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Making losses is part n parcel of a trader's lives, thus why I always abide by my 3 golden mantras:
(1) Remember, "The trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend", we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly
(2) "Plan your trade n trade your plan", which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade
(3) "Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops", we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
keepnosecrets ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 15:58) Posted:
Many counters I am having are still losing. Recentl purchases also lose money, honestly.
Livermore ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 15:45) Posted:
| Don't be surprised that even some traders still lose money in bull market |
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If he lose big during 07 sell down, then, to me he is not a TA expert as he trades emotionally, not mechanically, without setting stops n abiding by it, remember my 3 golden mantras, it is always ingrained in me.
kellychang ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:00) Posted:
so u are a TA expert? well, i know someone a TA expert, he also lose big during 07 sell down... still prefer fishing at the bottom and hold it a period of times then sell... now, market is very crazy...well, i still think that market need to be slow down or correction for its better next bull run... so i am not going to chase any stock now...
keepnosecrets ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 15:58) Posted:
| Many counters I am having are still losing. Recentl purchases also lose money, honestly |
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Nah... nah... nah... I m not the real experts, I m just an average TA trader sharing my chart analysis in the hope tat some TA expert can exchange pointers n point out any blindspots tat I missed.
keepnosecrets ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:07) Posted:
Mr. Rich Tan is the real expert in TA.
keepnosecrets ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:05) Posted:
| Sorry Kel, I no expert, but just learning to interprete the charts. But charts can be manupulated, so I don't put 100 percent on them. Most of the counters I picked not from charts are making money, but I am not saying charts are no good. Sometimes they do help in confirming a decision. Like recently a friend say buy this, but when I saw the chart, I did not buy and it was going down. Lucky for me, right? |
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Tats why I have a 2 days rule to avoid so-called "head fakes", remember "one swallow does not make a summer", it must at the minimum, stay 2 days above the breakout or at worse test the breakout line as a support n the breakout must be support by increased vol n finally set a stop-loss point in case despite all these precautions, still kena palyed out as TA is not infallible as I always mentioned just as in live, nothing is infallible.
iPunter ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 20:58) Posted:
The bull trap in Genting last week is a perfect example of chart 'manipulation'... This is because all fund managers' eyes are glued to the chart... It was rather deceptive, because just before the trading halt, the price did break out of the resistance thus creating many maximum bulls... Then these maximum bullish bulls were disappointed when they lost heavily on resumption of trading... 
keepnosecrets ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:07) Posted:
| Mr. Rich Tan is the real expert in TA |
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Unless u r GOD or possess supernatural divine powers, everything else tat we mere mortals profess is 50/50 even with watever super-leading indicators tat u have (Wat man proposes, GOD disposes).
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
TA are base on past data...when Feb ,Mar..all TA was painting a bliss pic ..it is not the chart that was shown...when Mar..u dont see the wave of April onward...it is misleading, as good as guessing..
It is like driving a car, but u keep looking backward and said to yourself ..well so far the road is straight..in front shd be stright also...till it come a bend...then it is different story again...
when u read an analyst explain his TA...what you always see and hear????...."IF"...the wor d if is very common...if it beeak, 1040 then it is very bullish..."if" it did not .,..then...all the "if" was it is guessing right???
If u drive a car and keep looking backward,,you are bound to get into trouble...
for real indicator..u must observe the leading indicator...chart is 50?50 like rich tan said...he agree on this...if i am not wrong...so TA are 50/50...why waste time and money learning thing that are 50/50...isn.t it like gambling...you say now...your turn... |
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Video commentary (Chart Analysis) on DOW, US$ n Gold:
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Gold Breakout??
by Larry Edelson
http://www.gliq.com/cgi-bin/click?weiss_uwd+16702-3+UWD167SPLIT2
richtan ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:53) Posted:
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Trade What You See, Not What You Hear (from all those MFT)
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
TA are base on past data...when Feb ,Mar..all TA was painting a bliss pic ..it is not the chart that was shown...when Mar..u dont see the wave of April onward...it is misleading, as good as guessing..
It is like driving a car, but u keep looking backward and said to yourself ..well so far the road is straight..in front shd be stright also...till it come a bend...then it is different story again...
when u read an analyst explain his TA...what you always see and hear????...."IF"...the wor d if is very common...if it beeak, 1040 then it is very bullish..."if" it did not .,..then...all the "if" was it is guessing right???
If u drive a car and keep looking backward,,you are bound to get into trouble...
for real indicator..u must observe the leading indicator...chart is 50?50 like rich tan said...he agree on this...if i am not wrong...so TA are 50/50...why waste time and money learning thing that are 50/50...isn.t it like gambling...you say now...your turn... |
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Cheongwee,
Debates n our differences in opinions aside (lets co-exist n not belittle each other while glorifying own beliefs at the expense of others, having multi-beliefs adds more variety to this forum), I wish u speedy recovery from your ops.
AK_Francis ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:06) Posted:
Oh no, dear CW, sorry to hear that u need to face 2nd rd of surgical knifes n scissors. Ak utmost blessing to u to get well after ds last ops. Best regards.
cheongwee ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 00:45) Posted:
kellychang...you know this word "irrational exuberence"...a famous word by Al;an Greenspan..
we dont know what is in front...but some time this market rally can go on and on and on...
i shd be worry...i am going for an operation next January...TA for cheongfwee is point down to hell...hahahah...i am joking but really. i am going for an opreration....that is my second one..at Mt E.
wish me luck... |
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* Alert Admin |
Try telling Mark Skousen and many other TA practitioners like Alexander Elders, Gregory L. Morris, Steve Nison, John Murphy, those TA experts in "Uncommon Wisdom", "Money and Markets", "RickAckerman.Com", "Oil N' Gold" , "Big Trends.com", 'incestment U" and many endless list tat TA is "rubbish thing", lousy.
Read below Mark Skousen logic on why TA is not "rubbish thing" nor lousy:
How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Trading
by Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist
Highlights in this issue:
- Why you should add a few technical tools to your investment arsenal.
- How to gauge investor sentiment, "tech-style."
- These two effective technical indicators point to three investments.
Dear Investment U Reader,
"The overwhelming majority of economic theories, market forecasts, trading strategies, investment systems, hot tips and sure-fire speculations never pan out." ~ Alexander Green
In the August 14 Investment U issue - "Why Most Investment Systems Simply Don't Work" - Alexander Green urged you to stick with the tried-and-true method of fundamental analysis.
He did so using this mantra: "There is only one thing that dictates where a stock will go: earnings."
I agree that earnings are the ultimate determinant of stock prices in the long run. But that's not the only way to gauge where a stock is headed next.
I firmly believe that technical analysis - volume, trading patterns and historical trends - can enhance your returns tremendously and can keep you out of trouble in many cases. Here's why...
How an Earnings-Based Investment Model Crippled Bank of America Buyers
The problem with taking a straight earnings approach to investing is that stock prices aren't determined by current or past earnings, but by future earnings in relation to the current price.
Throughout the past decade, for example, earnings looked great for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). In June 2008, it earned a record $3 billion. You'd have made a bundle of money investing in BAC during the new millennium. Factoring in rising dividends, stock splits and share price appreciation, you'd have tripled your money.
But over the next year, Bank of America's earnings plummeted, and by the end of 2008 it had lost $2.3 billion. The stock followed, collapsing from $50 to under $3 a share, wiping out all of the previous eight years' worth of profits (although the stock has since rebounded to $17 a share).
By time the bank announced a sharp drop in earnings, the price was way down - and investors who bought based on earnings had lost their shirts.
So how does one anticipate an earnings collapse like that?
Use Technical Analysis to Prevent Pain - And Profit
Needless to say, sound economic analysis doesn't hurt. Many economists (including our own Alex Green) predicted a real estate collapse and the subsequent financial trouble.
But using technical and historical trend analysis can also prove extremely helpful in improving your investment results.
For example, many technical analysts have fared extremely well over the past decade (and more), using chart patterns, volume and historical trends. And investors like Bert Dohmen, Jim Dines and Dennis Slothower profited from major trends in commodities, stocks and foreign currency, while avoiding most of the financial crises in 2008, because they used an advanced version of technical analysis.
Here are two other simple tools that have proven very effective...
- The 200-Day Moving Average: Developed by Doug Fabian and his father Dick, this system has worked well for over 40 years, with only a few whipsaws. It was effective in both keeping investors out of the market during 2008 and getting them back into the market now.
- The New Highs/New Lows Index: This divides the number of stocks hitting new highs each day by the number of stocks hitting new lows. I've illustrated this on the red line in the chart below and it has worked especially well over the years.
If you used these two technical tools together, you'd have got out the stock market in October 2007 and not re-entered until April this year - without being whipsawed back into the market. Not bad.
Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/iu082709chart.gif
Gauging Investor Sentiment... Tech-Style
Put simply, technical analysis isn't a crystal ball, but it's a good way to measure the psychology of the market.
When new highs and new lows are at all-time highs, it suggests a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if the indicator is at an all-time low, it signals incredible pessimism.
The new highs/new lows indicator gave a sell signal in October 2007 and a buy signal in April 2009 it's still bullish.
According to the chart, the market is headed higher, so investors should consider several choices...
- Buy an ETF (exchange-traded fund) such as SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), which tracks the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 index.
- Buy a five-star, no-load mutual fund such as the Janus Triton Fund (JATTX).
- Buy individual stocks, such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).
Of course, technical traders use a variety of ratios, indicators and charting patterns to make their buying and selling decisions. Their systems are never perfect because human action is not always predictable, but human behavior and the herd instincts are sometimes quite apparent and experienced traders can make a great deal of money and avoid the worst of bear markets.
Good trading - AEIOU,
Mark Skousen
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cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
TA are base on past data...when Feb ,Mar..all TA was painting a bliss pic ..it is not the chart that was shown...when Mar..u dont see the wave of April onward...it is misleading, as good as guessing..
It is like driving a car, but u keep looking backward and said to yourself ..well so far the road is straight..in front shd be stright also...till it come a bend...then it is different story again...
when u read an analyst explain his TA...what you always see and hear????...."IF"...the wor d if is very common...if it beeak, 1040 then it is very bullish..."if" it did not .,..then...all the "if" was it is guessing right???
If u drive a car and keep looking backward,,you are bound to get into trouble...
for real indicator..u must observe the leading indicator...chart is 50?50 like rich tan said...he agree on this...if i am not wrong...so TA are 50/50...why waste time and money learning thing that are 50/50...isn.t it like gambling...you say now...your turn... |
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Wat makes u said all tat is bcos of your lack of in depth TA knowledge n making mockery of TA, so I m not the least bothered to convince u tat TA does have such thing as leading indicators, just tat u are unaware n making your uninformed comments.
So I seek your kind co-operation to stop belittle others beliefs just in your attempts to convert others to your beliefs, to each his own beliefs, show some respect to others beliefs.
richtan ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:22) Posted:
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Well, no point debating, u have your beliefs as well as TA practitioner have their beliefs, so it is best to live in harmony just as our PM said about religious harmony, so dun criticise n belittle others n debase others but glorify your own beliefs.
If u dun believe in TA, jsut ignore n dun read but dun criticise it as there are others whom believe in TA will want to read.
As Confucious said: "Dun do onto others wat u dun want others to do unto u"
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
TA are base on past data...when Feb ,Mar..all TA was painting a bliss pic ..it is not the chart that was shown...when Mar..u dont see the wave of April onward...it is misleading, as good as guessing..
It is like driving a car, but u keep looking backward and said to yourself ..well so far the road is straight..in front shd be stright also...till it come a bend...then it is different story again...
when u read an analyst explain his TA...what you always see and hear????...."IF"...the wor d if is very common...if it beeak, 1040 then it is very bullish..."if" it did not .,..then...all the "if" was it is guessing right???
If u drive a car and keep looking backward,,you are bound to get into trouble...
for real indicator..u must observe the leading indicator...chart is 50?50 like rich tan said...he agree on this...if i am not wrong...so TA are 50/50...why waste time and money learning thing that are 50/50...isn.t it like gambling...you say now...your turn... |
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Well, no point debating, u have your beliefs as well as TA practitioner have their beliefs, so it is best to live in harmony just as our PM said about religious harmony, so dun criticise n belittle others n debase others but glorify your own beliefs.
If u dun believe in TA, jsut ignore n dun read but dun criticise it as there are others whom believe in TA will want to read.
As Confucious said: "Dun do onto others wat u dun want others to do unto u"
cheongwee ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:55) Posted:
TA are base on past data...when Feb ,Mar..all TA was painting a bliss pic ..it is not the chart that was shown...when Mar..u dont see the wave of April onward...it is misleading, as good as guessing..
It is like driving a car, but u keep looking backward and said to yourself ..well so far the road is straight..in front shd be stright also...till it come a bend...then it is different story again...
when u read an analyst explain his TA...what you always see and hear????...."IF"...the wor d if is very common...if it beeak, 1040 then it is very bullish..."if" it did not .,..then...all the "if" was it is guessing right???
If u drive a car and keep looking backward,,you are bound to get into trouble...
for real indicator..u must observe the leading indicator...chart is 50?50 like rich tan said...he agree on this...if i am not wrong...so TA are 50/50...why waste time and money learning thing that are 50/50...isn.t it like gambling...you say now...your turn... |
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Trade What You See, Not What You Hear
ozone2002 ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 15:02) Posted:
BIG BIG BUBBLE FORMING..
erictkw ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 12:57) Posted:
China assures world on stimulus efforts
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08:09, September 11, 2009
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China will not end its stimulus initiatives at a time when the global economy is starting to see "slow and zigzag" recovery from its free fall, Premier Wen Jiabao assured global business leaders Thursday.
Instead, he said the country will "enrich its stimulus package" to better link it to the creation of new engines of China''s growth.
"We cannot and will not change the direction of our policies at an inappropriate time," Wen said at the opening of the World Economic Forum in Dalian, Liaoning province.
"The foundations of China''s economic recovery are not stable, not solidified and unbalanced and the global economic outlook is uncertain," he said.
"The top priority of our work is to maintain stable and quick economic growth, so we will unswervingly stick to a relatively loose monetary policy and an active fiscal policy," said Wen.
Economists and analysts saw Wen''s rejection of an early "stimulus exit" as a firm international commitment to shore up the global economy and they said the subject is sure to be further debated at the upcoming G20 leaders summit in Pittsburgh, Pa., late this month.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said yesterday in Beijing that China hopes the forum will help tackle the world economic downturn and send a "stronger signal" for global recovery.
"It''s too early to discuss the stimulus exit timetable because the global economy is still filled with uncertainties," Bi Jiyao, a senior economist with the National Development and Reform Commission, told China Daily.
Bi said developed economies may consider withdrawing their fiscal stimulus measures around the middle of next year, if the world economy steadily picks up.
China's Premier Wen Jiabao (L) waves next to World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab after his speech at the opening ceremony of the WEF meeting, in China's port city Dalian September 10, 2009. (chinadaily.com.cn/Agencies)
"For China, I think we will continue with strong fiscal spending but we should readjust where the taxpayers' money is going," said Bi.
Wen said China would insist on policy consistency to ensure high-speed economic growth.
"We should fully implement and continuously improve policies and discover and resolve new problems in a timely manner," said Wen. He warned about the risk of inflation even though the country was still experiencing deflation.
"We should be alert and prevent all potential risks, including inflation," he said.
China Daily learned yesterday from reliable sources that industrial growth last month was believed to be up by between 8.0 and 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent in July.
The financial crisis led to the figure plunging to 3.8 percent in February, compared to its average of 15 percent before the financial turmoil.
China began the year with many economists predicting that it would fail to hit its target of 8 percent growth for the year, which is crucial if China is to generate enough jobs for its millions of migrant workers.
Hitting 8 percent is now within reach after China's economy expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter, according to the central bank.
Analysts have applauded the effectiveness of China's two-year, 4-trillion-yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package, but some have fretted that, in emphasizing investment, China has slowed the much-needed transition to a consumption-driven economy.
Full Coverage:
Davos at Dalian
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U r most welcome.
Remember, master TA n u r the master of your trade.
Read this and always remember:
Trade What You See, Not What You Hear (ie ignore all those MFT n noises)
Salute ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 23:31) Posted:
thank you richtan, have just read your reply
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 02:05) Posted:
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Hi jazzoff,
Many thanks for your kind help n effort, so sorry I was too pre-occupied in other threads.
Btw, all these can be found th the thread "Learning TA" under "General", "Trading Techniques" tat I specially created with newbies in mind, hopefully they benefit from it. |
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Thus why I always like to read this article to remind myself:
Trade What You See, Not What You Hear (from all those MFT)
smartrader ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:37) Posted:
| up again...no friday or sep effect |
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At this point in time, there is no bearish divergence in the chart to indicate any possibility tat STI will re-visit the Mar low.
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:34) Posted:
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Hi kelly,
As a TA trader, I m neither bullish nor bearish, I trade based on my interpretation of the chart trends daily, I dun MFT.
Read "Trade What You See, Not What You Hear" (or for tat matter, wat others try to MFT)
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:26) Posted:
so u all still very bullish on what the market going to be?? very bullish and will go to 3000? and hit new high soon?? |
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Hi kelly,
As a TA trader, I m neither bullish nor bearish, I trade based on my interpretation of the chart trends daily, I dun MFT.
Read "Trade What You See, Not What You Hear" (or for tat matter, wat others try to MFT)
kellychang ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:26) Posted:
so u all still very bullish on what the market going to be?? very bullish and will go to 3000? and hit new high soon??
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:21) Posted:
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Hi fartist,
U r most welcome, but remember I may also be wrong as the mkt conditions are fluid n dynamic n may not move as per my analysis, so still must dyodd n BOSAYOR.
I also look forward to your chart posting.
fartist ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:23) Posted:
Thanks for the posting richtan! I like it as its very illustrative, thank you once again.
richtan ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 21:50) Posted:
Below is my long term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your
next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.
If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.
This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
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I fully agree with u.
Livermore ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 22:13) Posted:
One should not rely on "sifu" but rely on oneself. Of course everyone is entitled to his own opinion. For me, it is quite unlikely market will revisit its March low.
learningtheropes ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 11:13) Posted:
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who is ur shifu? haha..ya i also waiting to go into blues..thanx for your help..it'll be gd to have some reference pt=)
anyway for pple who intends to invest using cpf, advise is to stick to using the regular mthly investment method..tat way u will sure be able to catch the bottom of the mkt. FAs always advocate dolllar cost averaging, but they dun practise what they learn and are highly emotional in investing as well..tats why my FA tell me to invest all my cpf in a lump sum when gahmen set the 20,000 cap..if I had stick to dollar cost averaging, I will be able to meet the cap when mkt is at the bottom and nibbled some at the btm..
they always say timing not impt..and my auntie go and buy during dec 2007, and lost like 50% on her investment (my one still not that bad)..loss of 50% for unit trust is really alot..and this is retirement money somemore..seriously dun think how she can recover beyond the opportunity cost lost from keeping the money in cpf..TIMING IS IMPORTANT for lump sum invest, but of coz mthly regular investment still safest.. |
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It is not a bearish engulfing as the black body does not completely engulf the white body, note tat today's close is slightly higer than yesterday's open.
Rules of Recognition:
1. The black body must completely engulf the white body.
2. The smalll white body occurs with not much vol (yesterday high vol)
3. The next day's black candle must be sustained by high sell-off vol (today's vol lower)
4. A confirmation is suggested, ie next day followed by a lower high n lower low.
ragmop15 ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 18:14) Posted:
Hi Richtan, since we did not make a lower low today, the shooting star is invalidated? Can we consider todays move as a bearish engulfing pattern?
richtan ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 18:35) Posted:
| The shooting star would be invalidated if it is not followed by a lower high n lower low tomoro |
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Below is my long term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your
next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.
If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing.
This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
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