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Latest Posts By richtan - Supreme      About richtan
First   < Newer   621-640 of 3268   Older>   Last  

11-Sep-2009 02:05 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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Hi jazzoff,

Many thanks for your kind help n effort, so sorry I was too pre-occupied in other threads.

Btw, all these can be found th the thread "Learning TA" under "General", "Trading Techniques" tat I specially created with newbies in mind, hopefully they benefit from it.



jazzoff      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:43) Posted:



Hi Salute,

While waiting for richtan to reply maybe you can check out the websites as listed below. These are the websites as provided by richtan in his earlier threads:

1. http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/index.html

2. http://www.singaporestocks.com.sg/

3. http://www.oilngold.com/

4. http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/technical_analysis.php

5. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

6. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bMO8Gjlwik

7. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857&cmd=show&disp=p

P.S. Richtan hope that you do not mind me partially replying to this query on your behalf.

Good Post  Bad Post 
11-Sep-2009 01:55 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
 
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start

making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the

rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your

next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.

This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

Good Post  Bad Post 
11-Sep-2009 01:29 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Ok... ok...ok being a gentleman, not as wat u said "ungentleman", I walk the extra mile to post the chart for u to see, not bullshitting but real hardcore facts to silence your hard criticism n trumpet blowing.

 

 



richtan      ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 01:19) Posted:

Wat makes u think tat TA practitioner (I prefer not to use the word expert as u need to pay a bomb to consult them, not as all these free postings in a forum) miss the train, u r forgiven since u r so anti-TA tat I believe u dun even look at charts.

Just do me a favour, pull out STI chart (as a gauge of the mkt trend), since u know nuts about TA, let me guide u along:

 Draw a line from STI bottom from Nov to end Feb/early Mar and another line for MACD for the same time-frame, u will notice tat there is a bullish divergence, fortelling an impending rally in the making, also in early Mar, there is candle reversal pattern which of course u dun know since u dun believe in TA n I m sure u know nuts about TA.

So, It  is not just u always thinking u r the only smart alec tat spotted the rally in Mar, fyi, not only u made big money in early Mar, frankly. I hate to brag but since u think u r the only person tat spot the rally in early Mar n said TA missed the boat, let me tell u, i too make big profits from the Mar rally, though I initially just dun want to go around bragging, just not my style.



cheongwee      ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:50) Posted:



freeme...did u miss the train in Mar this year???...say thanks to your laziness...otherwise, you would have become another TA expert that miss the train..

can you do a TA and FA for me for Jade and centillion...pls..i am vested here..


Good Post  Bad Post 
11-Sep-2009 01:19 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Wat makes u think tat TA practitioner (I prefer not to use the word expert as u need to pay a bomb to consult them, not as all these free postings in a forum) miss the train, u r forgiven since u r so anti-TA tat I believe u dun even look at charts.

Just do me a favour, pull out STI chart (as a gauge of the mkt trend), since u know nuts about TA, let me guide u along:

 Draw a line from STI bottom from Nov to end Feb/early Mar and another line for MACD for the same time-frame, u will notice tat there is a bullish divergence, fortelling an impending rally in the making, also in early Mar, there is candle reversal pattern which of course u dun know since u dun believe in TA n I m sure u know nuts about TA.

So, It  is not just u always thinking u r the only smart alec tat spotted the rally in Mar, fyi, not only u made big money in early Mar, frankly. I hate to brag but since u think u r the only person tat spot the rally in early Mar n said TA missed the boat, let me tell u, i too make big profits from the Mar rally, though I initially just dun want to go around bragging, just not my style.



cheongwee      ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:50) Posted:



freeme...did u miss the train in Mar this year???...say thanks to your laziness...otherwise, you would have become another TA expert that miss the train..

can you do a TA and FA for me for Jade and centillion...pls..i am vested here..

Good Post  Bad Post 
11-Sep-2009 00:44 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Smiley hahaha, I think I should take a leaf from u n learn to be lazy so less brickbats from those TA detractors saying "TA is lousy, TA is rubbish .. blah...blah...blah.." n be just a silent observer, but it is just not my style as I like to hope tat by my postings, some fellow knowledgeable TA forumers can exchange pointers with me so tat I can discover those blindspots tat I failed to notice.

freeme      ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 00:12) Posted:

I can see you put in alot of effort in posting ur chart... the reason why i dun do is bec im too lazy.. 

richtan      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:49) Posted:

Hi freeme,

I m happy to know tat u dun quite agree with my TA, precisely the reason why I post my charts, not to show-off my TA skills (I m still learning as the Chinese sayings "Live till old, learn till old"), not solely seeking for agreement but to hope some knowledgeable TA practitioner can exchange pointers n post their alternate views so I can learn.

As per my disclaimer in every of my post: "I may be right or wrong, so dyodd n BOSAYOR"

Since u disagree with some of my TA charts, why not be as generous as me by sharing your TA views.



Good Post  Bad Post 
11-Sep-2009 00:20 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Wen Says China ‘Cannot’ Yet Pull Back on Stimulus (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao signaled he will maintain unprecedented government spending to drive a recovery from the slowest expansion in almost a decade.

“China’s economic rebound is unstable, unbalanced and not yet solid,” Wen said today in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, a city in northeastern China. “We cannot and will not change the direction of our policies when the conditions aren’t appropriate.”

Wen’s remarks reflect a commitment last week from the world’s biggest nations to maintain unprecedented fiscal and monetary measures to secure a recovery from the deepest postwar recession. The comments also may help reassure investors that a slowdown in new loans won’t derail China’s rebound.

“The worst has passed, now it’s about whether China can maintain the strong momentum of a recovery that’s primarily been driven by policy stimulus,” said Wang Qing, chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “Very weak external demand is the key concern.”

Nine months of falling exports, overcapacity in manufacturing and elevated unemployment have restrained the recovery generated by record lending in the first half of the year and a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package.

Stock Market

The Shanghai Composite Index plunged into a bear market, or a decline of at least 20 percent, on Aug. 31 amid concern that reduced new lending in the second half could damp growth. The index has since pared the slide to 16 percent, and remains up 37 percent from a year ago.

Stimulus steps have “yielded initial results,” arresting a downturn in economic growth, and the government will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and a “proactive” fiscal stance, Wen said. He cautioned that some stimulus measures will “fade” and others will take time to become effective, he said.

Risks for the economy include asset-price inflation, after a record $1.1 trillion of new loans in the first six months. Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min said in an interview in Dalian today that ample liquidity has caused “bubbles” in stocks, commodities and real estate.

“The potential risk is that a lot of liquidity goes to the asset market,” Zhu said. “So you see asset bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate, not only in China, but everywhere.”

Inflation Risks

While China’s consumer prices have fallen for most of this year, Wen said policy makers are on alert for inflation risks.

The government said yesterday that the employment situation remains “grave,” underscoring the need to promote economic growth to create jobs and preserve social stability as the Communist Party prepares to celebrate 60 years of rule on Oct. 1.

While China’s gross domestic product is 70 times bigger than when Deng Xiaoping endorsed free-market policies in 1978, widening income disparities, corruption, pollution and ethnic tensions threaten to foster unrest. Five people died last week in protests in Urumqi, where ethnic Uighurs and Han Chinese are at odds, following unrest in July which killed almost 200 people.

The government’s goals are social harmony and stability and “steady and relatively fast” growth, the premier said today, adding that the government is “taking all possible steps to expand employment.”

Rebalanced Economy

China also faces the challenge of reducing the economy’s dependence on investment and exports for growth and boosting services and domestic consumption. Achieving that goal could reduce global imbalances in spending and saving that some economists blame for helping cause the global financial crisis.

Domestic demand is playing a bigger role in China’s economy, Wen said today.

The economy accelerated in the second quarter, expanding 7.9 percent, and economists forecast faster growth for the rest of the year. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Sept. 2 that the nation’s expansion has aided trading partners and increased the chance of a global rebound.

“Asia is recovering faster from the economic downturn than other regions, in part thanks to China’s gravitational pull,” European Union Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton said in Beijing yesterday.

‘Light of Dawn’

While cautioning of “many uncertainties” for the global economy, Wen said he saw “the light of dawn” and called for the green shoots of recovery to be tended through coordinated moves by world leaders. “Confidence is even more precious” than gold or money, he said.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 emerging and developed nations meeting last week in London vowed to sustain efforts to secure a global recovery. “We will continue to implement decisively our necessary financial-support measures and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies,” they said in a joint statement.

China’s premier also today called for a global fight against protectionism in trade.

A resurgence of China’s property market, rising auto sales and the fastest expansion of manufacturing in 16 months in August have added to signs that the Chinese economy recovery is maintaining momentum.

House Prices

China’s house prices in 70 cities rose 2 percent in August, double the gain in July, after sales and investment climbed, the statistics bureau said today. General Motors Co., the largest overseas automaker in China, more than doubled sales in the nation last month to 152,365 vehicles.

The government is due to announce August figures for trade, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, retail sales and inflation tomorrow.

China’s gross domestic product may increase 9.5 percent in 2010 after an 8.3 percent gain in 2009, the smallest in eight years, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists conducted the week ending Aug. 28.

Investors in recent weeks indicated doubt that the recovery will be sustained as exports slide and the government seeks to rein in overcapacity in industries such as steel and cement.

For Related News and Information: Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO> Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO> For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO> For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO> Credit crunch page: WCC <GO>

Last Updated: September 10, 2009 08:33 EDT


Peg_li      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:01) Posted:



I think double-dip is not possible,  all country government also don't allow the double-dip recession occur. we also maybe underestimate the American economy self-recovered function.don't forget china market, the government is incenting the internal expense, I know there are many infrastructure ongoing which include railway,high speed railway, airport etc. even expanding rural country, china is marching in a way which you can't imagine.china increament will bring asia market recover, hi guys, don't worry too much , just join in the bull market, maximum your profit! otherwise you will regret that you miss a chance which maybe change your life.

Good Post  Bad Post 
11-Sep-2009 00:06 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Nah... nah... nah... dun learn from me, I no guru, no promise win big big.

I m post my charts just to share my views, n exchange pointers, not to educate.

May be freeme should learn from cheongwee since she claims to be very astute n better than TA n win big big but if no win big big, then better dun ask her why u play me to "hollan" as I m sure she will turn around n say "I never take a gun n force u to follow, dyodd n BOSAYOR" 



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted:

freeme...OMG...those FA are all using TA...very common...in a bull makret u see advertisement in papers...calling ppl to buy mini bond..notes lah...these are all TA educated ones..did u ask them how they know...they will say chart all p[oint to the norht , right???so u very happy ...hoot big big right?

why pay so much(loss) to learn fr those FA who are TA educated...learn fr richtan can already lah...sure u win big big...



freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted:

haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally. 

Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap..



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10-Sep-2009 23:49 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Hi freeme,

I m happy to know tat u dun quite agree with my TA, precisely the reason why I post my charts, not to show-off my TA skills (I m still learning as the Chinese sayings "Live till old, learn till old"), not solely seeking for agreement but to hope some knowledgeable TA practitioner can exchange pointers n post their alternate views so I can learn.

As per my disclaimer in every of my post: "I may be right or wrong, so dyodd n BOSAYOR"

Since u disagree with some of my TA charts, why not be as generous as me by sharing your TA views.



freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:40) Posted:

haha I duno how to invest that time. just follow n at the same time i invest myself with FSM with cash. Now my cash holdings with FSM almost fully recover liao n my CPF holdings still in red 30%. Thanks to that FA..

N btw i dun quite agree with richtan quite a few time on his TA liao.. so nothing much to learn from him, but i appreciate his effort to post his view la.. some forumer still benefited from his call..



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted:

freeme...OMG...those FA are all using TA...very common...in a bull makret u see advertisement in papers...calling ppl to buy mini bond..notes lah...these are all TA educated ones..did u ask them how they know...they will say chart all p[oint to the norht , right???so u very happy ...hoot big big right?

why pay so much(loss) to learn fr those FA who are TA educated...learn fr richtan can already lah...sure u win big big...



Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Sep-2009 23:40 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Nah... nah.. I m just an ordinary trader contented with making profits for my pockets without gloating how much I made publicly eg forum,.

I m not a self-proclaimed guru craving for hero-worship in a forum, just so in this forum to share my meagre humble knowledge n exchange views, so no need to gain popularity with me.



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:31) Posted:

kellychang....you still hold penny fr last time?? ..aiyoyo..why..not cut!!!..CUT!!!.

OMG...this is one thing richtan said..i agree.cut early!!!..i am saying the true...not to gain popularity with him....no way..

 



kellychang      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted:



ok....no point arguing... let see what will happen...

of course, if economic turning good, then bonus up...then my last time penny bought can turn green..i also happy...

well. i am just prepare for the worst...

i still believe what goes up will come down...

n i think next year will be the times...that is...

things can always go up, else everybody will die very painful...

if u guys wan to buy...just continue to buy...

n i happy to see you guys earn money also :)


Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Sep-2009 23:33 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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cheongwee,

Try telling Mark Skousen and many other TA practitioners like Alexander Elders, Gregory L. Morris, Steve Nison, John Murphy, those TA experts in "Uncommon Wisdom", "Money and Markets", "RickAckerman.Com", "Oil N' Gold" , "Big Trends.com" and many endless list tat TA is "rubbish thing", lousy.

Read below Mark Skousen logic on why TA is not "rubbish thing" nor lousy:

How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Trading

by Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist



Highlights in this issue:

  • Why you should add a few technical tools to your investment arsenal.
  • How to gauge investor sentiment, "tech-style."
  • These two effective technical indicators point to three investments.



Dear Investment U Reader,

"The overwhelming majority of economic theories, market forecasts, trading strategies, investment systems, hot tips and sure-fire speculations never pan out." ~ Alexander Green

In the August 14 Investment U issue - "Why Most Investment Systems Simply Don't Work" - Alexander Green urged you to stick with the tried-and-true method of fundamental analysis.

He did so using this mantra: "There is only one thing that dictates where a stock will go: earnings."

I agree that earnings are the ultimate determinant of stock prices in the long run. But that's not the only way to gauge where a stock is headed next.

I firmly believe that technical analysis - volume, trading patterns and historical trends - can enhance your returns tremendously and can keep you out of trouble in many cases. Here's why...

How an Earnings-Based Investment Model Crippled Bank of America Buyers

The problem with taking a straight earnings approach to investing is that stock prices aren't determined by current or past earnings, but by future earnings in relation to the current price.

Throughout the past decade, for example, earnings looked great for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). In June 2008, it earned a record $3 billion. You'd have made a bundle of money investing in BAC during the new millennium. Factoring in rising dividends, stock splits and share price appreciation, you'd have tripled your money.

But over the next year, Bank of America's earnings plummeted, and by the end of 2008 it had lost $2.3 billion. The stock followed, collapsing from $50 to under $3 a share, wiping out all of the previous eight years' worth of profits (although the stock has since rebounded to $17 a share).

By time the bank announced a sharp drop in earnings, the price was way down - and investors who bought based on earnings had lost their shirts.

So how does one anticipate an earnings collapse like that?

Use Technical Analysis to Prevent Pain - And Profit

Needless to say, sound economic analysis doesn't hurt. Many economists (including our own Alex Green) predicted a real estate collapse and the subsequent financial trouble.

But using technical and historical trend analysis can also prove extremely helpful in improving your investment results.

For example, many technical analysts have fared extremely well over the past decade (and more), using chart patterns, volume and historical trends. And investors like Bert Dohmen, Jim Dines and Dennis Slothower profited from major trends in commodities, stocks and foreign currency, while avoiding most of the financial crises in 2008, because they used an advanced version of technical analysis.

Here are two other simple tools that have proven very effective...

  • The 200-Day Moving Average: Developed by Doug Fabian and his father Dick, this system has worked well for over 40 years, with only a few whipsaws. It was effective in both keeping investors out of the market during 2008 and getting them back into the market now.
  • The New Highs/New Lows Index: This divides the number of stocks hitting new highs each day by the number of stocks hitting new lows. I've illustrated this on the red line in the chart below and it has worked especially well over the years.

If you used these two technical tools together, you'd have got out the stock market in October 2007 and not re-entered until April this year - without being whipsawed back into the market. Not bad.

Technical Analysis - Using Moving Day Averages & New High/Lows Index

Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/iu082709chart.gif

Gauging Investor Sentiment... Tech-Style

Put simply, technical analysis isn't a crystal ball, but it's a good way to measure the psychology of the market.

When new highs and new lows are at all-time highs, it suggests a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if the indicator is at an all-time low, it signals incredible pessimism.

The new highs/new lows indicator gave a sell signal in October 2007 and a buy signal in April 2009 it's still bullish.

According to the chart, the market is headed higher, so investors should consider several choices...

  • Buy an ETF (exchange-traded fund) such as SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), which tracks the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 index.
  • Buy a five-star, no-load mutual fund such as the Janus Triton Fund (JATTX).
  • Buy individual stocks, such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).

Of course, technical traders use a variety of ratios, indicators and charting patterns to make their buying and selling decisions. Their systems are never perfect because human action is not always predictable, but human behavior and the herd instincts are sometimes quite apparent and experienced traders can make a great deal of money and avoid the worst of bear markets.

Good trading - AEIOU,

Mark Skousen





cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:18) Posted:

yes...your tool theory is ok...only thing is that those rubbish thing as good as guessing? like TA...why some spend $$$ 2k to 3k to learn from those so call TA expert...better you got into a course to improve your job prospect..

unless...it is at least 70% accurate..you are wasting your time and effort..even he himself is cock sure...

rermember after fall to mid 2010...not 1000 yrs fr now...we see...ask TA guy to give you a est time frame and then compare later...not 1000 yrs...just mths away only...

 



thomas_low      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:08) Posted:

Handyman always have a variety of tools, be it shiny day or rainy days, so why not keep them all and use them at the appropriate moment rather than saying manual screw driver is no good we need an electric one or vice versa, hand tired, use the electric one...no FA, use TA, no TA use FA, no TA FA go AA..haha


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10-Sep-2009 23:18 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Smiley  Hahaha, I too sometimes  do regret arguing with gals here, but i do feel sorry for them...esp stubborn gals.

Yes, I agree tat woman are now smarter, but tat does not mean guys are stupidier.



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 21:08) Posted:



sometimes i do regret arguing .with guy here, but i dont feel sorry for them...esp stubborn guy..

i love quarrelling with guy, because they are guy..who care...like they say...faceless...

woman are now snmarter,,...most school principle are woman...great engineer of the society.

Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Sep-2009 22:32 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Hahah... I beg to differ,

As a gentleman, I shall not argue with un-gentlewoman who are stubborn.

Just wondering who is stubborn, I just think it is the pot tat calls the kettle black.

Nah...nah,,,nah... TA is not fantastic, not miracle hocus-pocus crystal ball prediction, is not infallible, so TA cant make sure sti will reach 3000...and dow 10000..  just as I think your views may be right n may also be wrong as we are all mere mortals unless u have that supernatural divine powers.

So since u have divine supernatural powers, u make sure sti 1000 n dow 3800, but alas u may be also right by sheer luck as it is 50/50 chance.



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 22:19) Posted:



OK..OK..OK..kellychang and cheongwee are gentlewoman...we are not going to argue with ungentleman..guy.who are stubborn,

OK..OK..your TA is fantastic,,..but make sure it is pointing at sti 3000...and dow 10000..

Good Post  Bad Post 
10-Sep-2009 22:23 Others   /   Most - S-Chip get ready to get 10-20% Price Hike       Go to Message
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Wen Says China ‘Cannot’ Yet Pull Back on Stimulus (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A



By Bloomberg News

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao signaled he will maintain unprecedented government spending to drive a recovery from the slowest expansion in almost a decade.

“China’s economic rebound is unstable, unbalanced and not yet solid,” Wen said today in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, a city in northeastern China. “We cannot and will not change the direction of our policies when the conditions aren’t appropriate.”

Wen’s remarks reflect a commitment last week from the world’s biggest nations to maintain unprecedented fiscal and monetary measures to secure a recovery from the deepest postwar recession. The comments also may help reassure investors that a slowdown in new loans won’t derail China’s rebound.

“The worst has passed, now it’s about whether China can maintain the strong momentum of a recovery that’s primarily been driven by policy stimulus,” said Wang Qing, chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “Very weak external demand is the key concern.”

Nine months of falling exports, overcapacity in manufacturing and elevated unemployment have restrained the recovery generated by record lending in the first half of the year and a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package.

Stock Market

The Shanghai Composite Index plunged into a bear market, or a decline of at least 20 percent, on Aug. 31 amid concern that reduced new lending in the second half could damp growth. The index has since pared the slide to 16 percent, and remains up 37 percent from a year ago.

Stimulus steps have “yielded initial results,” arresting a downturn in economic growth, and the government will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and a “proactive” fiscal stance, Wen said. He cautioned that some stimulus measures will “fade” and others will take time to become effective, he said.

Risks for the economy include asset-price inflation, after a record $1.1 trillion of new loans in the first six months. Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min said in an interview in Dalian today that ample liquidity has caused “bubbles” in stocks, commodities and real estate.

“The potential risk is that a lot of liquidity goes to the asset market,” Zhu said. “So you see asset bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate, not only in China, but everywhere.”

Inflation Risks

While China’s consumer prices have fallen for most of this year, Wen said policy makers are on alert for inflation risks.

The government said yesterday that the employment situation remains “grave,” underscoring the need to promote economic growth to create jobs and preserve social stability as the Communist Party prepares to celebrate 60 years of rule on Oct. 1.

While China’s gross domestic product is 70 times bigger than when Deng Xiaoping endorsed free-market policies in 1978, widening income disparities, corruption, pollution and ethnic tensions threaten to foster unrest. Five people died last week in protests in Urumqi, where ethnic Uighurs and Han Chinese are at odds, following unrest in July which killed almost 200 people.

The government’s goals are social harmony and stability and “steady and relatively fast” growth, the premier said today, adding that the government is “taking all possible steps to expand employment.”

Rebalanced Economy

China also faces the challenge of reducing the economy’s dependence on investment and exports for growth and boosting services and domestic consumption. Achieving that goal could reduce global imbalances in spending and saving that some economists blame for helping cause the global financial crisis.

Domestic demand is playing a bigger role in China’s economy, Wen said today.

The economy accelerated in the second quarter, expanding 7.9 percent, and economists forecast faster growth for the rest of the year. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Sept. 2 that the nation’s expansion has aided trading partners and increased the chance of a global rebound.

“Asia is recovering faster from the economic downturn than other regions, in part thanks to China’s gravitational pull,” European Union Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton said in Beijing yesterday.

‘Light of Dawn’

While cautioning of “many uncertainties” for the global economy, Wen said he saw “the light of dawn” and called for the green shoots of recovery to be tended through coordinated moves by world leaders. “Confidence is even more precious” than gold or money, he said.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 emerging and developed nations meeting last week in London vowed to sustain efforts to secure a global recovery. “We will continue to implement decisively our necessary financial-support measures and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies,” they said in a joint statement.

China’s premier also today called for a global fight against protectionism in trade.

A resurgence of China’s property market, rising auto sales and the fastest expansion of manufacturing in 16 months in August have added to signs that the Chinese economy recovery is maintaining momentum.

House Prices

China’s house prices in 70 cities rose 2 percent in August, double the gain in July, after sales and investment climbed, the statistics bureau said today. General Motors Co., the largest overseas automaker in China, more than doubled sales in the nation last month to 152,365 vehicles.

The government is due to announce August figures for trade, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, retail sales and inflation tomorrow.

China’s gross domestic product may increase 9.5 percent in 2010 after an 8.3 percent gain in 2009, the smallest in eight years, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists conducted the week ending Aug. 28.

Investors in recent weeks indicated doubt that the recovery will be sustained as exports slide and the government seeks to rein in overcapacity in industries such as steel and cement.

For Related News and Information: Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO> Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO> For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO> For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO> Credit crunch page: WCC <GO> Last Updated: September 10, 2009 08:33 EDT
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10-Sep-2009 22:11 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Since cheongwee said TA is lousy, read below from some well-known analyst on why TA is not lousy:

How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Trading

by Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist



Highlights in this issue:

  • Why you should add a few technical tools to your investment arsenal.
  • How to gauge investor sentiment, "tech-style."
  • These two effective technical indicators point to three investments.



Dear Investment U Reader,

"The overwhelming majority of economic theories, market forecasts, trading strategies, investment systems, hot tips and sure-fire speculations never pan out." ~ Alexander Green

In the August 14 Investment U issue - "Why Most Investment Systems Simply Don't Work" - Alexander Green urged you to stick with the tried-and-true method of fundamental analysis.

He did so using this mantra: "There is only one thing that dictates where a stock will go: earnings."

I agree that earnings are the ultimate determinant of stock prices in the long run. But that's not the only way to gauge where a stock is headed next.

I firmly believe that technical analysis - volume, trading patterns and historical trends - can enhance your returns tremendously and can keep you out of trouble in many cases. Here's why...

How an Earnings-Based Investment Model Crippled Bank of America Buyers

The problem with taking a straight earnings approach to investing is that stock prices aren't determined by current or past earnings, but by future earnings in relation to the current price.

Throughout the past decade, for example, earnings looked great for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). In June 2008, it earned a record $3 billion. You'd have made a bundle of money investing in BAC during the new millennium. Factoring in rising dividends, stock splits and share price appreciation, you'd have tripled your money.

But over the next year, Bank of America's earnings plummeted, and by the end of 2008 it had lost $2.3 billion. The stock followed, collapsing from $50 to under $3 a share, wiping out all of the previous eight years' worth of profits (although the stock has since rebounded to $17 a share).

By time the bank announced a sharp drop in earnings, the price was way down - and investors who bought based on earnings had lost their shirts.

So how does one anticipate an earnings collapse like that?

Use Technical Analysis to Prevent Pain - And Profit

Needless to say, sound economic analysis doesn't hurt. Many economists (including our own Alex Green) predicted a real estate collapse and the subsequent financial trouble.

But using technical and historical trend analysis can also prove extremely helpful in improving your investment results.

For example, many technical analysts have fared extremely well over the past decade (and more), using chart patterns, volume and historical trends. And investors like Bert Dohmen, Jim Dines and Dennis Slothower profited from major trends in commodities, stocks and foreign currency, while avoiding most of the financial crises in 2008, because they used an advanced version of technical analysis.

Here are two other simple tools that have proven very effective...

  • The 200-Day Moving Average: Developed by Doug Fabian and his father Dick, this system has worked well for over 40 years, with only a few whipsaws. It was effective in both keeping investors out of the market during 2008 and getting them back into the market now.
  • The New Highs/New Lows Index: This divides the number of stocks hitting new highs each day by the number of stocks hitting new lows. I've illustrated this on the red line in the chart below and it has worked especially well over the years.

If you used these two technical tools together, you'd have got out the stock market in October 2007 and not re-entered until April this year - without being whipsawed back into the market. Not bad.

Technical Analysis - Using Moving Day Averages & New High/Lows Index

Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/iu082709chart.gif

Gauging Investor Sentiment... Tech-Style

Put simply, technical analysis isn't a crystal ball, but it's a good way to measure the psychology of the market.

When new highs and new lows are at all-time highs, it suggests a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if the indicator is at an all-time low, it signals incredible pessimism.

The new highs/new lows indicator gave a sell signal in October 2007 and a buy signal in April 2009 it's still bullish.

According to the chart, the market is headed higher, so investors should consider several choices...

  • Buy an ETF (exchange-traded fund) such as SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), which tracks the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 index.
  • Buy a five-star, no-load mutual fund such as the Janus Triton Fund (JATTX).
  • Buy individual stocks, such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).

Of course, technical traders use a variety of ratios, indicators and charting patterns to make their buying and selling decisions. Their systems are never perfect because human action is not always predictable, but human behavior and the herd instincts are sometimes quite apparent and experienced traders can make a great deal of money and avoid the worst of bear markets.

Good trading - AEIOU,

Mark Skousen



richtan      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 19:04) Posted:

TA is not infallible but tat does not mean it is lousy, just bcos u dun use TA does not mean it is lousy.

Nah.. u r absolutely wrong, I dun claim to be always right, in all my post I always mentioned 'dyodd n BOSAYOR as I may be right or wrong, I m no saint with divine powers" like u seems to claim to have.

Your mouth is yours, so say wat u want, there is no need for me to prove u wrong tat I did not miss the boat by following TA in March low, wat matters is profits in my bank account, no need to gloat how much I made in a forum, be modest n humble.

Tell tat to all TA practitioner tat TA is rubbish, lucky u r not modern day emperor "Chin Shih Huang Ti", otherwise u will oreder burning all TA books in the country n death penalty to those tat practice TA, n listen to your saintly all mighty divine powers, u must be better than GOD, hahaha...

Everyone has the right to reply to rebut, by rebuting does not mean being sensitive or pride, these are 2 different things.

Tell this "it is mostly man who are sensitive and like to live in their past" to your man, dun paint all man with one stroke of the brush.

So at least Warren Buffet is a man at least, spo man is not useless as u said ..hahaha

 

 



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 18:45) Posted:



Dont listen to those analyst who base their call on TA...they are expert in TA and make ppl lose big time..

if TA are danmned good, they shd be buying stock and not making call....and since richtan said it is infallible..so it is...he agree that TA is lousy..

there u see... he even claim he is neutral....because he want to be always right...but i know he is the real one who is wrong and really miss the boat if he follow TA in March low....

you just listen and watch out for leading indicater that tell the economy..not analyst.and those TA...and dont waste your 2k to 3k to attend those rubbish TA seminar lesson conducted by analyst??u be sorry....better pay for a course to improve your job prospect...

TA are nothing short of guessing game...collect previous traded data and computed into a nice graph...with many waves of multiple color and chart a future trend....so when it is uptrend...they say "oh it is mostly up .unless it cross.or it break...so on and so on...'..and when down...they will say mostly down.....and u know..they are mostly wrong all the time...all this look professional...but are 50/50 thing...

way back in March alot of TA expert was shouting STI 1200...were u there!!!remember..and now they are bullish...wah STI now if not break  2500 will be 2900.by yr end....it is absurb...pure rubbish

how to believe ppl are non judegement abt thing.....when u read, u will definitely form an opinion and arrive at a conclusion...unless u dont know what u are reading about...

no wonder they look to the past to forcast the future.

...and to say he is no sensitive is a lied...then why is he posting to explain his view...look he is fighting for his pride, when he is telling everyone here he is neutral and ego means nothing....to him..

nothing is balance in this universe..try to be...u can never achieve it...only in your dream...man..

it is mostly man who are sensitive and like to live in their past.

..the next WB is a woman,,,

 

.


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10-Sep-2009 19:04 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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TA is not infallible but tat does not mean it is lousy, just bcos u dun use TA does not mean it is lousy.

Nah.. u r absolutely wrong, I dun claim to be always right, in all my post I always mentioned 'dyodd n BOSAYOR as I may be right or wrong, I m no saint with divine powers" like u seems to claim to have.

Your mouth is yours, so say wat u want, there is no need for me to prove u wrong tat I did not miss the boat by following TA in March low, wat matters is profits in my bank account, no need to gloat how much I made in a forum, be modest n humble.

Tell tat to all TA practitioner tat TA is rubbish, lucky u r not modern day emperor "Chin Shih Huang Ti", otherwise u will oreder burning all TA books in the country n death penalty to those tat practice TA, n listen to your saintly all mighty divine powers, u must be better than GOD, hahaha...

Everyone has the right to reply to rebut, by rebuting does not mean being sensitive or pride, these are 2 different things.

Tell this "it is mostly man who are sensitive and like to live in their past" to your man, dun paint all man with one stroke of the brush.

So at least Warren Buffet is a man at least, spo man is not useless as u said ..hahaha

 

 



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 18:45) Posted:



Dont listen to those analyst who base their call on TA...they are expert in TA and make ppl lose big time..

if TA are danmned good, they shd be buying stock and not making call....and since richtan said it is infallible..so it is...he agree that TA is lousy..

there u see... he even claim he is neutral....because he want to be always right...but i know he is the real one who is wrong and really miss the boat if he follow TA in March low....

you just listen and watch out for leading indicater that tell the economy..not analyst.and those TA...and dont waste your 2k to 3k to attend those rubbish TA seminar lesson conducted by analyst??u be sorry....better pay for a course to improve your job prospect...

TA are nothing short of guessing game...collect previous traded data and computed into a nice graph...with many waves of multiple color and chart a future trend....so when it is uptrend...they say "oh it is mostly up .unless it cross.or it break...so on and so on...'..and when down...they will say mostly down.....and u know..they are mostly wrong all the time...all this look professional...but are 50/50 thing...

way back in March alot of TA expert was shouting STI 1200...were u there!!!remember..and now they are bullish...wah STI now if not break  2500 will be 2900.by yr end....it is absurb...pure rubbish

how to believe ppl are non judegement abt thing.....when u read, u will definitely form an opinion and arrive at a conclusion...unless u dont know what u are reading about...

no wonder they look to the past to forcast the future.

...and to say he is no sensitive is a lied...then why is he posting to explain his view...look he is fighting for his pride, when he is telling everyone here he is neutral and ego means nothing....to him..

nothing is balance in this universe..try to be...u can never achieve it...only in your dream...man..

it is mostly man who are sensitive and like to live in their past.

..the next WB is a woman,,,

 

.

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10-Sep-2009 18:45 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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Copied from "Loss making companies flying" post by jeremyow, as the analogy seems applicable to Midas:

jeremyow      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 14:17) Posted:

Have you heard of the story of the hare and the tortoise? The hare runs fast getting many's attention and people support the hare and cheer for it betting that it will emerge the winner because it looks like being confident of doing so. It will be in the limelight for a while with a cheery concensus for it to turn a winner. Little does one knows the tortoise is a slow but steady runner. It is focused and does not lose track of the final finishing point. The tortoise does not matter whether people are supporting it. It just remain focused on completing its task of reaching the finishing point. It has good endurance and focus and is intelligent enough to know also that it is focus and tenacity to keep improving that will determine the winner, not short-term glorious sprint. As such, it just keeps on running never losing its steam or focus. Eventually, the hare tires out after running the first lap at fast pace, and is full of confidence in itself that the tortoise is still far behind and so decides to take a rest. Just when it was taking its confident rest, then catches up the tortoise and eventually the tortoise wins the race.

So, what is the morale of the story? Slow and steady does win the race. Consistency in business profitability is better than short-term glorious sprint. A company that steadily and consistently grows its business (not necessarily at high supernormal pace and in the limelight) will eventually emerge the winner. Such a business will keep growing with consistent earnings growth and eventually investors just have to realise its value by bidding up its share price. Will one sell $1 per share for SPH's shares currently? Will one sell $1 per share for Keppel Corp's shares currently? Will one sell $1 per share for Wilmar International's shares currently? If someone is willing to price a consistent business's shares at such low value, I will gladly buy from him. Stability and consistency in earnings growth is long term winner that cannot be ignored (though sometimes prices get mispriced due to trading sentiments).



ozone2002      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 11:33) Posted:



very very slow moving stock..

Zzzzzzzzz.. not for those who want fast $$

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10-Sep-2009 18:42 Others   /   loss making companies flying?       Go to Message
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Hi jeremyow,

Very good analogy, may I take the liberty to copy n paste your this post in Midas thread as it seems very applicable to Midas too.



jeremyow      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 14:17) Posted:

Have you heard of the story of the hare and the tortoise? The hare runs fast getting many's attention and people support the hare and cheer for it betting that it will emerge the winner because it looks like being confident of doing so. It will be in the limelight for a while with a cheery concensus for it to turn a winner. Little does one knows the tortoise is a slow but steady runner. It is focused and does not lose track of the final finishing point. The tortoise does not matter whether people are supporting it. It just remain focused on completing its task of reaching the finishing point. It has good endurance and focus and is intelligent enough to know also that it is focus and tenacity to keep improving that will determine the winner, not short-term glorious sprint. As such, it just keeps on running never losing its steam or focus. Eventually, the hare tires out after running the first lap at fast pace, and is full of confidence in itself that the tortoise is still far behind and so decides to take a rest. Just when it was taking its confident rest, then catches up the tortoise and eventually the tortoise wins the race.

So, what is the morale of the story? Slow and steady does win the race. Consistency in business profitability is better than short-term glorious sprint. A company that steadily and consistently grows its business (not necessarily at high supernormal pace and in the limelight) will eventually emerge the winner. Such a business will keep growing with consistent earnings growth and eventually investors just have to realise its value by bidding up its share price. Will one sell $1 per share for SPH's shares currently? Will one sell $1 per share for Keppel Corp's shares currently? Will one sell $1 per share for Wilmar International's shares currently? If someone is willing to price a consistent business's shares at such low value, I will gladly buy from him. Stability and consistency in earnings growth is long term winner that cannot be ignored (though sometimes prices get mispriced due to trading sentiments).



ellisee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 13:26) Posted:

I hope to be enlightened here. Why are companies such as SIA and Genting, who have reported losses, making big strides in their prices? On the other hand, share prices of some profitable companies are not really advancing much. Still learning as I cannot understand the logic.


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10-Sep-2009 18:35 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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The shooting star would be invalidated if it is not followed by a lower high n lower low tomoro.

richtan      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 18:33) Posted:

Yes, it is a shooting star, but by definition, confirmation is definitely required by  a lower high n lower low candle the next day.

If it can't break above the double top, it may retrace to the next support at 2522 on 19/8/2009

If it retrace n correct to 2522, it may form a bullish horizontal flag continuation pattern  as most of the emas are still trending up (from 30ema to 200ema, which is the long-term ema).

Jmo, so dyodd n BOSAYOR.



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10-Sep-2009 18:33 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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Yes, it is a shooting star, but by definition, confirmation is definitely required by  a lower high n lower low candle the next day.

If it can't break above the double top, it may retrace to the next support at 2522 on 19/8/2009

If it retrace n correct to 2522, it may form a bullish horizontal flag continuation pattern  as most of the emas are still trending up (from 30ema to 200ema, which is the long-term ema).

Jmo, so dyodd n BOSAYOR.




ragmop15      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 17:39) Posted:

shooting star?

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10-Sep-2009 17:54 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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Nsh... I dun play Mr. Bloom nor Mr. Gloom, I play Mr. Neutral, just share wat I read n non-judemental.

Dun worry, I enjoy every of my meals n sleep peacefully with sweetdreams as I know how to manage my trades n ignore all these noises, I m mechanical, knows when to cut-loss n when to let profits ride with trailing stops, honed by my years of TA trading n abiding by my 3 golden mantras.



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 17:36) Posted:

sorry ...shd be time to be gloom, you play boom, and . time to be boom , you play gloom..

but no need to explain ..u know what i means..

but no need to be scare till cannot eat your dinner...i still see boom for now...but soon it will be gloomy....in fall...in fall...in fall..

 



cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 17:15) Posted:



time to be gloom, you play doom and time to bloom, you play gloom...you are always on the wrong side....you lose big time...

and to balance your view...how balance are you???are u sure u are not tilted to one side...there are not balance state in the universe....go and compare your left and right eye..i believe if u really see, you know one is bigger than the other

and dont imply i miss the train or boat...i dont miss any...when i call this sucker rally, i was buying weeks before..look at my post below from 19 Apr..when i call...and i am in handsome profit..now.

i believe those who do TA and FA miss the boat...just look at the TA , at that time, it was real bad...all point down...all doom...saying mrkt will hit even lower....all analyst call their worse...they use TA ...too much..

leading economic data are more accurate to tell the state ofthe economy...

TA are nothing more then data collected of pass trading activity and computed to assume a future trend...this isn't the same as guessing...50/50???..now your turn to throw at me...dont thk woman can be bully...

most man are hopeless...only want to listen to good things...

and i still say this is a sucker rally...we see...who are right?...man or woman..

 


Master

Posted: 19-Mar-2009 03:35       Contact cheongwee          *  Quote this Post!
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* Alert Admin






Ladies and Gentleman,

I think the mother of all sucker rally is here finally...make your buck to recover your losses previously...dont be too carry away..OK



 

.


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