Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 22-Jun-2008 00:24 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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HLJHLJ: confirm your time periods again? how can one buy on 24th march and sell on 9 march? or did you mean May? Your time period is the most important thing: how long are you playing the counter for? For a long trend, ignore williams, ride MACD. For short trend, williams is your most important indicator. And yups smartbear, TA is never 100% accurate. Never believe anyone who tells ya otherwise. The only thing TA does, is to improve the probability that your trade is right. It does not, however, guarantee it. Sudden jump: no idea why. BUSD did show large institutional buying the two days prior tho. Note that in my post, i had said for short rebound on long term downtrend. and to take profit at the daily range of capitaland. As repeated: "ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target." ie, i wouldn't have waited for 6.08: no one would have predicted that jump. What i'd have done, is to run it at 6.91, the previous high. Setting of profit target has to be realistic. I'm posting because it's rather tiring seeing small fries jumping around and aimlessly, and getting tricked all the time. Rowlsey, banjoo, jade, gems, chinanewtown, chinahongxing, Xpress, cosco, yzj, etcetc. I read far more threads than i post on. Wouldn't claim to be a saviour or totally accurate or whatever crap though. TA is about probability, not 100% "I am right". And haha. it's one thing to post, it's another if people can learn. What i'm giving is only main readings: the finer points can only be learnt intraday or live interaction. Besides, all advice is pointless if people cannot overcome their own personaliy: trigger happy fingers, greed, hope, fear, etc. At the end of the day, trading is very much personality dependent. What method works for one person, may cause failure for another. You need to be very self aware, and independent enough to take all opinions, but form your own and keep your own strat. i'm just one more voice here for people to add to their assessment: not the be all and end all, nor the gospel truth. i have no pretensions about that. (eg, one stock i consistently fail on: SGX. that's why i don't play it: it doesn't work with my strat and timeframe). i've definitely been wrong many times. which is why i always say, i have no hesitation in cutting. Pride is the one emotion that is useless in the stock market. Cheers. :) |
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| 21-Jun-2008 15:53 |
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thanks smartbear. :) weekend's here, yea, no need to get obsessed over the market. short lesson for the noobs while i'm bored now. haha. Capitaland is the eg cited, closing price of OHLC cited. ------------------- On prices and relativity. One of the key mistakes I've realised traders, even experienced ones, tend to make: we fix our price targets, and get wholly caught up in them. Partly because we read analysts' reports, and believe in their 'target prices.' When really, price is a relative thing. And targets are moving targets, not fixed targets. Say you had the power of foresight. April 15, close of capitaland at 6.24. Would you buy it, if you knew that it would go up to 7.04 on Apr 28th? Then a second time: 2nd June, capland at 6.35. Would you buy it, if you knew that by Jun 12, it'd fall to 5.85? 6.35 is cheap relative to 7.04, isn't it? But it's expensive relative to 5.85. And that's precisely what I mean. Prices are relative. So what's an investor/trader to do? Apply this knowledge foreward. Hold in your head the idea of price targets, but always keep in mind they are relative and movable. So apply it: For shortterm trading (< 5day, likely intraday, esp if you know capitaland): Check 12 jun to 20 jun. MACD--it's a definite downtrend. But wills show oversold from 10 jun. ie, what you can hope for is a short uptrend on a long downtrend. technical rebound to be caught. The lowest low possible is given by the support in Feb and March, ~5.5, which it tested twice but did not break (ie, break of this would signal new downtrend. o/w, it's a rebound). Signal to watch was the doji on 13th, close of 5.8. ie, break the doji, it's downward to 5.5. o/w, a rebound is on from there. Even odds either way. 5.5 is just a mark, it is not a "confirmed target". Note: 16th june closed higher at 5.9, 17th june dipped to 5.65, but rebounded and closed 5.72, and then 18th june closed approx even high but higher low. Notably, the close of 18th is higher than 17th at 5.84. With williams staging an overall rebound from 10th to 18th. ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target. Relative to 5.5, 5.75 is expensive. But if you had known it'd not dip to that, but go up instead to 6.08? Isn't 5.75 cheap then? And that is what I mean. Relativity. Price targets are artificial. Bottomline: keep fluid in trading. Empiricism trumps theory always. Also: Keep in mind that during all these times, how much does the fundamental of the company change? Nothing, isn't it? So do fundamentals really move a market, or are they just a reason for movement? That markets ultimately move on only one thing: perception, isn't it? That's where technicals come in. |
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| 20-Jun-2008 22:41 |
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no, fivestar. i mean STI will not dive. don't look at intraday fluctuations, don't look at the index itself: remember that is made of lesser stocks than before. ie, very easy to give wrong impression. all you need are the three banks to go down, and it appears as though the entire market is tanking. But that's false impression: like i've been saying, it's a mixed market. Look rationally at the charts of the counters you're into. We won't know til time proves it, of course, and i'd be first to bail if i were wrong hehe, but it does appear as though bottoms have been found for some counters already. Avoid speculative pennies though. Go slow in parts. And keep a weather eye on gold. it's been sneaking up with married deals. o_0 (that's for those into index linked warrants). 3,000 is the pivot point. Pivots are fun to watch. Playtime. 
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| 20-Jun-2008 21:48 |
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haha. thanks for the compliment but it isn't prophetic, ipunter. if i were, i'd be a gazillionaire already. :) common sense: DJIA on verge of 12,000 breakdown. The upspike of the previous three days was on low vol, while selldowns were on high vols. same for oil: 'retracement' are false downs. Oil is what's affecting US sentiment. Today's quadruple witching day for the US--stock options and futures, index options and futures, all expire. Highly volatile. With no fresh news, momentum continues in its usual path. ie, down. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out. The surprise for most will be STI on monday. hehe. |
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| 20-Jun-2008 19:40 |
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haha. can expect to see three digit dive for djia tonight. |
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| 20-Jun-2008 16:40 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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ah ok. if the last of the BBs have changed their sell to a buy call, means they're done ramping up the counter and have or will be exiting soon. leave it to the retailers who buy it from them. standard game play lah. |
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| 20-Jun-2008 16:31 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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correction: MS may not be on Gokongwei's side. What is evident, however, is that they will be kingmakers with their % of UIC, in the event of a GO. |
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| 20-Jun-2008 16:26 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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same BB. Telegraph, Summit, are vehicles owned or operated by Gokongwei. MS appears to be on Gokongwei's side, if you track history of buys and sells. For UIC there are only two players: Gokongwei and WCY. |
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| 20-Jun-2008 03:14 |
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novicex, MACD is the easiest and clearest to read for turn of uptrend. o/w, it's when a stock holds constant, for days, if not weeks, while the rest of the market is sinking, and everytime it dips below a certain point, buyers appear to shore it up. I daresay bases have been found for some of the blues already. |
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| 19-Jun-2008 16:54 |
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ST Engg
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just did a quick estimate of BUSD, large lots traded (50 and above in a single trade): for today: roughly net of 1,400 lots sold, BUT, one single married trade of 3,300 lots. Believe that was a buy up. with another 400+ lots married trade (another buy up). ie, net picture today is overall accumulation of 2,300 lots, BB action. Support at 2.9. |
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| 19-Jun-2008 16:46 |
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ST Engg
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selling overdone. being massively bought up now. typical trick. call sell on one hand, and buying on the other. |
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| 19-Jun-2008 16:21 |
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look carefully. some stocks appear to have bottomed out already. did say yest that, more precisely, it was a mixed market. |
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| 19-Jun-2008 15:18 |
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careful. SCI has dived 188 pts ((6.42%) and HSI has dropped 511 pts (2.19%). It effectively cancels out the gains yesterday. |
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| 19-Jun-2008 12:04 |
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oops. article too long. hehe. for those whose eyes are glazing over. in summary: Oil prices are up because of speculation. The ICE exchange, which is where oil futures are traded in London, owned by a US company. ICE has been cited in two congressional investigation studies for manipulation, but nothing was ever done about it. So for traders, pay attention. When GS, MS, ML, JPM all say buy oil, that is when you sell. Arbitrarily, i'd say about 170 per barrel. Remember, before the crash of Aug 07, the standard phrase was "awash in liquidity"? And "suddenly", the subprime came up, and global banks froze. And it became "credit is tight". But think about it: How can fundamentals change in a few months? The rot was there since Greenspan's time. The dotcom bubble was another one. Large banks bought in, called for a 'meteoric rally', and sold to small timers, whereupon the dotcom crash occurred. You can see the same thing will happen with oil and commodities. That will be when markets reverse. Distinguish between the talk and the walk. Quite simply, there's too much money involved for there to be any 'justice'. Laws and governments are made by the wealthy to serve the wealthy. Afterall, what discernible benefit is there in serving the poor? Winner takes all. That's how it's always been in the market. |
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| 19-Jun-2008 11:56 |
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eh loyfam, it's all part of the market game. if you were on the winning end, would you care about the losers? that's life. The market is a dog-eat-dog world. For those who still insist that markets move on fundamentals, just a differing opinion from another site i frequent, as posted below. About oil prices: Frankly, if you look at the charts, 150 is a given in the next two months. Note that any down turn is in cents, while the up is in dollars. DJIA is overreacting to the 'downs' in oil, when they're just respites in buying. btw, across the board: vol increase in market yesterday was due to retailers biting and local BBs churning, i couldn't detect foreign buying in a lot of counters, except for isolated lots here and there. Which was why i was kinda puzzled at first by the increase, since if you net off the large lots bought/sold, it turns out about even for a lot of counters (ie, churning going on). ---------------- (This article is from Asia Times Online.) Oil price mocks fuel realities By F William Engdahl As business and consumers consider the implications for them of crude oil selling at US$130-plus per barrel, they should bear in mind that, at a conservative calculation, at least 60% of that price comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York Nymex futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or over-the-counter trading to avoid scrutiny (see Speculators knock OPEC off oil-price perch, Asia Times Online, May 6, 2008). US margin rules of the government's Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex by paying only 6% of the value of the contract. At the present price of around $130 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme "leverage" of 16 to one helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in subprime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population. The hoax of "peak oil" - namely the argument that oil production has hit the point where more than half all reserves have been used and the world is on the downslope of oil at cheap price and abundant quantity - has enabled this costly fraud to continue since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, with the help of key banks, oil traders and big oil majors. Washington is trying to shift blame, as always, to Arab oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The problem is not a lack of crude oil supply. In fact, the world is in over-supply now. Yet the price climbs relentlessly higher. Why? The answer lies in what are clearly deliberate US government policies that permit the unbridled oil price manipulations. World oil demand flat, prices boom The chief market strategist for one of the world's leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of JP Morgan Funds, recently admitted something telling to the Washington Post: "One of the things I think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil consumption is not that strong." One of the stories used to support the oil futures speculators is the allegation that China's demand for imported oil is exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand equilibrium. Yet the facts do not support the China demand thesis. The US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) concluded in its most recent monthly Short Term Energy Outlook report that US oil demand is expected to decline by 190,000 barrels per day (b/d) this year. That is mainly owing to the deepening economic recession. Chinese consumption, the EIA says, far from exploding, is expected to increase this year by only 400,000 barrels a day. That is hardly the "surging oil demand" blamed on China in the media. Last year, China imported 3.2 million barrels per day, and its estimated usage was around 7 million b/d total. The US, by contrast, consumes around 20.7 million b/d. That means the key oil-consuming nation, the US, is experiencing a significant drop in demand. China, which consumes only a third of the oil the US does, will see a minor rise in import demand compared with the total daily world oil output of some 84 million barrels, less than half of one percent of total demand. OPEC has its 2008 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.2 million barrels per day (mm bpd), as slowing economic growth in the industrialized world is offset by slightly growing consumption in developing nations. OPEC predicts that global oil demand in 2008 will average 87 million bpd, largely unchanged from its previous estimate. Demand from China, the Middle East, India and Latin America is forecast to be stronger, but the European Union and North American demand will be lower. So the world's largest oil consumer faces a sharp decline in consumption, a decline that will worsen as the housing and related economic effects of the US securitization crisis in finance de-leverages. The price in normal open or transparent markets should presumably be falling not rising. No supply crisis justifies the way the world's oil is being priced today. Big new oil fields coming online Not only is there no supply crisis to justify such a price bubble. There are several giant new oil fields due to begin production over the course of 2008 to further add to supply. The world's single-largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, is finalizing plans to boost drilling activity by a third and increase investments by 40%. Saudi Aramco's plan, which runs from 2009 to 2013, is expected to be approved by the company's board and the Oil Ministry this month. The kingdom is in the midst of a $50 billion oil production expansion plan to meet growing demand in Asia and other emerging markets and is expected to boost its pumping capacity to a total of 12.5 mm bpd by next year, about 11% up from the present capacity of 11.3 mm bpd. In April this year, Saudi Arabia's Khursaniyah oilfield began pumping and will soon add another 500,000 bpd to world oil supply of high grade Arabian light crude. In addition, the country's Khurais oilfield development, the largest of Saudi Aramco's projects, will boost the production capacity of Saudi oilfields from 11.3 million bpd to 12.5 million bpd by 2009. Khurais is planned to add another 1.2 million bpd of high-quality Arabian light crude to Saudi Arabia's export capacity. Brazil's Petrobras is in the early phase of exploiting newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as great or greater than the North Sea. Petrobras says the new ultra-deep Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the world's "top 10" oil producers, between Nigeria and those of Venezuela. In the US, aside from rumors that the big oil companies have been deliberately sitting on vast new reserves in Alaska for fear that the prices of recent years would plunge on over-supply, the US Geological Survey (USGS)recently issued a report that confirmed major new oil reserves in an area called the Bakken, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and south-eastern Saskatchewan. The USGS estimates up to 3.65 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken. These are just several confirmations of large new oil reserves to be exploited. Iraq, where the Anglo-American Big Four oil majors are salivating to get their hands on unexplored fields, is believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia while much of the world has yet to be explored for oil. At prices above $60 a barrel huge new potentials become economic. The major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices. Here they have some help from Wall Street banks and the two major oil trade exchanges - Nymex and London-Atlanta's ICE and ICE Futures. Then why do prices still rise? There is growing evidence that the recent speculative bubble in oil, which has gone asymptotic since January, is about to pop. Late last month, in Dallas, Texas, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists held its annual conference, with major oil executives and geologists present. According to one participant, knowledgeable oil industry chief executives reached the consensus that "oil prices will likely soon drop dramatically and the long-term price increases will be in natural gas". Just a few days earlier, Lehman Brothers, a Wall Street investment bank, had said that the current oil price bubble was coming to an end. Michael Waldron, the bank's chief oil strategist, was quoted in Britain's Daily Telegraph on April 24 saying, "Oil supply is outpacing demand growth. Inventories have been building since the beginning of the year." In the US, stockpiles of oil climbed by almost 12 million barrels inApril according to the May 7 EIA monthly report on inventory, up by nearly 33 million barrels since January. At the same time, MasterCard's May 7 US gasoline report showed that gas demand has fallen by 5.8%. And refiners are reducing their refining rates dramatically to adjust to the falling gasoline demand. They are now running at 85% of capacity, down from 89% a year ago, in a season when production is normally 95%. The refiners today are clearly trying to draw down gasoline inventories to bid gasoline prices up. "It's the economy, stupid," to paraphrase Bill Clinton's infamous 1992 election quip to daddy Bush. It's called economic recession. The May 8 report from Oil Movements, a British company that tracks oil shipments worldwide, shows that oil in transit on the high seas is also quite strong. Almost every category of shipment is running higher than it was a year ago. The report notes that, "In the West, a big share of any oil stock building done this year has happened offshore, out of sight." Some industry insiders say the global oil industry from the activities and stocks of the Big Four to the true state of tanker and storage and liftings, is the most secretive industry in the world with the possible exception of the narcotics trade. Goldman Sachs again in the middle The oil price today, unlike 20 years ago, is determined behind closed doors in the trading rooms of giant financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank or UBS. The key exchange in the game is the London ICE Futures Exchange (formerly the International Petroleum Exchange). ICE Futures is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Atlanta Georgia International Commodities Exchange. ICE in Atlanta was founded in part by Goldman Sachs, which also happens to run the world's most widely used commodity price index, the GSCI, which is over-weighted to oil prices. As I noted in my earlier article, ICE was the focus of a recent congressional investigation. It was named both in the Senate's Permanent Sub-committee on Investigations' June 27, 2006, Staff Report and in the House Committee on Energy and Commerce's hearing in December 2007, which looked into unregulated trading in energy futures. Both studies concluded that the energy price climb to $128 and beyond is driven by billions of dollars' worth of oil and natural gas futures contracts being placed on the ICE. Through a convenient regulation exception granted by the George W Bush administration in January 2006, the ICE Futures trading of US energy futures is not regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), even though the ICE Futures US oil contracts are traded in ICE affiliates in the US. And at Enron's request, the CFTC exempted the over-the-counter oil futures trades in 2000. So it is no surprise to see in a May 6 report from Reuters that Goldman Sachs announces oil could in fact be on the verge of another "super spike", possibly taking oil as high as $200 a barrel within the next six to 24 months. That headline, "$200 a barrel!" became the major news story on oil for the next two days. How many gullible lemmings followed behind with their money bets? Arjun Murti, Goldman Sachs' energy strategist, blamed what he called "blistering" (sic) demand from China and the Middle East, combined with his assertion that the Middle East is nearing its maximum ability to produce more oil. "Peak oil" mythology again helps Wall Street. The degree of unfounded hype reminds one of the self-serving Wall Street hype in 1999-2000 around dot.com stocks or Enron. In 2001, just before the dot.com crash in the NASDAQ, some Wall Street firms were pushing the sale to the gullible public of stocks that their companies were quietly dumping. Or they were pushing dubious stocks for companies where their affiliated banks had a financial interest. In short, as later came out in Congressional investigations, companies with a vested interest in a certain financial outcome used the media to line their pockets and that of their companies, leaving the public investor holding the bag. It would be interesting for Congress to subpoena the records of the futures positions of Goldman Sachs and a handful of other major energy futures players to see if they are invested to gain from a further rise in oil to $200, not forgetting that 16 to one leverage with which a hedge fund or bank can buy oil futures. We are hit with an endless series of plausible arguments for the high price of oil: a "terrorism risk premium", a "blistering" rise in demand of China and India; unrest in the Nigerian oil region; oil pipelines' blown up in Iraq; possible war with Iran ... And above all the hype about peak oil. Oil speculator T Boone Pickens has reportedly raked in a huge profit on oil futures and argues, conveniently, that the world is on the cusp of "peak oil". So does the Houston investment banker and friend of Vice President Dick Cheney, Matt Simmons. As noted in the June 2006 US Senate report, The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices, "There's a few hedge fund managers out there who are masters at knowing how to exploit the peak oil theories and hot buttons of supply and demand, and by making bold predictions of shocking price advancements to come they only add more fuel to the bullish fire in a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy." Will a Democratic Congress act to change the carefully crafted opaque oil futures markets in an election year and risk bursting the bubble? On May 12, the House Energy and Commerce Committee stated it will look at this issue in June. F William Engdahl is author of A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order (PlutoPress), and Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Agenda of Genetic Manipulation (Global Research, available at www.globalresearch.ca). He may be reached at info@engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net. ---------------------- |
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| 19-Jun-2008 11:40 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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TA did not actually show good signs....if you focus on BUSD data for yesterday, what shows is a lot of retailers biting, and BB churning the counter....it wasn't accumulation per se. the rebound was due to SCI/HSI rebound yesterday--off their critical supports as to be expected. (stocks/indices tend to bounce near their technical supports. If you're a long term investor, the idea is to be able to differentiate between a relief rebound and a real rally.) |
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| 18-Jun-2008 00:05 |
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hey blastoff: yea, some i'm eyeing but it's not yet time to buy. why don't you say what you're interested in instead. there are too many stocks on the market otherwise. you do seem to be interested in capitaland tho. for that counter i would look for 5.5 min as first entry. preferably below 5.3. price targets are fluid though: it all depends on the trend. what's cheap today can seem expensive tomorrow, and vice versa. :) For those into feng shui: using the Five Elements: year of the earth rat, earth, foundation on water (rat belongs to the strongest water element). yang earth above, ying water below: A floating world of instability. what's of value goes underground. so the stocks to do with earth, and born of earth (ie, metal) will do well. ie, gold. agriculture. Destructive cycle: since it is a year of water and earth: earth destroys water, water destroys fire. So stocks of the fire and water industries will not do so well. ie, shipping, communications, (Water), finance, airline, entertainment (Fire). Generally, the stock market belongs to the Fire element. A year of Water will bring about a 'cooling' effect. To cool down the Fire years of '06 and '07. And before anyone asks, yes, i'm interested in such esoteric stuff, but i'm a free thinker. 
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| 17-Jun-2008 16:42 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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gokongwei buying, most likely. if you check SGX announcement, the previous was by him. high vol due to one married deal at 910 am; 1.7mil shares changed hands. |
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| 17-Jun-2008 15:05 |
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haha. eh, short term for some ppl is 5 days, for others it is 3 mths. you'll havta state specifically. and note that the shorter the term, the lesser the realistic profit target. you'll havta go for the highly volatile counters then. very risky. |
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| 17-Jun-2008 14:53 |
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ah. Blastoff. the appropriate response: what is your time frame of play and target profit? How long are you willing to hold? |
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