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Fear Factor vs Opportunity - Market Minder
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7habits
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09-Feb-2008 21:58
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Also inclusive of Singapore's companies. One good counter recommended by Victorf, Informatics may be one such counter... Agreed with them, time will tell. Construction/property counter(s) also has potential with overseas strategies (already executed - those with first mover approach). My personal preference is China market with 1.3B potential consumers, and the right consumer market (appealing to the mass, middle income, etc., ---> what you eat, what you wear, what you discard yearly, what you need to present as gift for beloved ones during festive or special ocassion, etc.) is ever growing year by year... |
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7habits
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09-Feb-2008 21:48
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A very good article and GOOD DISCIPLINES from the link below. Warren Buffett also adopted this approach... Look at China stocks listed in Singapore, any potential company or companies similar to the 15 disciplines? http://www.nextinsight.com.sg/content/view/227/60/ |
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Alligator
Veteran |
30-Jan-2008 08:30
Yells: "learning from past " |
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tanglinboy, hard to translate lah, but i think the article in wall street journel is in this link below. http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2008/1/28/Wesbury_WSJ:_The_Economy_Is_Fine_Really |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
30-Jan-2008 08:20
Yells: "hello!" |
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Can you translate? I can't read Chinese very well.... haha... pai seh... got a C6 for Air-Levels. | ||
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7habits
Member |
29-Jan-2008 22:34
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Recession
美国经济安然无恙？回
顾历史，美国经济如今的局面真可谓前所未有。在众人皆感到大难临头的同时，却又找不到多少证据来证明问题的严重性。
在截至2007年11月的一年中，美国个人收入增长了6.1%。而在信贷危机处于愈演愈烈之际的10月和11月份，小企业收入却在加速增长。实际上，在截至2007年9月份的一年当中，除去所得税、租金、按揭、汽车租赁费和贷款、信用卡透支服务和物业税之后的收入增速要比通货膨胀率高出3.9%。商业票据的发行量目前正在回升，抵押贷款的申请情况也是如此。诚然，美国去年12月的零售额下滑了0.4%，第四季度的实际国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率仅增长1.5%。过去6个月来制造业产值确实一直持平，耐用品新订单增幅折合成年率下降到了0.8%，失业率也升至5%。虽然这些数据的确令人沮丧，但并不意味着世界末日到来了。 而在我看来，最近美国经济数据表现软弱不过是对此前强劲表现的?回调?。要知道，第三季度实际GDP增幅折合成年率高达4.9%，而11月份的零售额增长了1.1%。单月零售额出现下滑并非不同寻常之事。过去5年来，月度零售数据每年都至少出现3次负增长。这些数据的下滑可以说是经济数据的正常波动，其原因包括油价波动、季节性调整或是天气影响等。对此作出过激反应是错误的。 一年前的经济数据大多看起来比今天的要糟糕得多。工业产值在截至2007年2月的6个月中下滑了1.1%，而在截至2006年11月的6个月里，耐用品新订单增幅折合成年率下跌了3.9%。去年第一季度的实际GDP增幅只有0.6%，而零售额则先后在1月份和4月份两次下跌。但经济还是在年中的时候回暖了，从4月份至9月份，折合成年率的实际GDP增幅高达4.4%。 考虑到住宅市场是如此低迷，近期的工业产值和耐用品订单数据偏软是可以理解的。住宅市场目前在美国GDP中只占很小比重（4.5%），而且这块市场已经下滑得如此严重，若尽凭它就让美国经济陷入衰退的可能性着实微乎其微。相比之下，在美国经济中比重达到12%的出口却在以13.6%的速度增长。出口增长正在抵消掉住宅市场低迷而造成的损失。 虽然有一些与金融和住宅行业无关的上市公司报告业绩下滑，但市场对此类个别现象的从χち伊钊司取＠缬⑻囟?Intel Corp.)公布的业绩令人失望，进而引发对科技股的恐慌。但此事背后的事实却是，现已公布业绩的24家标普500指数科技成份股中有20家的业绩好于华尔街的预期。 根据最近的货币和税收政策建立的经济模型显示，2008年美国实际GDP增长率介于3%至3.5%之间，而经济出现衰退的可能性则为10%。在美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)大幅降息和政府出台刺激方案之前，这项预测或许能够站得住脚。但在Fed降息175基点之后，美国经济在2008年晚些时候强劲反弹的可能性已经增加。经济面临的最大威胁依然是通货膨胀，而不是衰退。 然而许多人却相信经济衰退已经发生，理由便是信贷市场的运转已经失灵。根据这种悲观的论调，次级债风波酿成的损失还只是冰山一角。经济的减速，再加上疲弱的金融市场，将在规模达数万亿美元的衍生品市场引发一场?完美风暴?。 这些人所担心的是，各种关于内部关联的违约风险、掉期交易和过度信贷等问题层出不穷，将导致美国金融系统这栋脆弱的纸房子彻底倒塌。即使没有如此严重，他们也担心起码将出现信贷紧缩，进而导致严重的经济滑坡。 对于许多人，这幅灾难性的景象让人不禁回想起?大萧条?。当时银行破产引发连锁效应，资金稀缺进而导致求贷无门，各种经济问题如燎原之火般愈演愈烈。 此番景象是令人困惑的也是令人不安的。之所以说困惑，是因为很难想像星星之火如何能够燎原。即使按照Fed主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)最近估计的1,000亿美元次级贷款损失，也不过是100万亿美元的全美住宅房产、非农和非金融企业资产的0.1%。即使损失扩大到3,000亿美元，占全美资产的比重也不及0.3%。 每一项违约风险，每一笔掉期、衍生或杠杆贷款，都是建立在实实在在的经济资产之上。只有在经济完全崩溃的情况下，信用危机才会蔓延到整个经济系统。而这又只能在国家政策严重出轨的情况下才会发生。 以大萧条为例，当时Fed允许将货币供应量削减25%，进而导致严重的通缩。反过来，通缩又导致大规模的银行欠款。1930年制定的《斯穆特-霍利法案》、1932年胡佛总统(Herbert Hoover)批准的加税案，以及后来富兰克林?罗斯福总统(Franklin Delano Roosevelt)当政期间建立的诸多机构，以及监管规定和反资本主义的政府活动等都给银行业带来了致命打击。当时有上千家银行倒闭、失业率激增至20%也就不足为奇了。 但在今天的美国，Fed的政策是非常宽松的。不仅仅是因为联邦基金利率要比名义GDP的增长趋势线低得多，还因为实际利率在已经处于低位的情况下还在继续下滑。此外，黄金价格在过去6年当中上涨了近3倍，而去年消费者价格指数的升幅超过了4%。 这样的货币环境并不足以引发信贷市场和金融机构的崩溃。如果说有金融机构出现此类问题，那毛病正是出在该机构自己身上，而不是由于货币政策过紧所引起。贸易保护主义也尚未成为真正的问题，虽然国会有人提议加税，但还没有任何一条提案获得通过。 反过来再想想，如果美国金融系统果真像许多人说的那样脆弱不堪，为何我们还要如此费尽心思去保留它？如果只是区区1,000亿美元，又或是3,000亿美元的次级贷款损失就能导致整个系统的崩溃，或许我们该做的是去努力建立一套更好、更强、更可靠的系统。 向经济注入大量的流动性，或是政府通过退税政策?仗义疏财?，这种做法起到的效果可能还不及产生的新问题，而且这也算不上积极的政策，只能说是应付了事。 更具讽刺意味的是，就在昨天所有人都还在为消费开支过高、储蓄不足、债务膨胀和联邦预算赤字等问题担忧，而今天美国政府却在竭尽所能的帮助消费者以低利率办理更多贷款，并为了让老百姓增加开支而不惜背上沉重的预算赤字。这便是大选年的急功近利，这才是投资者应该真正担心的。这看起来就像是回到了七十年代。 好消息是美国金融系统并不像许多博学者所认为的那么脆弱。美国经济遇到的也不过是正常的磕磕碰碰。假设第四季度的GDP增幅折合成年率为1.5%，那2007年美国的实际GDP增幅则达到2.8%，其中下半年的增幅达到3.2%，但别忘记在此期间爆发了所谓的信贷危机。而再看看首次申请失业救济人数这项经济衰退的预警指标，它的表现也不足以令人担心。 鉴于所有的债务都是建立在实际经济活动基础之上，而实体经济又仍然保持着活力，因此美国经济有?覆舟?之险的警告恐怕不过是杞人忧天。沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)、威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)和美国银行(Bank of America)都还在买进，公司帐上现金还有1.1万亿美元。在场外观望的买家可谓又多又强，道指涨至15,000点的可能性要远远大过跌至10,000点的可能性。我劝大家要保持信心，坚守阵地，现在正是买进的好时机。 Brian Wesbury （编者按: Brian Wesbury为First Trust Portfolios, L.P.首席经济学家） |
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7habits
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29-Jan-2008 22:06
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Heart beat Is stabilising... |
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7habits
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22-Jan-2008 21:58
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Rate cut by 0.75%. 29th to 30th Jan, may be expecting another 0.25% or 0.5% rate cut!
Heart beat changing... 15th Feb, heart beat may change again...
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7habits
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12-Jan-2008 10:38
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Correction ...seeing DOW figure tweating upwards (negative territory). |
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7habits
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12-Jan-2008 10:36
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Chart guidance (STI below 3300 next resistance is 3200/3100/3000... and prediction, read the "Market Lips"
An interesting DOW index live components flicking every second last night and Fear being triggered just seeing DOW figure tweating upwards. Emotion is the greatest enemy in risk management. Both Mer and Citigroup in positive region where news keep focusing on write down next week. Positive or negative trend, market emotion will be the call within these 2 weeks. |
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7habits
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11-Jan-2008 23:04
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Dow Watch the Live heartbeat of DOW Index Components now => Click Here CitiBank and JP Morgan are not the stress.... |
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7habits
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08-Jan-2008 20:35
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Bull vs Bear ==> An article from MarketMinder.
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7habits
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07-Jan-2008 22:53
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Pension, I still an amateur. |
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Pension
Elite |
05-Jan-2008 16:04
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7 habbits, u are a learned person and a expert. | ||
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7habits
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05-Jan-2008 14:17
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Think And Grow Rich by Napolean Hill A free ebook in pdf format on Think and Grow Rich to nurture your master mind to share here. You'll never regret reading the ebook once you have the burning desire to succeed. I'm still learning everyday both theory and from experts to fine-tune my own system. You'll be surprise, 2 to 3 low profile experts are in this forum. It's not easy for a retail investor to reap profit from equity jungle! Many sharks around. Everyone has paid his/her school fee to BBs or equity investors. Perhaps, you're one them I have paid previously and it don't come cheap. Cheers 
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7habits
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05-Jan-2008 13:49
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1 - INTRODUCTION
2 ? DESIRE 3 ? FAITH 4 - AUTO-SUGGESTION 5 - SPECIALIZED KNOWLEDGE 6 ? IMAGINATION 7 - ORGANIZED PLANNING 8 ? DECISION 9 ? PERSISTENCE 10 - POWER OF THE MASTER MIND 11 - THE MYSTERY OF SEX TRANSMUTATION 12 - THE SUBCONSCIOUS MIND 13 - THE BRAIN 14 - THE SIXTH SENSE 15 - HOW TO OUTWIT THE SIX GHOSTS OF FEAR
Download a free copy - around 200 pages and start reading every night or over the weekends.U will find your own direction and map out your own strategies or Disciplines. Link Here in pdf format.
Some extracts :
We see men who have accumulated great fortunes, but we often recognize only their triumph, overlooking the temporary defeats which they had to surmount before "arriving." NO FOLLOWER OF THIS PHILOSOPHY CAN REASONABLY EXPECT TO ACCUMULATE A FORTUNE WITHOUT EXPERIENCING "TEMPORARY DEFEAT."
When defeat comes, accept it as a signal that your plans are not sound, rebuild those plans, and set sail once more toward your coveted goal. If you give up before your goal has been reached, you are a "quitter."
THE SEVEN MAJOR NEGATIVE EMOTIONS (To be avoided)
Download Link Here in pdf format
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7habits
Member |
05-Jan-2008 13:28
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Greed is back, thank goodness Any investor worth his or her Ameritrade account has been itching for the chance to get into the financials in the last month. But one snap-back rally doesn't mean the bottom's been touched. David Callaway |
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7habits
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05-Jan-2008 13:18
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Pension, lesson 2. Thanks for the reminder. | ||
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7habits
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05-Jan-2008 13:16
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EconomicsUS unemployment rise sparks recession fears US and UK stocks plunged as unemployment reached a two-year high, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to meet with President Bush |
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Pension
Elite |
05-Jan-2008 13:07
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the time frame of the warrant can give investors lot of stress. share no time frame if you are long term investor. |
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Pension
Elite |
05-Jan-2008 13:00
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those who buy put warrant , tua huat ahhhhhh. | ||
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- Bloomberg