Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 10-Jun-2008 14:46 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yea cyjjerry, that's why it may be dangerous to short/long a counter. all it takes is one BB to give up and throw/buy, and you'll see large movement. not worth the risk to me. |
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| 10-Jun-2008 14:26 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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HSI followed the SCI. shanghai tanked 7% as we speak. catch up from yesterday and the central bank's sudden raise for reserves by 100 pts. DJIA futures down too. sit out and do nothing. :) |
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| 10-Jun-2008 11:09 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hm. wonder if this will be the day that we end below 1bil in vol. |
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| 10-Jun-2008 10:59 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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may be a better idea not to move today, be it long or short. still a lot of data to be released from the US these two weeks. Lehman brothers just reported a 2.8billion loss. MS and Goldman come up in the next two weeks. There's also oil prices. Vol is too low for effective shorting on most counters, not unless you're willing to risk a naked short. though given the volatility, i personally would prefer to stay out. |
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| 09-Jun-2008 16:44 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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haha. does anyone else think we'll end below 1bil in vol today? yea. euro 2008 easier way to make money. haha. |
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| 09-Jun-2008 14:12 |
Best World
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THE BEST IS YET TO BE
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fyi for those in: the report was factually inaccurate. The sale was not of 550,000 shares as reported in the news article. It was of 1 mil shares. at 54c. The BUSD data shows it very clearly. Repeated from my previous post: "there is little BB action in this counter actually. If it's a local BB, it's a small one. The major dumping was due to a one million shares sale on wed/thurs at 54c. Likely to be insider trade/top 20 shareholder trade if so, as it represents 0.5% of the total share capital of the company (fyi, usually, the smallest of the top twenty shareholders will hold about 2% of a company's stock, or less.). " Fundamental-wise, nothing changed really. just to expect some headwinds from oil prices increase and the USD depreciation. key will be how their indon part of the business has grown: look out for it in the AR released in the next few months. If that is a growth, then it's no problem. Wait for the overhang and shock to be absorbed, the stock should slowly creep back up; unless other institutional investors decide to follow and dump. |
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| 09-Jun-2008 14:07 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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not time to buy yet. this current downtrend will be broadly limited because of the low volume, but we can't rule out the possibility of some counters being shocked down. be cautious ahead of china and HSI trading tomorrow. Lehman Brothers, MS and Goldman releases their 2Q results in the next two weeks; there are rumors that Lehman is going to report a 2bil loss (as opposed to earlier estimates of negative 300-700 mil). CPI is out tonight, and heavy data the rest of the week. If you must bargain hunt, do it in stages. I personally wouldn't start hunting today though. HSI and SCI will be a drag on the STI tomorrow for sure. unless US does a sudden spike tonight, which is unlikely. Patterns. Look to March lows as a guide, when MACD starts to turn up (at or above those lows), that is when you buy. Not now.
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| 09-Jun-2008 01:56 |
Others
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Good time to buy car?
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eh, tanglinboy, you don't really have to worry about explosions. For one thing, the flash point for CNG is like, 1,100 degrees celsius. While petrol (gasoline) is only 250 degrees celsius. (the flash point refers to the lowest temperature at which the substance can form an ignitable mixture with air). ie, you have a much higher chance of dying in a petroleum-driven car flameball than in a CNG flameball. besides, the tanks are not that easy to pierce or rupture. also, as a gas, it'd immediately dissipate into the environment. unlike petrol, which will puddle and pool on the ground, hence forming a more dangerous environment in the event of sparks from the engine during an accident. and no, i don't drive. 
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| 08-Jun-2008 18:03 |
Best World
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THE BEST IS YET TO BE
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just read their AR and saw the technicals for fun. FA-wise: the company is ok, though nothing remarkable. Previous PAT grew by 7.2%, NAV at 23.12 cf 22.06 in 2007. EPS also grew, 1.1 cf to 1.03 previous year. Expenses increased, however, by about 10%. Some headwinds though: Indon is their major market of the direct selling; but the biz is losing quite a bit in Malaysia. Also expanding into china. Oil prices as well as the depreciation of the USD will give them a double whammy, since their stock currency is in the USD: they're forced to take a forex loss each trade they do. Also, they're highly dependent on freight charges which have been going up since the oil prices spike. They're in vietnam too, which accounted for a part of their previous, rapid growth. Vietnam (if you follow the papers) is on the brink of a collapse though. And if the Joymain acquisition goes through, you'll expect NAV to fall by quite a bit: they're waiting for regulatory approval for this. Technical-wise: there is little BB action in this counter actually. If it's a local BB, it's a small one. The major dumping was due to a one million shares sale on wed/thurs at 54c. Likely to be insider trade/top 20 shareholder trade if so, as it represents 0.5% of the total share capital of the company (fyi, usually, the smallest of the top twenty shareholders will hold about 2% of a company's stock, or less.). In which case, caution is advised: likely they know of something that we don't. Also need to be careful because this counter's share float is very small, and the buy support is thin. Hence likely to have a scenario whereby one large lot dumping will drop the price, and panic others into selling/margin calls. Vicious cycle ensues. o/w, a fair value support for the counter is about 45c. RSI and money flow way oversold; don't think it can go down much longer. the previous support of 43c is the level to watch. If additional dumping occurs, then it's likely to be as with the case of sembmar before the scandal broke: there was major dumping by fund houses then, even though nothing was apparently known to the public. yes scotty. MLM accounts for 98.4% of their revenue. |
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| 08-Jun-2008 15:22 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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don't think the drop will be that bad actually. fact is that most savvy investors, foreign funds and retailers are out of the market already; the low volume is only because of the local BBs and the gungho small fries. so loss is likely to be limited by bargain hunters. would however be a mistake to start bargain hunting too early though. not time yet. patience. wait for the foreign funds to move. |
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| 04-Jun-2008 21:58 |
Others
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Forex Junction
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yes, forex is based on margin. what's considered safe? it's about prudent money management, really. never risk more than you can afford. what i've learnt is this: it's entirely possible to make a daily, stable income with forex, but you need a lot of patience, and discipline. You can't keep entering trades (overplaying) or betting. That's just gambling. And technical skills is a must. not all charts will work for all pairs. so you need to know your pair very well. And key your technicals. Keep an open mind and learn from everyone; there are some good people here on this forum. :) Have just started out in forex myself, but have been in equities for abt 10 years. All in all, i'm finding that i like forex better, because i'm a techie by nature; and forex works better with charts: less liable to BB manipulation than stocks. Especially because the Spore market is currently on low volume, so it's not good for retail players; too susceptible to BB swings. cashiertan and tabbykat could probably advise you on which platform to use. FXCM and metatrader seem to be popular with the crowd here. i use a different one tho. oh, and remember the KISS rule above all: Keep It Simple, Stupid. elfie only plays the UJ pair. ;) |
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| 04-Jun-2008 21:18 |
Others
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Forex Junction
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btw, a bit belated, but thanks cashiertan for recommending that i look at forex. having great fun with it, still early days for me, but i see its potential as a consistent and stable source of income. :) an open mind aids learning more. |
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| 04-Jun-2008 21:15 |
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Forex Junction
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those playing the UJ pair, be careful tonight. market consolidating in the previous day's pivot point of 10454. so a break will send down to previous levels test of 10376, an up is a test of 10523. baseer. it was possible to catch that 130-150 pip swing; if you had positioned for the news via the 1 or 2 min chart, and ride it upward all the way. would take nerves though. otherwise, it was a news release event: no real signs, except that it was at the positioning pivot and could go either way then. in fact, technicals had pointed more for a down. what was better was to take the ride down. it maxed out at 10555 or so; near the peak of the previous high. all signals overbought then. that was a more technical event: the ride down to about 10490 and back to pivot range. watch for repositioning of the pivot range with tonight's news. major news are out; it's good, but the DJIA looks down likely. good news priced in prior, so it's a sell on news strategy (talking abt equities) |
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| 04-Jun-2008 21:06 |
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Sea of red
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SGH indicator in full force, i see. hehe. be careful of DJIA movements. news are good but market had long ago priced in the good news, that's why it's down. |
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| 28-May-2008 13:31 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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agree with CWquah and victorf actually. markets bottoming out. not yet though. wait for chance to buy on dip and just lock in for rest of year already. sit out the volatility. Olympics in Aug, US elections in Nov. no way the BBs would not ramp up the markets then. (barring any unforeseen circumstances, of course) |
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| 28-May-2008 13:27 |
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Forex Junction
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heya you guys, just reposting a post on the dow thread i did here. :) and yups, i'm playing only the UJ pair. and only in the day. ------------------- Last night (or day for the US folks) was the day after a long holiday, Memorial Day weekend. Now, the data to be released: consumer confidence, housing starts, housing prices, were mostly bad. Oil and gold are spiking. The US dollar is dropping. Hence, the standard guess for the DJIA open? It's a down. BUT....what does the US Fed do? A big dealer has 210 million sell options for the US/JPY pair at 104 (ie, 1 US dollar buys you 104 yen), expiring at 10 am EST. A sell option means that if the price at 10 am was below 104, the person holding the option makes a profit. So at 9 am, the schilling report came out. Bad news on housing, as expected. The news at 10 am is also bad; which the big boys have prior konwledge of. ie, the DJIA should do a major down, and oil, gas, gold should spike. BUT, the US/JPY pair starts a slow climb up. Then in 15 min flat between 950 am and 1005 am, they ramp the US/JPY pair up to 104.3. Whoever that big dealer was lost big. And who bought the options from him won big. How big? 210 million options x 30 pips. ie, 59 billion USD. Made in 15 min flat. That's what's supporting the US economy. The shadow dealings. Hence the rise of the DJIA last night against bad news, and why oil retreated to <130 per barrel. it's pure psychology. brilliant. |
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| 28-May-2008 13:22 |
Others
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DOW
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Last night was the day after a long holiday, Memorial Day weekend. Now, the data to be released: consumer confidence, housing starts, housing prices, were mostly bad. Oil and gold are spiking. The US dollar is dropping. Hence, the standard guess for the DJIA open? It's a down. BUT....what does the US Fed do? A big dealer has 210 million sell options for the US/JPY pair at 104 (ie, 1 US dollar buys you 104 yen), expiring at 10 am EST. A sell option means that if the price at 10 am was below 104, the person holding the option makes a profit. So at 9 am, the schilling report came out. Bad news on housing, as expected. The news at 10 am is also bad; which the big boys have prior knowledge of. ie, the DJIA should do a major down, and oil, gas, gold should spike. BUT, the US/JPY pair starts a slow climb up. Then in 15 min flat between 950 am and 1005 am, they ramp the US/JPY pair up to 104.3. Whoever that big dealer was lost big. And who bought the options from him won big. How big? 210 million options x 30 pips. ie, 59 billion USD. Made in 15 min flat. That's what's supporting the US economy/DJIA. The shadow dealings. Hence the rise of the DJIA last night against bad news, and why oil retreated to <130 per barrel. it's pure psychology. brilliant. |
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| 27-May-2008 15:58 |
Yanlord Land
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Lord of the China property market
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yl responds to charts pretty well actually. use williams at 7 days is good. overall uptrend looks to be in place. ;) | ||
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| 26-May-2008 16:26 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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wait for index to be around 3,000 before starting to buy. when volume is this low, it's very, very easy to manipulate the market. meanwhile, better to be twiddling your thumbs than jumping in to try and catch falling knives. caution is better in such a market. | ||
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| 16-May-2008 19:27 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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on shorting: nah...singaporegal has her own method, which works for her. so really, why rock the boat? besides, it's not necessary to make money ALL the time. personally, i don't do shorting either. i find it easier to concentrate on one direction. particularly in a mixed market like this: not all stocks are going down. some have in fact bottomed out and rose/rising. on AK's quote about love: haha, money buys one freedom. that's the sad truth. altho, between freedom, love and money, which would one choose? human love is always ephemeral; subject to the vagaries of time and circumstance. that's why you have the phrase, cedit amor rebus: Love yields to circumstance. |
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