Haha, anyway.........accumulate on weakness as most of Swiber’s US$788 million ($1.1 billion) worth of contracts secured last year will be executed in 2010.
Cheers.
street81 ( Date: 02-Mar-2010 23:06) Posted:
It's March now, why did they say "Shares are expected to remain in $1.01–$1.09 band, in place for whole of February."?
dealer0168 ( Date: 02-Mar-2010 22:45) Posted:
Swiber off 2.8%; buy on weakness, says DBS Vickers
Written by The Edge
Tuesday, 02 March 2010 10:36
Swiber Holdings (AK3.SG) is off 2.8% at $1.04 following lower FY09 earnings.
“FY09 results were below expectation, due to weaker-than-expected margins,” says DBS Vickers, which has “buy” call with $1.42 target, but expects revenue to bounce back strongly in FY10 as most of Swiber’s US$788 million ($1.1 billion) worth of contracts secured last year will be executed in 2010, askign investors to “buy into any post-results share price weakness.”
Swiber’s FY09 net profit was down 10.7% to US$34.7 million due to lower revenue, marked-to-market derivative loss, and one-time write-off of issuance costs for convertible bond sale.
CIMB has also lowered its target price to $1.65 from $1.72 after reducing FY10-11 EPS estimates to assume lower margins, but keeps “outperform” call, citing strong orderbook.
Shares are expected to remain in $1.01–$1.09 band, in place for whole of February.
Swiber off 2.8%; buy on weakness, says DBS Vickers
Written by The Edge
Tuesday, 02 March 2010 10:36
Swiber Holdings (AK3.SG) is off 2.8% at $1.04 following lower FY09 earnings.
“FY09 results were below expectation, due to weaker-than-expected margins,” says DBS Vickers, which has “buy” call with $1.42 target, but expects revenue to bounce back strongly in FY10 as most of Swiber’s US$788 million ($1.1 billion) worth of contracts secured last year will be executed in 2010, askign investors to “buy into any post-results share price weakness.”
Swiber’s FY09 net profit was down 10.7% to US$34.7 million due to lower revenue, marked-to-market derivative loss, and one-time write-off of issuance costs for convertible bond sale.
CIMB has also lowered its target price to $1.65 from $1.72 after reducing FY10-11 EPS estimates to assume lower margins, but keeps “outperform” call, citing strong orderbook.
Shares are expected to remain in $1.01–$1.09 band, in place for whole of February.
U forget on the possible $10/ lot divi.....cheers.
From what i see, emm someone seems to be pushing it UP.
nickyng ( Date: 02-Mar-2010 16:39) Posted:
Huh?? really?? u thk it will cheong back to 2.70+ level? hahah....i think possible BUT quite UNLIKELY rite? no dividend....no hidden GEM value....??! :)
178investors ( Date: 02-Mar-2010 16:33) Posted:
imo, not worth to short this counter now.
safer to buy and sell when you feel it got no more strength left, then consider shorting.
Oceanus Group’s (Oceanus) FY09 results fell short of expectations. Sales gained 13.6% to RMB362.2m. Gains from fair value changes, which is reported as the group’s top line, grew 25.7% to RMB651.4m. Core net profit improved by 4.7% to RMB343.2m, but fell short of our RMB397.2m projection. Value of biological assets almost doubled to RMB831.0m on higher abalone prices and a higher proportion of larger sized abalones, reflecting the group’s efforts to sow future growth. In our view, Oceanus has an ambitious but hazy growth strategy. It needs to deliver convincing earnings growth before we can be assured of its growth strategy. We maintain our HOLD rating and reduce our fair value estimate to S$0.365.
FY09 results below expectations. Oceanus Group’s FY09 results came in below expectations. Sales gained 13.6% to RMB362.2m. Gains from fair value changes, which is reported as the group’s top line, grew 25.7% to RMB651.4m. Core net profit improved by 4.7% to RMB343.2m on high operating costs, but fell short of our RMB397.2m projection. The lower-than-expected figures were in part due to weak abalone prices experienced during the first nine months of 2009, which was an indirect result of the economic recession. We understand that abalone prices have since recovered on the back of an industry supply shortage caused by high mortality due to a prolonged summer and severe snow in Northern PRC. According to management, overall abalone valuations recovered by 40% in Dec 09 vs. Dec 08. As expected, no dividends were declared.
Fruits of labour starting to show in asset values. While the group’s earnings fell short of expectations, we were comforted that its NAV, which forms the basis of our valuation, rose 58% to 78.56 RMB cents per share, reflecting the group’s success in growing its biological assets in preparation for future growth. Value of biological assets almost doubled to RMB831.0m from RMB445.0m a year ago thanks to improved abalone prices, coupled with a higher proportion of larger sized abalones (the value of an abalone increases with its size). We believe that its expansion efforts should pay off in future when the group monetizes its assets either by selling in the live market or by processing its abalones.
Ambitious but hazy strategy. Population of caged abalones fell to 119.8m from 138.6m a year ago as Oceanus sold its young abalones even though they had not reached optimal values. This came as a surprise as we had expected Oceanus to sell its abalones only when they reached their optimal values after three years. We believe that the urgency to monetize its biological assets could have been driven by tank shortage. The group had originally targeted to expand to 40,000 tanks by Dec 09, but due to rising land costs, it has only managed 25,055 tanks. In our view, Oceanus has an ambitious but hazy strategy. It needs to deliver convincing earnings growth before we can be assured of its growth strategy. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock and lower our fair value estimate to S$0.365 (from S$0.41).
Rotary Engineering’s (Rotary) FY09 performance exceeded expectations. Revenue grew 6.1% to S$551.9m, while net profit gained 6.7% to S$54.2m. Gross profit margin grew 1.7ppt to 31.1% and net profit margin swelled by 4.9ppt to 17.8% in 4Q09, surpassing our estimates, thanks to higher productivity and cost savings as several projects were completed during the quarter. The group’s order book remains robust at S$1.3b (vs. S$1.36b as of 3Q09) with visibility stretching till 2013, buoyed mainly by its landmark S$1.1b SATORP project. Rotary remains active in pursuing more projects in Asia and the Middle East, and any news of contract wins could serve as near-term catalysts for the stock. We have raised our earnings projections and lift our valuation peg to 14x (from 13x) in view of the improving outlook, deriving a fair value estimate of S$1.44 (previously $1.37). Maintain BUY.
4Q09 surpasses expectations. Rotary Engineering (Rotary) delivered a good set of 4Q09 results. The group reported revenue of S$147.0m (down 1.6% YoY but up 35.2% QoQ), gross profit of S$45.7m (up 3.9% YoY and 65.7% QoQ) and net profit of S$26.2m (up 36.0% YoY and 143.9% QoQ). For the full year, revenue improved 6.1% to S$551.9m, while net profit gained 6.7% to S$54.2m, beating our forecast by 29%. If not for a non-recurring S$5.7m debt provision, net profit would have grown by a larger 17.9% to S$60.0m. A final dividend of 3.8 S cents has been declared, implying a yield of 3.8%.
Good 4Q09 margins, but guidance remains cautious. Rotary’s 4Q09 profit margins beat our estimates and management’s guidance on higher productivity and realisation of cost savings as several projects were completed during the quarter. Gross profit margin hit 31.1% (vs. 29.4% in 4Q08 and 25.4% in 3Q09); while net profit margin swelled to 17.8% (vs. 12.9% in 4Q08 and 9.9% in 3Q09). Despite achieving robust profit margins in 4Q09, management continued to guide for a cautious 18% - 20% gross profit margin in FY10, citing keen competition as well as lagged effect from lower-margin projects secured during the credit crunch, which may continue to weigh on the group’s earnings.
Earnings visibility buoyed by all-time high order book. The group’s order book remains robust at S$1.3b (vs. S$1.36b as of 3Q09) with visibility stretching till 2013, buoyed mainly by its landmark S$1.1b SATORP project. We understand that SATORP has been making good progress and started contributing to the group’s earnings in 4Q09. We expect SATORP to give its earnings a bigger boost from 2H10 onwards as the project goes into full swing. However, receivables days are expected to lengthen as collections may be slower due to red tape involved with the massive scale of the SATORP project. Nevertheless, management allayed concerns over potential bad debts associated with SATORP, alluding to low Saudi Arabian sovereign risk.
Maintain BUY. Tendering activity is likely to heat up as more projects come on stream along with the economic recovery. Rotary remains active in pursuing more projects in Asia and the Middle East, and any news of contract wins could serve as near-term catalysts for the stock. We have raised our earnings projections and lift our valuation peg to 14x (from 13x) in view of the improving outlook, deriving a fair value estimate of S$1.44 (previously $1.37). Maintain BUY.
Summary: Rotary Engineering’s (Rotary) FY09 performance exceeded expectations. The group reported a 4Q09 revenue of S$147.0m (-1.6% YoY, +35.2% QoQ), gross profit of S$45.7m (+3.9% YoY, +65.7% QoQ) and net profit of S$26.2m (+36.0% YoY, +143.9% QoQ). Gross profit margin came in at a healthy 31.1% (vs. 29.4% in 4Q08 and 25.4% in 3Q09); while net profit margin swelled to 17.8% (vs. 12.9% in 4Q08 and 9.9% in 3Q09). For the full year, FY09 revenue grew 6.1% to S$551.9m while net profit improved 6.7% to S$54.2m, or 29% above our S$42.0m projection. The group’s order book remains at relatively unchanged at S$1.3b (vs. S$1.36b as of 3Q09) with visibility stretching till 2013, buoyed mainly by its landmark US$0.7b SATORP project. A final dividend of 3.8 S cents has been declared. We will have more updates after today’s analyst briefing. For now, we maintain our BUY rating and put our S$1.37 fair value estimate under review. (Lee Wen Ching)