites private investors to speculate, risk free, in buying the toxic assets of the banking system. The risks, should they materialize, are covered by pledging, most improperly, the assets of the FDIC. If the gamble succeeds, private investors may keep the assets they have bought on the cheap. Otherwise the FDIC will pick up the tab and will reimburse investors for their losses. Let me ask the only relevant question. Why would private investors, in their right mind, speculate in toxic assets which have no market, given the fact they can already speculate, directly and risk-free, in the “ultimate” asset that is held in the guaranty fund for those toxic assets, that do have a market in which the troubled banks compete with overseas central banks for the bonds of the U.S. government? The Geithner-plan is a hare-brained plan, and is bound to fail. Portfolio frozen as the Antarctic When it does, there will be a run on the banks. It will be ugly and unstoppable. Only about ten percent of the money supply is in the form of Federal Reserve (FR) notes, and people will be scrambling for them. The printing presses will be run 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they will still not be able to meet the demand. Apparently, foreigners are already scrambling for FR notes. They could of course have FR deposits in the form on electronic money, but they wouldn’t touch them with a ten-foot pole. They want dollars they can fold. Make no mistake about it, behind this unprecedented world panic and bank run is the book-keeping legerdemain that the U.S. government and its bank examiners have adopted after the 1921 panic in the bond market. Thereby the commercial and savings banks, as well as insurance companies in the U.S. were authorized to carry government bonds at par value in the balance sheet, as if they were a cash item, in complete disregard for what they would fetch in the open market. Moreover, banks and insurance companies could also use them as gambling chips, buying and selling them to pocket risk-free profits. They just have to second-guess the Federal Reserve (Fed). Whenever the Fed has nature’s urge to go to the open market to relieve itself (read: to buy more bonds for the purposes of collateral in order to be able to increase the money supply), they could pre-empt it in buying the bonds first. In this way they bid up the price of bonds and then dump them in the lap of the Fed for a quick profit. Now the whole shady scheme of misleading the public through balance-sheet hocus-pocus is coming unstuck. Make-believe bond values have backfired badly. As it turns out, the banks’ portfolio of government bonds is as frozen as the Antarctic − just as Palyi predicted fifty years ago that it would be. Grand Canyon-size holes in the balance sheets The banks cannot liquidate it without revealing Grand Canyon-size holes in their balance sheet, several times larger than bank capital. They desperately need to retain their portfolio of government bonds for “window-dressing” purposes, that is, to show at least the remnants of what had been bank capital in happier times. They desperately try to hide the fact that even the ruins of their capital are gone. The much advertised “stress-test”, no doubt, is using the same metric that has steered the banking system to the ground during the past four-and-a-half score of years: the metric assuming that government bonds can never lose value, and bank balance sheets are there to falsify based on that false metric. Such an assumption is especially dangerous when the interest-rate structure is at the low-end of the spectrum, and the country is suffering from a chronic balance of payments deficit. It is difficult to see how one can treat the stress-test and its results with respect. We shall see how adroitly Ben Bernanke will handle the printing press which he is in the habit of boasting that the U.S. government has given him to use in a situation like this. He will not be able physically to print FR notes so fast as to replace electronic money that has been lost, or will be lost through rejection by the public. Electronic money had been created in the belief that nothing more was needed to pacify the markets. But it is one thing to create electronic money with a click of the mouse; it is quite another thing to print FR notes on real paper with real ink. This is the secret of deflation, and the answer to the much-debated question whether you can have hyperinflation and deflation all at the same time. The answer is that you can, because hyperinflation refers to electronic money that people reject, and deflation refers to FR notes that people hoard. The moment of truth has arrived. You cannot fool all the people all of the time. The Emperor is naked: the tailors who created his garments are impostors. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
01-May-2009 01:40
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Is the bank really profitable???wondering how they can make it, when all around are reporting losses or poor profit. Are Banks Going Bankrupt?04/29/2009By Olivier Garret, CEO, Casey Research On April 21, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the “vast majority” of U.S. banks have more capital than needed. “Currently, the vast majority of banks have more capital than they need to be considered well capitalized by their regulators,” Geithner said in testimony to a congressional oversight panel on the government’s financial rescue program. Geithner’s remarks come on the heels of a surge in reported quarterly profits by the big banks. One of these banks, Bank of America (BAC), the world’s second largest in terms of market capitalization, booked a first-quarter net income of $4.247 billion – 6% more than it made in all of 2008. So is this the turnaround Geithner et al. have been willing to beggar our nation’s future for? Before calling your broker and placing a big order for bank stocks based on all this “good” news, it might be prudent to answer a couple questions first. For starters, just where did all this income come from? And has credit quality really improved? The answers to both can be found buried in a company press release bearing the encouraging title “Bank of America Earns $4.2 Billion in First Quarter.” I’d like to draw your attention to the four most telling excerpts from this release. 1. “Equity investment income includes a $1.9 billion pretax gain on the sale of China Construction Bank (CCB) shares.”
2. “Noninterest income included $2.2 billion in gains related to mark-to-market adjustments on certain Merrill Lynch structured notes as a result of credit spreads widening.” 3. “Credit quality deteriorated further across all lines of business as housing prices continued to fall and the economic environment weakened.” 4. Nonperforming assets were $25.7 billion compared with $18.2 billion at December 31, 2008 and $7.8 billion at March 31, 2008, reflecting the continued deterioration in portfolios tied to housing.” Now we see that out of its $4.2 billion in profits, a total of $4.1 billion came from a one-time sale of CCB stock and marking up Merrill’s book of mortgages. If you subtract these one-time gains from net income and include preferred dividends, Bank of America actually lost $1.286 billion. Importantly, Bank of America is not the only big bank engaged in accounting sleight of hand. As The New York Times article “Bank Profits Appear Out of Thin Air” by Andrew Ross Sorkin points out: With Goldman Sachs, the disappearing month of December didn’t quite disappear (it changed its reporting calendar, effectively erasing the impact of a $1.5 billion loss that month); JP Morgan Chase reported a dazzling profit partly because the price of its bonds dropped (theoretically, they could retire them and buy them back at a cheaper price; that’s sort of like saying you’re richer because the value of your home has dropped); Citigroup pulled the same trick. So what’s the takeaway?When the Treasury secretary tells you banks are well capitalized and you read in the press that financial institutions have turned a corner, don’t buy it. And don’t buy the stocks of these companies either. These days, smart investors are well advised to carefully watch the investment as well as the political landscape... because Washington’s movers and shakers’ influence on the markets has never been greater. The Casey Report investigates and analyzes those influences and trends to find the best investing opportunities. Our crisis-proofing advice: keep 1/3 of your portfolio in physical gold, 1/3 in cash, and 1/3 in hand-selected investments with good return potential. Try The Casey Report now completely risk-free – check out our 3-month trial with 100% money-back guarantee. Click here to learn more. Related ArticlesThe Daily Resource 4/30/09: Daily Pfennig 4/30/09: A Shrinking U.S. Economy Puts Pressure on the US$... Pearls Before Swine – Perils of Free Money The Daily Resource 4/29/09: Daily Pfennig 4/29/09: Dollar Falls As U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases...  View all articles
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cheongwee
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01-May-2009 01:06
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from what i know , a bear rally will not exceed 25%, the most 29%...so dow fr 6457 low..increase of 29% give a dow of 8329... well, we see, but if 8329 cross easily, and with positive news and sentiment, well we will see 10000.. if hit 8329..then stalk and srart to retreat...than a 61.8% retractment...give a dow of 5147... ...there are no sure thing..just be alert, that is the best we can do... |
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lookcc
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30-Apr-2009 22:22
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sekali bearish messages appear will rally come 2 a halt??? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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winsontkl
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30-Apr-2009 22:16
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Suddenly now many become super positive....what do you think??? Will rally come to a halt??? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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wongmx6
Veteran |
30-Apr-2009 21:26
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When the STI index at 3800, People said that it going to achieve 4500. Presently Index at only 1900, it's still cheap. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
30-Apr-2009 19:27
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And nobody even take notice of Europe...they are in deeper shit than US...just a matter of time this one explode and give us no chance to run for cover....Eastern Europe are bankrupt...read. More Pain Ahead, Especially for Europe
The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it’s projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That’s four times the amount projected in last year’s report. Meanwhile, the only indicator improving across the globe seems to be tied to confidence. Stock values have climbed, and with it, so has confidence. But the hard data, the real underpinnings of global economies, are going the opposite direction. And the IMF agrees:
Major Structural Problems Still Exist …
Consumer, investor and business confidence certainly have a powerful role in an economic recovery. But confidence alone can’t overpower the major structural problems still overhanging the global economy. The longer the structural problems exist, the faster confidence retreats. And the sharper the unsubstantiated rally in investor confidence, the sharper the next leg down in global asset values will be. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) latest report on world leading economic indicators shows that the growth cycle experienced another consecutive downtick. That’s the twenty-first consecutive month that leading economic indicators for world economies have declined since peaking in November of 2007. And the OECD’s indicators continue to see world economies in a strong downtrend as shown in the chart below. Both the IMF and the OECD expect economic growth for 2009 to be deeply negative, and the 2010 forecast is for roughly flat growth. That might be the least rosy projection for 2010. But based on the expert community’s track record during this crisis, I’d prefer to be on the other side of the bet that 2010 will bring recovery.
Then there was more bad news out of Europe this week: Deflation. And it’s widespread …  Spain, the fifth largest economy in the European Union, reported a fall in consumer prices for the first time in 50 years.
The UK reported the first annual fall in retail prices since 1960.
Ireland experienced its first drop in consumer prices since joining the euro in 1999.
Germany’s wholesale prices dropped the most in 22 years.
And Switzerland is so concerned about deflation that its central bank has intervened in the currency markets to weaken its own currency and has begun buying up its own debt to increase the supply of Swiss francs.
But deflation is not a problem confined to Europe. Deflation is a global problem … Broad commodity prices are down 54 percent since July of last year. U.S. consumer prices declined year over year for the first time since 1955. The Baltic Dry Index (the cost of shipping raw materials around the world) has lost a colossal 84 percent of its value in less than a year. And producer prices, wholesale prices … all have trended lower and have now hit sub-zero levels in most major countries. Fortunately for the U.S … Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is well studied on historical episodes of deflation and has taken out the entire toolbox to fight off a destructive downward spiral in prices. In fact, he wrote a speech on it. And it was before he ever walked the halls as the Fed Chairman.
In 2002, then Fed Governor Bernanke addressed the National Economists Club with his speech, Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here. And his 2002 speech reads like the Fed’s playbook for the current recession. Back then, Bernanke pointed to the dangers of deflation taking a foothold on an economy. He spoke about the destructive effects deflation has on outstanding debt. We can see this by looking at the Great Depression when the United States experienced three consecutive years of falling prices to the tune of roughly 10 percent a year. Consider what that means for someone who borrows money at 5 percent interest. It’s like they actually took out a loan at 15 percent interest! This ever-increasing real value of debt makes debt prohibitively unaffordable and puts the brakes on any new demand for debt. This creates a vicious cycle that further weakens consumption and feeds into a spiral of more deflation and more contraction in the economy. But not to worry, Bernanke has his playbook. And in the playbook you’ll find what play to run when the Fed has already cut short term rates down to zero — the traditional policy action to fight deflation. In contrast to the times of the Great Depression, the dollar is no longer on the gold standard. So today, the dollar is just a piece of paper. And that means the government can print more and more and more money until the value of goods and services begins to climb against the value of a dollar. A key point in Bernanke’s paper: “Under a paper money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.” And this is where Europe, and in particular members of the single currency (the euro), face a challenge … The European Central Bank has been slow and hesitant to keep moving interest rates toward the zero line. And, there is great disagreement about whether or not — if and when — to turn on the ‘printing press.’ What Are the Competitors Doing? The U.S., the UK, Japan, and Switzerland have all opened up the arsenal on both declining GDP and deflation. Yet ECB officials are still mulling it over. And they, in fact, have the most difficult challenge with the lack of economic continuity within the union. The ECB seems to be making a bet with no middle ground. If their policy choices prove wrong, the result could be the complete dismantling of the EU and the common currency. If they prove to be right, then we will have plenty of currencies to buy euros against. Regards, Bryan |
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cheongwee
Elite |
30-Apr-2009 19:21
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with thing getting worse, and market rally, we got to take extra care, otherwise regret... certainly, thing are still no ok..that is for sure..be careful. From:
"Weiss Advice" <email@weissinvest.com>
To view this email as a web page, click here.
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Livermore
Master |
30-Apr-2009 16:07
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Look at Keppeland. When it was $1.20, one analyst say sell, one say neutral and later one say buy. Don't bother what they say. Later in a confirmed bull market (not there yet) all analysts will say buy and their price targets will be fulfilled as all go up
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Livermore
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30-Apr-2009 15:56
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Don't look at recommendations. Determine trend
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niuyear
Supreme |
30-Apr-2009 15:48
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The best is intra-day target daily or hourly kind of chart. If anyone has that chart, can send email to me? can share some profit with you leh. |
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niuyear
Supreme |
30-Apr-2009 15:44
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Target price 6 mths ahead? More realistic report wld be 3 days to 1 week. All report expires very fast, from sell, then change to hold, then buy or whatever. LOL
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This bear market has introduced investors to a new indicator to tuck away in their market analysis toolbox — the so-called “second derivative” (see also “green shoots”).
So far, the banking sector has ONLY written down about $1 trillion in losses ... so there’s still a long, tough road ahead ... regardless of the positive “spin” you may hear from the upcoming bank stress-test results.