Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 30-Jun-2008 15:37 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hehe, thanks for the 'promotion', sthinvest. pls keep in mind tho that as individual investors, we're all responsible for our own decisions. no one can 100% predict the market afterall. 
spain won!!!  i had bets on them from the outstart. hehe. 
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| 30-Jun-2008 02:07 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
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it's possible to make money using different strategies on the market. but your stock selection has to fit the strategy as well. and it's all about personality. many have made on fundamentals: warren buffett being one of them, just as many others have made it on technicals. so just because one system works for one man, doesn't mean it's naturally good for another. an investor and a trader are two different things. as well, most people speculate merely on impressions; it's no different from toto or 4D, or soccer bets. So longterm, the advantage will always be to the House. that's why 95% of people will lose long term in the market. they don't even know what they are doing. it's ultimately about two things: money management and personality management. personally, knowing the nature of the singapore market, and how controlled it is, i much prefer technicals. fundamentals come into play overall, because it is written into the charts if you know how to read them. FA is where you can read the strongest support level. what's nice is when FA and TA dovetails. but o/w, really, just by selecting your timeframe and stock well, you can't go far wrong. |
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| 29-Jun-2008 18:25 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
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have to be careful on the concept of fundamentals. base it on reality, not hearsay, analysts' talk, or impression. Factually: yzj NAV = 137.92 RMB, cf to previous year 20.83. (converted = 27.45c vs 4c previously in S$.). Means fair value at 1.5x book to price is 41c. Even if we were to assume same sizzling rate of growth (92% increase in earnings), future NAV would be ~50c; at 1.5x book to price =75c derived as fair full-valued support for yzj for the year. yzj is a growth stock for fast trading, not a fundamental stock for holding. don't mistake one for the other because both require different trading strats, and it can be a deadly mistake in the first parameter of stock selection. |
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| 29-Jun-2008 18:13 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yuppers. keep cool, base your decisions on proper fundamentals and/or technicals, and shut out the white noise of the market. DCA at this point in time allows you to profit if a rebound occurs (since no one can tell when the real rebound will be); whilst if it goes down further, it offers the opportunity to buy good stocks at better valuations. i believe i've named abt 6 stocks already on this thread previously. for those who have been reading and trying to find clues. Pls read the ARs and make your own, informed decisions, based on your own temperament. What's meat for one man may be poison for another. As with always, remember: you fire the gun, you bite the bullet.
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| 29-Jun-2008 16:21 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x. By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario. first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32. upside possible is to 3.2-3.3. Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least). To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember. Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in. Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important. Caveat applies to the above as per usual. |
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| 29-Jun-2008 15:55 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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baseer, it's a saying from victorian times, that man is made of the angel and the animal. think it's something in our culture tho. where we define happiness as the possession of a louis vuitton handbag, or a district 10 address. when really, if you ask me, such happiness is fool's gold. happiness is an intangible quality of being. Of what use is all the money and power in the world, if when you're in trouble, not a single true friend will come to your aid, if your wife/husband doesn't believe in you, and your children hate you? Men are such silly creatures, creatures of appetite and ambition, believing themselves lions and kings of the world, seeking to conquer everything. When what is within is impoverished for want of cultivation. A good mind, a stout heart, guts to see things through, good friends who'd on a word from you, go to the ends of the earth with you. And the ability to laugh at it all when all is said and done. With all these, even with nothing in your pocket and nothing to your name, what does one have to fear? Anything is possible. What's US1mil compared to the above? Money can be lost, but character, never. It's not refinement of wealth we should be seeking most, but refinement of character. we should be careful that in our pursuit of the material, we do not lose sight of the immaterial. weekend elfin thoughts. cheers. :) |
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| 29-Jun-2008 15:21 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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agree actually. the past four trading sessions were net sell downs. short term pics have changed. be very careful always of low volume situations: because all you need is one large BB selling, it induces margin calls and triggers automated trading systems. very, very easy to get caught. that's why i've been saying, go long term or intraday only. mid term is too wonky (1-3 mths); not worth the risk for the thin slicing you get. and that between longterm and intraday, i personally prefer longterm (>3 mth holding, likely 6 at least). i want to be able to sleep at night. haha. note however on the counters that no reports have been issued out on, and where there's steady, quiet buying for two weeks or more. localized stocks shielded from the troubles of the US domestic industries. take care on the commodities; can expect volatility on them and sudden movements both ways. when markets are bad, a return to value is in order. Graham principles apply in stock selection then.
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| 28-Jun-2008 15:17 |
Others
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Forex Junction
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hey, you're in too! not a lot of tools needed, really. once you fiddle around and find a consistent system, it's just using that then. personally, i prefer forex since it's less 'noisy'---esp since our local market now has such low vols, you can either go intraday or longterm only. gone are the days of easy money and constant charts. do agree with techsys that the chart itself is the most impt. the correlation would be px-vol action in stocks. have fun.
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| 27-Jun-2008 22:18 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hee. yea cashiertan. besides, can always opt to play the slot from 11 pm to 4 am. ties in nicely with the euro cup. my spanish hopes are still alive. 
HLJHLJ, yea... been thinking abt conducting courses..... don't wanna do the typical ones in singapore tho, like all those by investment agents/fund houses, where they just show you charts and tell you "if you invest for 15 years consistently, you'll make more", yet they never tell you about right stock selection, price, timeframe, which indicator for which stock, market/indi psychology, etcetc. I mean, it's got to be practical and applicable. not sure if it'd be popular/useful/in demand tho? 
ok, weekend's here. byebye! |
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| 27-Jun-2008 15:12 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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cathylmg, yups, not very far away. and yes, sometimes, swift downs are better, cos that means rebounds will occur. what is bad is when it's a consistent, slow down. because slow slides indicate inexorable decay into bears. it's like throwing a ball downward fast vs slow. stupidfool, no need to envy. the other side is that i'm jobless.  so DNApeh, that's your answer. haha.
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| 27-Jun-2008 14:41 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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it's firehouse sale, limhpp. they're selling because they don't have a choice. investors making redemption calls back home, you have to sell assets to meet the calls. i don't even think they're making from it. it's a no-choice situation for them. Look across the board. The names are regular for the past two weeks; the ramp and sell. Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Merril Lynch. UBS in some cases. Selling the blues and CPOs. subprime losses were concealed, really.... think a lot of the investment banks concealed loss figures by prop traders' success. they may have netted it off. Why else ya think oil would ramp up to 140 in a single night, and gold shoot up by US$31 per troy ounce. Macros. don't just watch individual stock TAs. Macros are important too. (personally, it was less individual stock TA, but macrotrends which stopped me from scalping short trades since april. Quite simply, risk not worth the reward for me.) |
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| 27-Jun-2008 14:35 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yea, i miss those days too man. been boring for me since like, april. that's why i'm in forex now. haha. don't wanna do warrants, too volatile for me. plus, with the indices at low points, can't short since may rebound, can't long either since it's a very limited upside likely to be destroyed by stale bulls at every resistance along the way. (-_-").... ie, you either trade intraday or longterm now. between the two, i personally prefer the latter. the former requires too much watching. besides, i don't wake up til 12 pm anyway. haha. djia strongest support is 11,000. the previous W before the bull run years. cyjjerry, SSE level is 2,000---that's when the chinese govt will step in to support it. we're a long way from there still tho.
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| 27-Jun-2008 14:26 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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yups. TA is abt probability, not 100% accuracy. time frame is very important. one cannot overstress this. where a short scalper may call for sell, may very well be when a long timer calls for initial buy. adapting is very important, definitely. but there is a big difference between adapting to reality, and changing strategy mid-way/mindlessly. which is where initial stock selection is important. why are you buying the stock in the first place? If you can't answer that question, if even first criteria is not met, how can it be a successful trade, no matter which strat one uses? men are creatures of emotion, but as Plato says, rationality is the highest form of the soul. One doesn't get to be a successful investor/trader by being emotional. You get there by being ruthlessly rational. about yourself, the stock, the market. Mistakes. i warned of churning yesterday already, on the STI thread; and for scalpers to lock out all trades. Foreign fund redemptions are in. 30 june = D day for them. Foreigners selling. Local BBs are small fish compared to them. ...which makes us plankton. haha. cheers. :)
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| 26-Jun-2008 23:21 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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no, colorado. don't go midterm. if one doesn't have a risk appetite, all the more one should not play intraday: you only risk errors, because even if your reading of technicals is correct, you're likely not going to be able to control emotions. So one would be risking shooting winners, and holding on to losers. loss can pile up rapidly this way. it takes a certain personality to play intraday. have tried it myself, can actually scalp like 2.5k a week on average. but wasn't worth it to me (note, only to me; others may find it very good) in the end, cos for me, it's really not worth the stress and constant, rabid watching. i don't wish to spend my days watching ticks. rem that the more stressed one gets, the more you're likely to make mistakes too. and in the long run, the question is, is it viable for you, yourself? what's midterm anyway? need to realise that longterm for me means like 6 months. haha. the strat for a longterm investor is different from a shortterm speculator, remember. If you're in for value, longterm, now is actually when you'd start first buy. I emphasise: FIRST buy. ie, spread out your money to invest in parts. 3, 4 parts. whether it goes up or down, because you can never know when the bottom is. DCA allows you to average it out so your price is reasonable. Since, if it's STE you're talking about, this is its lowest since 2006 already. The second strike would be at the next support. Meanwhile, no movement by the investor. If you're a scalper, you'd have whacked in at one shot and ran this counter by latest today (i gave prior call on the STI thread already this afternoon). different strats completely. impt not to get confused. no skills, no risk appetite: sit out and wait for long term. rather move less, get less profit, but less mistakes. i mean, haha, what does it tell ya if i tell you that i'm hunting only for long term? :P shortists may not have it so easy, esp if BBs are churning. when vol is so thin, they may get caught. unless they're on CFD. For longs: i named counters on STI thread alr. can watch out for them, read their ARs, decide for oneself whether they're worthwhile, at what px, and what time frame. :) cheers. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 23:09 |
Chuan Hup
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Chuan Hup
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they've been massively buying back. coy is trading at NAV value now, actually. | ||||
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| 26-Jun-2008 23:07 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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hm. like i posted before: don't get too much caught by dates and targets. that's pre-empting the trend. always keep it fluid. moving targets, not fixed ones, remember. (i know it sounds very dodgy, but i think real traders will know what i mean. you can hold in your head an idea of a price/date, but it should never be a fixed number. very difficult to put this down in words....) if victorf's date is 18th jul, and i'm saying wait til mid jul, isn't that a dovetailing of the prediction of direction already?
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| 26-Jun-2008 22:33 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yups singaporegal. aimless because it's actually just churning amongst the BBs, plus diehard day traders. o/w, most people are out of market. no sense going for minor gains now and risking capital. the only thing 'guaranteed' (as far as the definition allows) are long term, and intraday. wait for oil to hit 150. i give it two months max. haha. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 22:30 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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don't average yet. what's the hurry. wait. you have til mid jul at least. the above is as direct a call as i'll ever make. :P |
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| 26-Jun-2008 19:27 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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already sitting on two year lows. the question, always, is 'what price', and 'how long am i willing to ride it for'? if you're a trader, you wouldn't care two hoots about what i've said below. It'd just be crap because what you're aiming for is instant gain. 'kopi money'. Hence, you'd just use charts/gambling/instinct to ride it. There's really no need to know more; because it'd be white noise. Knowing more is for those who're in it for the long haul. Who believe that wealth takes years, not days to build. the point is this: self identity. Who are you, in the market place. What is your aim. No one way right or wrong, it's simply knowing what's best for you and what gives you the returns you want. For me, it's clear. I've got decades to play. 20, 30 years, if i want to retire early. What's the rush in gambling for small, instant money? Why not learn more, and genuinely know the game instead. I've got years to build wealth, after all. May as well invest in myself first of all. haha. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 19:14 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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yah. i read a lot. technicals help to show the picture. but the depth of the picture is only understood if you understand the human mind. not just others', but your own. Technical tools are just that: tools. If one doesn't understand the tool or why it is used for, its purpose, how can it be accurate? Most of the time, i suspect, when people say technicals are inaccurate, it's because they either used the wrong indicators, or they misinterpreted it. alt, they jumped on impulse: seeing signals where none existed. that's emotion, not technicals. investing is most of all about psychology. even if you are a after all, the best minds from Harvard, Princeton, Yale enter Wall Street. But look where the best minds have gotten us so far. massive bets on subprime gone wrong, credit crunches, liquidity crises. Bear Sterns gone down, UBS, Merril, Citi, BoA on massive losses. Why? They're speculators, not investors. ie, Know the market, know yourself. What you are up against, what you are willing to risk. Speculator, trader, or investor? If trader, what kind? Short term, long term? Nothing wrong either way, as long as you know what you are and why you are playing. So define yourself. that's the most important first step in the market. o/w, herd mentality rules on the market place. understand psychology, and you'll understand the market.
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i use ig markets. the only quibble i have is that because i watch three pairs (have upped the number. hehe), i have to set the indicators each time i log on. so sometimes i use another platform for charting. 
at charts, if you can understand yourself, and understand psychology, sticking to a proper framework of investing rules, really, you can't go far wrong.
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