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Gold is overbought now!!
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Feb-2009 12:35
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Talking abt CBs dumping gold in the market is a myth...why? if they does gold would have bite the dust long ago...i dont think they are selling...some may but not much.. The gold market is very small some 500 b...the world derivative market is 49t...so just 1 % crossover from stock into gold will sent the px double overnite..and in time of panic..i think even more will rush into gold..how much more???..this will definitely sent the px to the moon..so the talk of $5000 to $6000 gold is a possibility. This rush will happen ..just a matter of time.. Have read that if one have 10% of investment in gold in 1970..even if 90% of stock evaporate go to zero...he still end up 4 time richer in 1980..you can find it out if interested. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Feb-2009 12:26
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Have ever read abt Singapore having 200 tons gold only...not very sure.. actually, the govt need not manipulate the px like gold bug was telling other. they are the law of the land, they can simply illegalise gold trade that is all..just Dr Mahatir illegalise the OTC market...do u still remember..me and alot got burn.. But in recent year some CB have been buying gold..and most are still keeping it..why??keeping gold incur cost...it does not pay interest... they should have convert it to cash long ago...maybe they still see it as "real" money..in the future. or for some reason best known to themselves... |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
27-Feb-2009 11:37
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Thats good cautious reminder. Congrate for those who acc when it was below 85 last yr. I presume most of them had done d profit taking liao. Not sure if d big countries dump their gold reseve to get extra $ to rescue their respective nation deepen financial crisis? US has the world biggest gold reserve of 8133.5 tons. IMF 3217.3. Top 10 are most fr EU, Japan n China top 7 of 765.2 whereas China is at 9 with only 600 tons. Ha ha how much Spore hv ah? Any MAS rept here? |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Feb-2009 11:19
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Here is another gold bear... http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/255339/the_golden_age_of_recession $400 gold in the passage possible??..why not??/...that is after the bubble burst... But as of current...what i know is to get 1 oz of gold out of ground cost $400 over,,,forget exactly how much..but that of no concern...long before this is reach i will be out for sure.. So if $400 at currrent i think not possible..anything below that all mines will be knock out...maybe in the future ..maybe..when the bubble burst...but i think we still have another 2 to 3 years left for gold.. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
27-Feb-2009 02:37
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Thank richtan for the interesting article, but $700 is a possibility...and long before it reach this px i would have unload all to the market...my ave px up to today is $420 for my physical.. and remember for every one Lou Baseness...there are one famous gold bug out there...Richard Ruseell...Davide Nicholas..so so so on. One thing for sure,,,they are not going to pay for your losses..you have to do your DYODD we must ask ourselves.."What if they are wrong???not right but wrong???...what protection do i have to save my ass???" To this i think cost ave work well for me...in and out is far more risk then benefit as i think the gold bull is still on....good luck. |
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richtan
Supreme |
27-Feb-2009 00:45
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Eight More Signs Gold is Overdue for a Correction Dear Investment U Reader, Two weeks ago I told you to short gold. And the recommendation, as I expected, ignited a brew-ha-ha on our Investment U message board. That's because there's not much middle ground. Most investors are either fanatical or supremely skeptical. If you have any doubt, check out the comments - and all the wonderful names I got called - on our website. But since I'm a glutton for punishment, and since gold moved in exactly the opposite direction I predicted, it's time for an update and a little clarification. The Long and Short of It Let me start off with a morsel of clarification. I don't hate gold. I own it, or more accurately, an interest in gold via gold mining shares. And I believe a small allocation (5% to 7%) has a useful place in a well-diversified portfolio. Over the long haul, studies confirm it helps increase returns while minimizing risk. A benefit we can all agree is desirable. But over the short-to-intermediate term - the next six to nine months - I think gold is a terrible investment. After breaching the $1,000 per ounce mark again, as I suggested would happen to my subscribers on February 2, it is overdue for a retracement back to roughly $700 per ounce. Those of you who expected it to drop the day after I suggested shorting gold need to understand that "short term" doesn't mean "this week." Just because it moved higher doesn't negate the point of the recommendation. Long story short, I view shorting gold as a way for me to hedge my long-term holdings. For traders, it's a profit opportunity to consider. And whether we see eye to on this is irrelevant. Ultimately, the market will be the great arbiter of our differences. For kicks though, let's address a few of those minor points of disagreement... Shorting Gold is Not Really Contrarian A small army of you suggested I was being an "arbitrary" contrarian. That no evidence, just a warm and fuzzy feeling, existed to back up my call. Are you kidding? Sure your "Cousin Vinnie" as chronic poster Todd opined, the trash collector or the newspaper boy might not be investing in gold. But the rest of the lemmings certainly are...
If the above isn't sufficient evidence to be a contrarian, I don't know what qualifies then. Why should I listen to you, Lou? Others of you simply wanted to know, why you should listen to me - a Wall Street flunky, "idiot" or a "young analyst who thinks he's got the magic touch and will never be wrong." Forget that the last reader - and yes it's the chronic poster and my new "buddy" Todd - is completely clueless and didn't catch my transparent about-face on the dollar here. Or my confession that I flubbed the rebound in financials. I'm human. I will be wrong. I'm man enough to admit it. But I don't think shorting gold will be one of those times. And if I don't have enough credentials to make such a claim, in your opinion, fine by me. Listen to someone more "qualified." Plenty of them exist that are also starting to question the merits of investing in gold, or at least acknowledge the mania... ...Newsletter god, Dennis Gartman says, "It's a little worrisome that so many people are piling in [to gold]." He expects a pullback, too. Just not as far as me. ...Peter Munk, founder of Barrick Gold, says he's never seen such strong interest in physical gold ownership. ..."This will all end badly, just like all other bubbles," predicts Leonard Kaplan, President of Prospector Asset Management, a commodities futures brokerage in Evanston, Ill. ..."Historically, when stocks begin to underperform gold, that's a sign that gold is running out of steam," according to Ray Hanson, a technical analyst at RBC. My Biggest Concern What really scares me is that some people take gold investing to an extreme. They actually believe in a government-orchestrated conspiracy to suppress prices, as some of you revealed in your comments. It's pointless to engage in lengthy debates with conspiracy theorists. Logic means little. But let's suspend disbelief for a millisecond and say you're right, that the price of gold is being fixed. Why in the world would you throw hard-earned money after the slim prospects of actually exposing and overturning the fix? Talk about a low probability of success. But I digress. What's most troubling is many investors, including some in my industry, say gold is a forever position and they are committed to "a lifetime pattern of purchasing" and will never sell. Some of you even revealed 50% of your portfolio is invested in gold. Here's the thing. I know that Christopher Columbus says, "Whoever possesses it [gold] is lord of all he wants. By means of gold one can even get souls into Paradise." But if financial Armageddon unfolds, which many gold bulls predict and in some sickly way wish for, gold will be priceless and worthless at the same time. How so? If world governments collapse, social order goes to heck, McDonald's won't magically be set-up to "make change" for your gold bars. ATMs won't spit out Krugerrands. What's more, even if the price of gold tops, say $5,000 per ounce under such circumstances, what can you do about it? Cashing in on the gains means accepting the thing gold bugs completely despise, paper currency, in return. So indeed, it will be priceless, useless and worthless all at the same time. Bottom line, the world isn't set up to handle gold as a currency. Not now. Not ever. It's merely an asset. And like all other assets, it's susceptible to bubbles. If you're in the speculative mood, I recommend shorting it in the coming months. Especially since, as the saying goes, "gold goes up on an escalator and comes down in an elevator." At the very least, examine your reasons for owning gold. If you believe the end of capitalism is nigh and financial ruin is imminent, just remember you need gold to be liquid, acceptable and portable for your investment to be really worth anything. All three are big question marks, convincing me John Maynard Keynes was more right than most want to admit. Outside of a small allocation for diversification purposes, gold is indeed a barbarous relic. I'm off to the message board to prepare for the onslaught of "fan mail"... Good investing, Lou Basenese |
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richtan
Supreme |
21-Feb-2009 11:30
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Warning! Precious Metals and Corresponding Stocks may Fall in a Few Days! |
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richtan
Supreme |
21-Feb-2009 11:16
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Gold overbought, fyi: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s155604539]&disp=P http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s155599672]&disp=P http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s155724490]&disp=P |
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richtan
Supreme |
18-Feb-2009 14:42
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Gold correction due soon, fyi: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/GoldBullMarketCorrectionFeb17.php Dyodd |
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Feb-2009 10:06
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Read this article, gold may correction to around US$850: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/feb132009.html As usual, duodd |
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richtan
Supreme |
16-Feb-2009 09:28
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You are most welcome but still remember I'm just sharing & I may b right or wrong, so dyodd.
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ozone2002
Supreme |
16-Feb-2009 09:11
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can short ETF? | ||||
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equator2010
Senior |
16-Feb-2009 03:21
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Thank you richtan for sharing this info with us. You have helped me become more aware of the risks involved in GLD ETF. God bless.
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oinkoink1999
Senior |
15-Feb-2009 23:38
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hi cheongwee, which bank offers purely SLV and SLW products or do they bundle with other metals like gold etc? Cheers, oinkoink
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cheongwee
Elite |
15-Feb-2009 23:29
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Buy more SLV and SLW..on dip...silver is running faster than gold now!!! | ||||
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terencefok
Master |
15-Feb-2009 17:40
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Yea, its overbought now... | ||||
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richtan
Supreme |
14-Feb-2009 22:57
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Looking at the gold daily chart, it is now overbought & imo, to buy now is not worth the risk/reward ratio as u will sooner or later be caught by profit-taking and/or shortselling. I would rather wait for it to correct to oversold region b4 buying (gold savings, no need to pay brokerage fees except yearly admin feess, much cheaper, easier to buy & sell). I dun believe in chasing after the price nor trade in gold ETF as I'm more cautious (better to be safe than sorry) after reading this article: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/turk/2007/0305.html. As usual, DYOD. |
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