Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 03-Jul-2008 16:36 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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heya gentledove, i had meant for today's movement. 422 lots sold in 4 trades; think it's MS, because the other two have no reason to sell. Could you direct me to the link of the actual report? I couldn't find it....shares borrowed: one reason could be that MS loaned out the shares as collateral for something else. Alt, some kind of swap deal for another counter. Many reasons possible. |
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| 03-Jul-2008 15:18 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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ooh, i believe MS may have sold some UIC. (they've been selling/churning all their STI assets.) means the situation is that bad for US banks back home. Wonder if WCY or GKW absorbed the lots. even better if MS sells, actually. they then lose position as kingmaker. ie, whoever buys what MS sells will own UIC: GO scenario more possible then. |
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| 03-Jul-2008 14:31 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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nikkei has been in a bear since 14,000 actually. so its movements can be discounted unless it's a large one. UJ pair: don't think it'll go below 10577. The EJ pair looks down. Ranging now tho. watch for signal. If HSI is down: once it closes, you can expect more bloodletting on STI as foreign BBs panic and sell what they can: they only see asia as asia. |
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| 03-Jul-2008 13:56 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yups CWQuah, it's what i had said earlier: watch out for a breakdown in commodities. simple logic though: it can't go up forever. Greater Fool Theory at work. Same thing for oil now. See who gets caught at the highest price. Be careful of weak rallies into bear hug though, where stocks are concerned. Slow buying and holding power. It is inevitable: in a down market there will always be a return to real value. Even chastened BBs who've probably lost more than what they made in the bull of 07. When they finally re-enter, do you think they'd go for shifty pennies, or those which are solidly backed by years of good earnings and dividends? And when the local BBs are abandoning the market, that's when it's time to sit up and start choosing counters, wait for right px to enter. Methodically. No hurry. There's years ahead to build wealth anyway; why be in a rush for petty gains. Mindset is very important: We don't win a couple of wars only to lose the battle. aside, i've been in the market about 10years now. looking at the previous decade, i guess i'm more familiar with bears than bulls. never thought about this before. hehe. SupremeA, not shen mi. but discretion is the better part of valour. The less one says, the better. 
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| 03-Jul-2008 01:21 |
Others
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Forex Junction
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heh. i've avoided this thread precisely because i do not like it when people argue needlessly. 
c'mon guys, regular life is tough enough. let's live and let live. if we can't agree, then the mature thing to do is to agree to disagree. Those in this thread are all experts in their own right: we all know there are more than one ways of trading to achieve financial success. surely then we should set an example for the newbies on how to behave, and what is the kind of character that will lead to success in trading/investing? there's greed, ego, pride. but there's also grace of manner and forebearance. An open mind is what allows best learning, and then, the independence and responsibility to carve your own method. thanks techsys for the informative lessons. the UJ examples were great, esp since that is one of the pairs i focus on. 
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| 03-Jul-2008 00:38 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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singaporegal: about where i get my info from: check your msgs. 
stupidfool: if i were a BB, i sure wouldn't be posting out here and 'exposing' tactics! i sure wish i was one though. lol. livermore. can't say i disagree with the identified themes. if BBs leave the market though, there'd be flat volume and no trading. not a good scene....
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| 02-Jul-2008 16:28 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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foreign BBs are leaving/have left the market: MS, merril, GS, citi have consistently churned and now sold out of STI already. local BBs are mostly out of action: some of them got burnt on some of the speculatives. ie, don't expect recovery in the S-shares anytime soon. those in chinaenergy be careful pls. a boutique fund has been selling it. Was surprised to see its name up actually; had to dig up info on it. never saw it before. |
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| 02-Jul-2008 16:24 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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in case image is not clear; and the likely ranges for the supports/strikes: 1st support is now, 2.96-3. 2nd support is 2.84-2.89 3rd is 2.59-2.67. If there's ever a sudden dip ala the Aug 17 crash, take the opp to accumulate. DCA/longterm strat => enter in parts, so pls do not be gungho and 'whack' for entry at one px and find yourself stuck. be mentally prepared to go long and to dig in deep. |
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| 02-Jul-2008 16:20 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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TA/FA details: pls note that this is one of only two counters i'm interested in, so don't trust that i'm completely unbiased. But as responsible investors: Infer from the facts below, and make up your own minds. Take note too that the strat i'm applying is a longterm strat (at least 3 mths, i'm guessing likely 6 if not more), and DCA at the three support levels need to be applied. If you do not have the guts to go deep and follow it, please don't: i may not be right, neither do i pretend to be so. Also: all levels called as strike are fluid. Exact entry will always be dependent upon the charts when the moment comes. Use your own discretion in judging suitable entry levels. ----------- FA: as per their 3Q AR: Revenue increased 86%, PAT increased 46%. Cashflow increased to 113mil from 103mil. All this on back of a falling market. 2007 options were given at an exercise px of 2.7. 2008 options at exercise of 2.91. GKW, WCY, MS holding this counter. 79-80% in their hands. ie, this stock is cornered. Latest buying 30 june '08 as filed in SGX, GKW bought 506 lots. Their buy px has ranged from 2.65 to 3.45 (07 and 08 data). Lowest px of UIC is 2.59. NAV is 2.44. -------------- TA: 
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| 01-Jul-2008 19:12 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hardly. just because it won't likely hit 1,900, doesn't mean it's a bull run coming. don't misquote me, please.
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| 01-Jul-2008 17:08 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
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not all stocks have sustained rebounds....holding and DCAing needs to be practiced with care. hehe, nickyng must be one happy fella in these market conditions. haha. the difference is that yzj's NAV is 27.45c with negligible dividends, while KE's NAV is 1.55, with about 4% div yield. |
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| 01-Jul-2008 17:05 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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wah ha! finally we close below 1 bil in vol. rare event indeed. nah, i would put 1,900 only as a remote possibility. it means almost all of the STI components have to fall to below 2003 levels, which means they'd be trading below NAV. FA practioners would swoop in to buy if that ever was realised. the disappointment if you ask me: that other asian govts will step in to shore up their markets; but our own govt will do nothing. Except buy in foreign, tanking banks. haha. |
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| 01-Jul-2008 16:05 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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If the Fed had any guts, they'd raise the rates aggressively in a one-two blow, shock down the markets and once and for all clear out all the weak hands and excess bloat in the market place. short term pain so that recovery is faster. if you ask me, that's infinitely preferable to a long, slow decline and dead market ala the 2001-2003 times for the STI. having said all the below tho, i will say one more thing: i don't believe in fundamentals. what i do believe in: psychology. The factors i've named are what affects sentiment. And what BBs will use to control the market. Fear, hope and greed move the market, remember that. Also notable is how BBs themselves will believe their own hype: have you guys noticed that the bearish calls are from analysts belonging to tanking companies, while the calls for recovery are those from surviving/doing well banks? So by knowing fundamentals, you have an edge in the prediction of market psychology: what the BBs will do/will not do. What herd instinct will do. Technicals then show the rest. Note that the SSE is different from most global markets, because most of their movement is from retailers. that is why any fall/rise in the SSE will appear dramatic. It's mainly herd instinct of the small fries. that always exacerbates volatility. |
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| 01-Jul-2008 15:07 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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ya know, bears and bulls are simply technical definitions. focus on the charts themselves. things move in cycles. where there's up there'll be a down. and where there's down, there'll be an up. the question is when. Don't focus so much on macros that you lose the fine details. but don't get so caught up in fine details that you lose the macros. It's a balancing act. Macro economics that affect the STI (for the newbies not yet aware): TA/FA blended: track the global flow of money to have an idea of how markets perform: DJIA is teetering at bear levels; SSE is in freefall. HSI follows in tandem. these are the three markets that affect STI sentiment. Nikkei has less of an effect, as does Sensex. Track the UJ pair because it tells of carry trades---there's been intervention in this pair's actions in the past two weeks (related to the ramp in oil--major BBs are likely, desperately raising funds)--oil and commodity prices, because these are the alternative instruments to which money flows. Keep a weather eye on Gold. Take note that these are at all time highs, and Greater Fool Theory applies. On the US side: they're caught in a catch-22. To fight inflation, the Fed needs to raise interest rates; some say to at least 6%, to match inflation rates. They currently stand at 2%. But raising fed rates will send the DJIA into a shock down, because credit becomes more difficult to come by. The duty of the Fed is to fight inflation, not prop up stock markets fed on the glut of greed and now suffering from indigestion. So much for Ivy League brains: when greed is in the picture, common sense is lost. ie, to save the US economy from a recession, the Fed needs to strengthen the USD by raising rates. This however will induce a bear in the stock markets. Timing is crucial. US elections is in Nov. You cannot risk an unhappy domestic populace. Though their hands may be tied by then. ie, expect Aug-Sept Fed meeting either to keep rates constant, or to raise it by only 25-50 basis points. The first will deepen global inflation but prompt a brief stock rally; the second will dip the market further. So if you were the Fed, which would you do? Wall Street on one side, the Government on the other. ie, it is plausible to expect a sudden crash in commodities within the next few months--oil as weathervane--upon which stocks will rally, then dip in light of the larger picture into a bear hug. That is macro. Now what do individual stock charts say? Different stories. |
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| 01-Jul-2008 14:45 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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uic
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gentledove: only 3 big players in UIC. GKW and associated vehicles (including Telegraph and Summit), WCY, and MS. Altogether they own at least 79% of UIC already. ie, 79% of UIC is in institutional hands. Because of its fragmented shareholder structure, UIC has always been the target--rumored or otherwise--of takeovers. Notable in their stable of holdings: the listed company, Singapore Land. Read its AR and cf it with the AR of UIC. Technicals: Those interested can compare the data from Aug 17 to now; at what prices each of these BB scooped up UIC. You can then estimate the supports and what is the highest price you can buy to. FYI to start interested people off (lesson in TA/FA detective work hehe): Gokongwei's highest buy px for UIC is 3.45. WCY's lowest px is abt 2.6. hehe. caveat applies as usual. :) |
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| 01-Jul-2008 14:37 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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sama sama. and yes, good philosophy. no point risking if the reward's not worth it. look at it another way: a chance to build up a really good portfolio of high yielders for the years to come. plus, getting to sleep til 1 pm or later. and ipunter, with regards to the UJ: it wasn't the rally that was important; it was the chance to enter upon the end of the short up on the long down. always in direction of trend, as you yourself always say. hehe. 10820 back then was a good time to short. scotty: UJ = USD/JPY pair in forex.
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| 30-Jun-2008 23:59 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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well, the UJ pair has inexplicably turned bullish. haha. just have a feeling that the big banks are manipulating stocks, forex and commodities majorly to scalp as much profit as possible before they release results. Anyone remembers, about 3 weeks back, ALL of them said "The worst is behind us"??? CWQuah, good call on the levels. :) personally wouldn't wanna play though. cos the trouble is that it's rotational play, and you won't know which stock the BBs are targetting til the day itself. so profits likely very thin for the range. it's actually a very tight range to play. rather sit out and wait to collect slowly. UIC and KE having consistent share buybacks now. hehe. lets see if prices will dip below their support. if yes, it's a strike on dip philo. caveat applies; not vested in the named counters now. |
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| 30-Jun-2008 16:53 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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tactical analysis on soccer teams. ooh yea. rather than tactical analysis, it's statistical analysis. i had made all my bets at the outstart by buying the likely winners and the top of table for two groups. hedged it in such a way that 9 out of 13 outcomes were positive. 
we can bet on F1 teams? *hhmmmmmm*
yuppers. think long term not short term (even if you're a scalper). wealth is built in years, not days. what's the point of getting 100% return in one year, but losing 200% in the next two years? really, it's more *sense* to just go for 15-20% yoy. remember always that trends can rarely be beaten, and those who do so are statistical anomalies. The best performing fund in history for a 20 year period is the Magellan fund. their returns? 25.4% pa. So let's not be under any delusions of 100-200% returns consistently for decades. If you make 100% in a good year, time to lock it in as well as shut out the ego that tells ya you're wonderful/fabulous/incredible. nothing like pride to kill one's sharpness in the marketplace. ooh. looks like we'll hit 150 before my 2 mths guess. hehe. wheeee.......Those twitching, think positive: "The best time to buy is when there's blood on the streets". cheers. |
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| 30-Jun-2008 16:46 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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yeps ozone. people will always be suspicious of what they do not understand. as with zhuge liang, i've been advocating this counter since goodness knows when last year. (you can track my posts on this thread; i seem to have a lot of them here. hahaa). those who are looking for a hedge ignore this commodity at their own peril. those interested to jump in need to know however that gold does not move like a fast trading stock. for best returns, it's a sit-and-hold type. consistent scalping for mid term or just hold for longterm. whatever you do, don't just 'whack' this counter. MS and citibank are your regular BBs controlling this counter. and they control it very tightly. caveat applies as usual. |
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| 30-Jun-2008 15:39 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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agree with you, fairygal, on the need for solitude to define happiness for oneself. the rest of it, is like in the stock market. white noise. ignore.
one's centre of self should always be within, so that no matter how much the external world shakes and moves, you are never decentralised nor lost. |
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