Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 05-May-2008 13:24 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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hahaha. as a long term investment, it's a good preposition, ozone. It's a rare commodity after all; and as china and india grow up, the demand for gold will only increase. Especially within the next 5-10 years. What's interesting is if you look at the demand for gold. it used to be as investment and hedge. but if you look at india's profile, especially, it's for jewelry. 15% of their gold is traded for jewelry, if i remember rightly. ie, as India and China rises, the demand for jewelry will increase; and this means overall gold prices can only go up, since the resources for gold are finite, and it's getting harder and harder to find gold. Not unless you see a sudden switch in appetite to silver or something. but given the long traditions of these countries, it is unlikely the gleam will be taken off anytime soon. Plus, as the US dollar goes down/remains down, the value of gold will only increase. Especially so if the USD loses favour. |
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| 05-May-2008 13:16 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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hi ace6868; i've been on hols and busy with other stuff; so haven't looked in on the market in a while. missed this rally. sigh. 
anyhow, for those of you in gold/interested in gold, please note that while the movements may look big (cos it's actually denominated in lots of 10 shares, rather than 1000), the actual movement for gold is slower than stocks: you can expect to hold it for between 1-3 months to see a profit. anyhow, my last trade for gold was to lock it in at US$92-93. have been watching the retracement. perhaps not quite yet time to enter. fyi, for this counter, consistently, the BBs controlling are Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Global (checked via counterparty). Bona fide BBs, unlike our local BBs. So be very careful. Their strategy tends to be long term, and they'll hold control over the counter for a longer period than our impatient BBs (ie, expect controlled accumulation/distribution). So not particularly a good counter for contra trades. Plus, because they hold a lot of it, you can expect sudden movements at times to flush out the weak hands. By my calculations, they use about US$2mil to control this counter (see market depth, consistently lots of 11,000; 7,000 and 6,000 above/below--depending on direction), of which about US$500k is traded per day. If interested in buying, do it in parts (dollar cost averaging), and not buying it at one shot/daily. This latter may be too risky. Need to play this counter for the long haul for max benefits. |
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| 05-May-2008 13:00 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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haha, singaporegal, if you're bored on weekends, get out of the country. 
elfie just back from (yes, yet another) hols. haha. missed this whole uptrend though; was busy with other things/away.
ace6868, had locked in gold earlier at about 92-93. not sure if i wanna enter it again tho, for now. the commodities are currently retracing. 2nd half of year to next year is expected to be good tho. cos after the beijing olympics and US elections, there'll be nothing to prop up the markets already..... it's high inflation, oil/gold/rice rising, and companies' news have actually not been that good, just "less good than expected", hence markets rallied. a relief rally, so to speak. KLCI is expected to go down after this season; their analysts have said that it's "the tail end of a relief rally in a bear market.". China/HSI will likely be supported due to the Olympics (late jul/aug onward). So this period remains to be seen. You're likely going to see mixed markets. STI is kinda brainless, in that we just follow external news. the DJIA will be the lead indicator for now. be careful of STI 3,300. that'll be the pivot point. whether up or down remains to be seen. if it does go up tho, can expect a pullback, cos the 3,400-3,500 levels is forecasted to hit only at 3-4Q of the year: ie, the rally is too fast too soon. if there is a pullback, then, time to start going long term liao. just my opinions. cheers. :) |
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| 17-Apr-2008 12:54 |
Yanlord Land
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Yanlord
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has been methodically (and rather massively, if you look at its vol) distributed by a foreign BB over the past week. fyi. | ||
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| 15-Apr-2008 15:44 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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lol no such thing as stupid questions, stupidfool. Fools are the wisest of all, because they're willing to learn. :) Careful of trap (bull or bear??? i mean they're ramping it up to shoot it down, like last week/week before). Cos if you look at the charts: the long term trend is clearly ending. Today's up is on low vol, AND gold is rising, too. All signs show unsustainable. limit of STI is at 3,180. enter tues, wed; thurs is when the fall will likely start. (note: likely). falls to the levels before their gaps, and then it is a question of whether they'd take the gapdown. ie, kepcorp support at 10, gap is to ~9.87. look up the rest yourselves, around the dates mar 28 to apr 3rd. ;) hahahhaa. :P happy hunting. wld advise stay out of market both short and long for tmrw. razor thin margins either way. |
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| 15-Apr-2008 11:39 |
SGX
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SGX
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lol. our master shortist has great foresight. those in, be careful. there's a big local BB buying up SGX. fyi only. not vested. |
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| 15-Apr-2008 11:23 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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fyi, technical observation based on MACD and williams: (ie, <1 mth outlook) if you look at the blue kings and courtiers of the STI, most of them are ending their uptrend/just ended it. Williams (short term) shows that they aren't completely oversold yet. In fact, quite a few have a long way more to go. So my best guess is this: STI to fall in coming sessions, led by KepCorp, SGX, UOB, DBS and OCBC. Capland has actually bottomed out already, more or less. 6.17 lowest limit. So the fall will be led by the 5 above. fyi only. |
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| 15-Apr-2008 10:58 |
SGX
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SGX
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longer term (at least 1 mth) outlook for this counter is actually down (check macd and bar chart etc), but there appears to be strong buying support today for some reason. something cooking; be careful. | ||
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| 14-Apr-2008 23:56 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hey victorf, my guess is that you're using a quant method. perhaps adjust the time period T in your calculations (shorten it)? have noticed that since the previous call before this, it went off by at least one dip in between your stated dates. You were, however, deadly accurate on the three calls prior. Chaos Theory: because stock markets are an organic game, so one standard deviation off would skew the entire graph at the end picture. Nevertheless, longterm, you're still one of the more accurate callers i've seen on this forum, so elfin respects to you. :) stupidfool: discipline: ie, do not overtrade. enter only what you can afford to lose. If you have profit, run. don't wait for that 0.005c more. If you are trying to buy, and it's at the bottom, don't wait for 1c more to dip. basically, don't miss the boat either way because of greed or fear. if you should think it's too risky, then, stay out. pls note that market is far from bottoming out: because if you look at williams of the blues, a lot aren't even at their oversold levels yet. so do be careful. volatility will be in, esp this week with the major US firms releasing results. 16 to 21st. |
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| 14-Apr-2008 15:11 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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damn. calculation off by 2c for the tech rebound. gotta improve. sigh. zzz market today man. i'm logging off and going to sleep. nites, guys. :)
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| 14-Apr-2008 09:36 |
SGX
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SGX
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lol. the master shortist is here. i'll let him take over. have fun, you guys. ;) | ||
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| 14-Apr-2008 09:27 |
SGX
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SGX
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fyi my count for sgx was supposed to be open at 8.11, short possible to ~7.8-7.87. but it took the other way and opened at its pivot. ie, likely to go up. that's why i said don't short at opening bell. | ||
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| 14-Apr-2008 09:21 |
SGX
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SGX
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don't short; not yet; follow the bbs. cos it opened at just above its pivot; so not worth then. now wait and see | ||
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| 14-Apr-2008 09:01 |
SGX
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SGX
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don't short at open, wait for the whiplash back. thanks lookcc, got the news. :) | ||
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| 14-Apr-2008 00:25 |
SGX
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SGX
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hey lookcc, could you provide the link to the news? can't find it. thanks. | ||
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| 13-Apr-2008 12:31 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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technically, cosco is a cut because it has just begun a new downtrend. if you compare its charts from mar 25 to apr 10, it's similar to yzj from feb 6 to mar 3. (1.01 to low of 0.78 before recovery to present day). that's a ~23% drop before recovery. (the following for short term only): Taking cosco's high of 2.96 on the 11th, means a comparative lowest low possible for cosco is ~2.28 in the next 14 trading days. By fibo count: 2 waves to this fall. first support at 2.77. Then either a tech rebound to sub $3, or a fall to 2.36 possible. Which direction will depend on the speed of the meltdown and the direction of the volume. Still too early to be hunting for value, if one's a serious investor. Cosco is not a value investment, btw. it's a growth stock. If you're talking about genuine value, then note that cosco's current NAV is only 42c. Even if it were to grow at the same pace, ie, 86% increase in profit and NAV increase of 140% (FY06 NAV = 30c, FY07 NAV = 42c, assume FY08 = 58.8c), then fair value fully rated book to price at 3x for cosco is only 1.76, taking into account future earnings. Also note that all the Houses have been calling a buy on cosco, yet if you read the fine print, they've been reducing profit targets. From a high of $9++ in just dec, to now, DBS's target of $4, as another forumer posted below. All the while, Houses calling buy, buy, buy, outperform, outperform, outperform. Meanwhile, shall we be rational and look at the charts? ie, see what is, not what you want to see, or what others tell you: Cosco on dec 3rd = 6.7. (We'll give a chance and ignore the sudden tanking from the 9th of Apr as overenthusiastic shortists.) Cosco on apr 4th = 3.6. Let the techs speak for themselves. The trend above all else. |
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| 10-Apr-2008 16:35 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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e-bird, if you mean technically, then in the mid-long term, cosco has only just started its downtrend. given the severity of the selling tho, there'll be brief rebounds here and then. be careful of break below 2.81 on increasing sell. that means breakdown of the M formation to new lows. |
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| 10-Apr-2008 13:57 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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86 to strike or no buy. follow trend. it's still downing a bit. foreign controlled. ok market starting soon. byes people! :) | ||
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| 10-Apr-2008 13:54 |
SGX
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SGX
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lol yes sunshine, enjoy yourself. ;) idesa, give me more credit than that leh. geez. hahahah. ok, *zip* sat no more. watch cosco. i think small fries died big on that. don't get itchy and short now pls. in case kena TH or something.... not full time cos my parents won't allow me. hahahaha. i need to show solid evidence of success first. |
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| 10-Apr-2008 12:47 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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macquarie is the other BB in on this. not sure if they going long or short tho. basically, small fries, stay out. not worth. i'm not even in, what does that tell ya. |
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