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09-Jul-2008 12:12

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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careful, seeing some distribution/profit taking in the blues. wouldn't expect this mini rally to last more than a week....yea. collect your 10c and run. :)

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08-Jul-2008 22:48

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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hehe, yea. i love those emoticons too. nothing like a bit of colour to brighten life up. hehe.

lookcc, relax lah... temporary surge in DJIA because of Bernanke's speech. Usual spin by the Fed. But really, do you think it's going to hold up against the back of home sales dipping 4.7% vs expected 2.8% fall. ML may have more writedowns later.

Alcoa reports later in afternoon (EST time). expected to post EPS drop of 66c vs previous 81c. If the real results are worser than expected, DJIA's likely go down.

Oil px is down cos of G8 summit, usual politician talk about strengthening the USD blah blah blah. Correlation, UJ pair has been rising. Would place a cap at 10775 though. Also, we gotta put things in perspective: oil drops like $5 in one week, but jumps $5 in one session. it's hardly a 'tanking'. I'd view it more as a temporary redrawing for greater momentum upward.

stay coo', people! Cool

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08-Jul-2008 17:50

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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yea, it dropped that much that's why caught my attention too. hehe.

and in case anyone is wondering, no, i'm not vested, despite my frequent postings here.

DJIA likely to break its 11,100 level. bleah.

HLJHLJ, whatever you do, don't enter your final salvo yet pls.

meanwhile, it's back to hamster position and Snooze

while the lights are out over the market.

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08-Jul-2008 17:47

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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bleah, just saw the DJIA chart in detail.

concerted break below 11,100 means a large drop in the works. 11,300 is the pivot for these couple of week. need to break 11,400 on sustained vol for uptrend to resume.

very close to the lower level. bleah.

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08-Jul-2008 17:29

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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MACD and pure px/vol charting to call the levels. long term techs. can't remember if i posted up its charts or if i posted for UIC.... Huh?

really, this counter isn't for short-term scalping. not volatile enough. if you look at its charts, it's about 1 rebound per month only. That's not good enough for fast action.

in fact its current movement the past two weeks were atypical. which gives the bigger picture that the foreign funds are really desperate to raise cash, such that they're selling off a stalwart, which is also the signal to stay out of the broad market. this was like, 2 weeks ago.

and that's also why i've been a Snooze

elf. heck, i don't even bother to wake up til 1 pm. ROFL

cheers.

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08-Jul-2008 17:24

Biosensors / Is Biosensors a good buy?

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whether it's controlled or cornered will be reflected in the charts.

cfd shorting is ok for this baby, can ride out the rebound if any. day shortists are the ones who have to be careful.

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08-Jul-2008 17:20

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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hair problem. Laughing on Floor

*chokes on giggles, apologises*

what's PVT and CLV? Huh?

ooh, CWQuah, spot on about its closing. Wink

nopers on candlesticks. that doesn't go for this baby. and to the popcorn chewers, please, i'm calling for longterm. So don't go in for a couple of days and complain that it's dropping. Seeing Stars

of course it's dropping! look at the broad market! besides, that's exactly why you need three strikes.

over and out! tonight's gonna be fun. ooh. hehe.

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08-Jul-2008 16:25

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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i'm zzz until the market drops to the level i want, in which case, i'd turn from Snooze

in a flash.

haha.

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08-Jul-2008 16:22

Biosensors / Is Biosensors a good buy?

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as per my previous post on this thread. "fall is potentially limitless from this point. downtrend has not ended yet; would not say it is even midway through."

really, this current fall should not come as a surprise to anyone. long written in the charts already.

if anyone's looking to short though, need to take care: MFI at low.

the only qn that is left is the % of players in this counter on margin. beyond a certain critical point, margin call sets in. that is when you'll see a sudden sharp dip. Do the estimates yourselves. hehe.

not vested. caveat as usual applies. pls note, all opinions above are strictly from a technical basis.

elfinchilde ( Date: 05-Jul-2008 17:35) Posted:

concur with cashiertan that this is more of a trading counter. note that previous support of biosensors was 67c; has broken it, so the fall is potentially limitless from this pt. downtrend has not ended yet; i would not say it is even midway through.

the bigger players appear to have gotten out at end May at ~74-76.5c.

as trader88 (?) said though, it all depends on when they'll return to this counter, if they should. if they do tho, your upside is likely limited to 50% of whatever the lowest px is (ie, if it's 50c lowest, they'll ramp it to 75c). Consistent patterns from the chart.

If they abandon it tho, you can expect to sit in slow recovery for the next bull in years to come, ala the other penny stocks. need to realise that current market sentiment is extremely bad, even with good news in, how many counters will rally? so really, what's happening to biosensors is normal, not extraordinary: bengster shouldn't be blamed just because he is providing information.

Note: above views are strictly from a technical perspective. caveat applies. not vested.

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08-Jul-2008 15:58

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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what techs are you using, redash.

quite clear which direction it's going, if you cut out the white noise. the only qn is the level of the rebound.

and i don't quite think you can call a daily range movement a 'pummeling'. (-_-").....you appear to be talking short term scalps, in which case, this counter wouldn't be part of your selection. there are plenty of more volatile and profitable counters for scalps.

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08-Jul-2008 15:54

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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there's no pain if you're not in, ozone.

wait lah....what's the hurry.... zzz markets....not yet time to buy....

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08-Jul-2008 15:52

Biosensors / Is Biosensors a good buy?

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yea ipunter, well said. a stock and a company are different, though related entities. :)

haha, ok jackjames, since you just got married, take it as my elfin gift to you: i've already told you 49c is too high to buy. one more "gift": you lose nothing by waiting two weeks more. (if you're still interested in this counter, that is.)

healthway, will leave for other experts to comment. elfin gifts can't be given too freely or easily. haha. cheers.

caveat applies as usual.

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08-Jul-2008 15:47

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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yups 178. when i read reports, it's less of the target px i focus on, or their calculations, but what the coy has in store, what's the headwinds it faces etcetc. It gives you a better sense of the business, which then affords confidence in your investment.

The trouble though, is that most retailers don't bother to read the fine print: they only look for the target px part, which is where it gets dangerous.

yea redash. there's one controversy over CFD: which is that the houses which own the accounts know what's going on. they know the amt of shorts/longs for each particular counter. and more importantly, the prices at which forced closing will take place. hence they can take contrarian positions to force out the small hands. that's why i personally do not like CFDs here, and why i don't go short in the s'pore market: for small punts, ok, but as serious investment for longterm, no go: you are too easily tracked. Long term (for the decades that one is in the market), it only means you're likely to lose. The advantage, always, is to the House.

Besides, the idea of a technical scalp is to move swiftly and stealthily. why be leaving footprints and fingerprints all over, and getting booted out.

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08-Jul-2008 15:40

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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elf does not have CFD. thanks for the tip. :)

word of caution for those thinking market is cheap now and itching to buy: whatever your counter is, wait for tomorrow at least. DJIA may drop a further three digit tonight. overhang of bad news from last week.

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08-Jul-2008 15:19

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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edit:

yea, watch what all the 'gurus' say. everyone always remembers only their last words, so they look accurate. but really, because they're so influential, a word from them moves the markets. How many people actually remember that they shift their calls like nobody's business?

ie, when all the gurus are saying sell, that is when you look to buy (look, not immediately buy). when they all say "the worst is over" (like in march this year), that is when you look to ride it and then sell.

Remember that they are vested; they are the BBs. When they want to sell, someone needs to buy. When they want to buy, someone needs to sell. So why do retailers put so much faith in these 'experts'? If we were to actually track all the analyst reports, and compare their 12 mth target vs the actual px one year later, how many of them hit the mark?

Or let's put it another way. Yes, they're educated, yes they hold the titles, but it's like a thief going "trust me, s'pore is safe, no need to lock your doors."

Would you trust that person?

It's to do with one thing: Vested interests. always check your source, never blindly trust it.

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08-Jul-2008 15:09

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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DCA = dollar cost averaging. where you put your money in slowly, via parts, rather than one 'whack' at one shot. really, wouldn't advise 'whacking' at this point in time.

relax lah......

eh.....no signal for 2nd salvo...soldier, you moved too early lah.....in which case, please wait for the lowest low before you fire your 3rd.....your clearest signal is if the market dips, but the stock closes at about the same level, for days. Remember that your time frame is 6 mths or more. So what's the hurry for a few cents movement....(lemme guess, you bought on the upswing...)

plus, if i don't post, it means status quo, nothing new, hence no need to update. elves are small, they need to Snooze

a lot. muah haha.

In investing, you should be Cool

and not

.....

Hee. sorry. couldn't resist that last emoticon. pai tee kong. Laughing on Floor

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08-Jul-2008 13:41

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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keke. thumbs up to aleoleo and ozone. Smiley

you guys in HSI puts or STI puts? i don't like the STI puts leh; nothing really attractive...

i'm just waiting for my longterm counters to fall to the px i want. o/w, today's nothing out of the ordinary. Snooze

as per post on STE's thread: these two weeks will be volatile: earning seasons is in for the US. Dow components reporting; Alcoa and Gen Motors lead the way. Bernanke testifies in this week. Inside talk for oil is to hit 150 within these two weeks.

advice for newbies/non-techies remains the same: if you must invest, go longterm, via DCA, into good counters. You'll have less sleepless nights this way.

ok. elfie's off to Snooze

. hehe.

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08-Jul-2008 13:35

ST Engineering / ST Engg

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in case those who followed my call are panicking over the drop today:

note post as per below. the call for 3 strikes via DCA, to hold longterm, so as to manage money and risk profile.

has anything changed since then? No.

hence, no cause for panic.

Simply wait for the second strike, or first if you haven't went in. Your second strike will be if the px stays at that level, without much movement for at least 3 days, if not 5.

This is an eg of longterm TA blended with the DCA technique of FA.

Note external conditions: expect very volatile US conditions these two weeks as the Dow components report their results (Alcoa and Gen Motors lead the way); earning season is in. Bernanke testifies today and tomorrow. The inside talk on oil is that it should hit 150 within these two weeks. Look longterm: If the px at closing remains about the same, these represent opportunities to buy.

Stay calm above all. Smiley

elfinchilde ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 16:21) Posted:

If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x.

By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario.

first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32.

upside possible is to 3.2-3.3.

Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least).

To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember.

Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in.

Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important.

Caveat applies to the above as per usual.

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08-Jul-2008 13:20

Biosensors / Is Biosensors a good buy?

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I think you guys need to cool off. Appalling behaviour from grown men.

Two points:

1) Never mistake a company's value for the value of its stock.

2) Redash is right; it's leftover action. I know that BBs left this counter long ago already; a couple of them even got burnt.

Small timers in this counter need to take care. jackjames, in my opinion, 49c is too high to pay for this counter.

'nuff said.

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07-Jul-2008 20:22

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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yea CWQuah. when everyone starts wanting puts, that's the time to start going long. DJIA likely to be positive tonight: UJ up, EU down. Gold down, oil down.

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