Latest Posts By andreytan
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About andreytan
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| 15-Aug-2011 21:43 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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buy some to profit, don,t be bearish for now, the earliest bear to come will be ard end september 2011,,, if not then bull is lucky to last till first quater, 2012... but 2012, will be year ofreckoning for the bull. year of the ISOLATOR. don't say i make it, what i post is what i read eslewhere which i think got 60 to 70% of accuracy, good enough .And tonite rally, even with manufacturing data is lousy, what a joke??? they did not say mkt was fairly value now and time to buy.
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| 13-Aug-2011 08:45 |
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I am a MESSENGER only, i don't create it, i hea useful, i share , i post. i paste , you read, you react, you gain or you loss????
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| 13-Aug-2011 08:42 |
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Here again, if you don't talk and be prepare, don,t be in the mkt, keep cash to be safe. as data come out mkt will react, but u don't want to talk and i suppose see, then u are throwing your money to the wind, no offend, sorry. iven the likelihood of a continued global slowdown in economic growth to persist into the end of the year, it appears then that whether we avoid a recession hinges on whether global central banks can take enough decisive action to overwhelm any shocks during what Lakshman calls this “window of vulnerability.” So far central bankers have taken initial steps to help calm global markets which appears to be working. Will it be enough? Not likely given leading economic indicators suggests further erosion ahead. Thus, unless central bankers open the monetary spigots even further we will be slipping into a recession into year end. It then appears there will be a tug-of-war between global economic prospects and the world’s central banks. Below is likely to be the formula that we will see at least into year end.
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| 13-Aug-2011 08:31 |
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I don't forcast recession , these people do, i am just a messenger, don't blame me. i paste here for benefit of all, go read it. Over the course of the last few weeks we have seen economic reports released that have raised recessionary alarm bells. In addition, the European drama erupted again as European bond vigilantes attacked Europe’s weakest links (PIIGS) and now the carnage is spreading to core European countries like Italy and France. In kind, global stock markets have sold off to the point where more than half of global stock markets have experienced bear markets. As to be expected, global central bankers are responding and taking action. The big question all are asking now is, will their actions be enough to turn the global economic slowdown around or will more economic and financial market damage need to be done before central bankers act more forcefully? Global Economic Train Is Coming Off the TracksBack in June I made the case that past monetary actions from global central bankers were finally being felt in global economies (“Global monetary tightening taking its toll, risks mount”). The monetary tightening programs of central bankers globally that began in late 2009 and carried over into 2011 were designed to bring down inflation and overheated economies. The risk with every monetary tightening mode is that central bankers go too far and drag their economies into a recession which is often associated with some type of financial crisis. This phenomenon is made clear in the following figure of past U.S. Fed tightening cycles and associated financial crises.
Source: Jim Puplava, “The Next Rogue Wave” (12/15/2006) The collective result of global monetary tightening over the past year has been a marked deceleration in global growth, and now it appears their actions have gone too far as leading economic indicators have not only decelerated but have dropped into negative territory. Shown below is the composite leading economic indicator (LEI) for the 34 countries of the OECD. The growth rate for the LEI has now turned negative after being positive for the first time since October 2007. Looking back over the last decade, the only false signal in the OECD LEI that didn’t lead to a recession here in the U.S. was in 2003, though that signal came after a prolonged bear market and sluggish economy. However, the current reading is coming after a strong bull market in equities and thus carries far more significance. I do not expect we are seeing a false signal.
Source: Bloomberg The fact that the 34-member OECD LEI is now negative tells us risks are as high as they were in the last recession and that another global recession may be upon us. Within the OECD, the G7 block of countries shows most of the weakness with their own LEIs turning negative in April. Countries that now have negative LEI readings as of June are listed below:
The collective OECD LEI is being pulled lower by the developed countries while the emerging countries LEIs, while decelerating, are still positive. Here in the U.S., economic breadth is also deteriorating and pointing towards a possible recession occurring later in the year. While individual countries can bring down the collective OECD growth rate, individual states within the U.S. can bring down the national growth rate. Thus, it is never a good sign to see more and more states slip into contractionary mode as when enough states' economic growth rates rolls over, eventually so too does the country. Shown below is the Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident One Month Diffusion Index. Readings below 50 indicate less than half of the 50 states are expanding and when only half the country is expanding economically, national economic growth takes a hit and a recession typically ensues. That has been the message over the past three decades where readings below 50% often indicate that a recession is on the horizon with a typical lead time of 4-5 months. Given May showed the first sub 50% reading, we may be entering a recession as early as September of this year. Of note, the only false sub 50% signal came last summer, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke came to the rescue with QE 2.
Source: Bloomberg Today we were treated to the August reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report which showed a reading of 54.9, the third worst reading in history and well below the median estimate of 62.0. This has been the case now for the past month in which economists have been way off the mark in terms of their estimates and reality. This often occurs at major tipping points (both bearish and bullish) as economists often extrapolate past results into the future and thus overshoot at economic peaks and undershoot at economic troughs. The string of overshoots in estimates from the ISM Manufacturing Index to GDP to consumer sentiment indicates we are yet at another economic inflection point in which the economy is rolling over. What is troubling about the Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading is that it often leads turns in consumption trends. First consumer’s moods change and then spending patterns follow suit. The sharp drop in consumer sentiment suggests consumers are likely to pullback sharply on spending in the months ahead.
Source: Bloomberg And yet one more sign of the U.S. slipping into recession was the recent GDP report which showed real GDP on a year-over-year basis has slipped below the 2% growth mark. Going back more than half a century shows this 2% level is vitally important to hold as we have slipped into a recession within 12 months every time, no exception. Thus, the recent 1.6% growth rate is not an encouraging sign for the U.S. economy going forward.
Source: Bloomberg Global Central Bankers to the RescueOne thing that 2010 showed investors was that, while central banks may have been slow to react during the 2007-2009 recession and financial turmoil, they were more quick to react to the growth slowdown seen last summer. Here in the U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke hinted at another round of quantitative easing (QE) in August at his Jackson Hole speech, and made good on those comments with QE2 in November 2010. Shown below, it pays to heed the old saying of “Don’t Fight the Fed.”
Source: Bloomberg Since the global correction in stock markets that accelerated this month, central banks appear to working together to yet again turn the tide on global economic growth and stock markets as the following Bloomberg article points out (emphasis added). Central Bankers Worldwide Race to Save Growth in 72 Hours of Policymaking Finance ministers and central bankers from the G-7 nations, which include the U.S., U.K. and Germany, said in a statement Aug. 7 that they will “take all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth in a spirit of close cooperation and confidence...” Since August 7th, here are a few of the actions being taken by global central bankers:
Given that the global markets began to roll over materially only a few weeks ago, this has to be one the quickest coordinated responses post a significant peak in the markets in some time. What we are seing so far is the first salvo of coordinated central bank action. Various leading economic indicators are suggesting that growth here in the U.S. and globally will continue to decelerate into year end and it will be important to see how forcefully world central bankers respond. How will the U.S. markets react to a sub 50 reading on the ISM Manufacturing Index? I pose this question because one reliable leading indicator for the U.S. ISM Manufacturing index is the Australian Consumer Confidence reading which typically leads the ISM by several months and is forecasting an ISM reading near 40 by November.
Source: Bloomberg Not only is the U.S. economy expected to continue to slow into year end, but so too the global economy. I highlighted back in June the report from Lakshman Achuthan, managing director from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who noted to his clients in January of this year that global growth would hit a wall by this summer based on their global leading economic indicators. He also said his call came before the Japanese earthquake or Middle East unrest, and so he warned not to attribute the slowdown to those events. I bring this up because in his June interview he said to expect a “dead cat bounce” which turned out to occur in July before the global economy and stock markets rolled over.Below is a key excerpt I took from an interview he did in June that I included in my June article: This is a key point because our indicators suggested a global slowdown to hit this summer before the Japan earthquake and before the Middle East unrest. Because of these temporary economic setbacks from Japan and the Middle East we fully expect to see a quick ‘dead cat’ bounce in global activity. This will be latched on by the Fed and others to prove we were just in a ‘soft patch’ or ‘speed bump.’ However, like I said, our indicators turned down well before those events which suggests to us any sharp economic bounce will be short lived and the slow economic malaise we are calling for will be persistent, pervasive, and pronounced and any temporary reprieve will be just that, ‘temporary.” Given the decline that occurred late in July and the horrible U.S GDP report, the financial media all sought out Lackshman to hear his views. He was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal and he made some key points that are worth repeating, with excerpts provided below (emphasis added). Are We At A Tipping Point? The Wall Street Journal (07/29/2011) Lakshman – “You always have a slowdown before a recession. When that slowdown occurs there is a window of opportunity for growth to resume. When you have a shock during that window of vulnerability, it’s very risk business.” Wall Street Journal – “In the fall of 2007, you warned that if the Fed didn’t act right then, we were heading into a recession and you were right. What are you seeing now?” Lakshman – “One of the most troubling recent developments is the consumer. When looking at the recent GDP report, consumption essentially went nowhere. The consumer, which is 70% of the economy isn’t doing anything here during this window of vulnerability, so risks are high. Lakshman – “You guys were just talking about 2008. Prior to Lehman, our leading indicators were at their worst levels in 30 years, THEN Lehman happened. Thus, we had a lot of vulnerability and then a shock like Lehman hit and boom ‘The Great Recession’ hits. Lakshman – “Business cycles are about levels of risk. And right now risks are high.” Given the likelihood of a continued global slowdown in economic growth to persist into the end of the year, it appears then that whether we avoid a recession hinges on whether global central banks can take enough decisive action to overwhelm any shocks during what Lakshman calls this “window of vulnerability.” So far central bankers have taken initial steps to help calm global markets which appears to be working. Will it be enough? Not likely given leading economic indicators suggests further erosion ahead. Thus, unless central bankers open the monetary spigots even further we will be slipping into a recession into year end. It then appears there will be a tug-of-war between global economic prospects and the world’s central banks. Below is likely to be the formula that we will see at least into year end.
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| 13-Aug-2011 08:14 |
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But indicater of ECRI had weaken starting in June last yr when there was talk of double dip before Japan quake, then it strengthen from there, and here we are, the indicater is headig down again quite badly. if the ECRI chart is of any measure, when ever this indicater weaken the second time , recession follow. so if there is a recession, it it toward end of 4Q or early next year. and time to be cautious, becos if u dont talk and prepare, wait till it happen, your portfolio will be hit. because as economic data come out , mkt will react by selling down,, and affect your stock px. chances of a new recession is very great this time. and this time the recession will be even worse, because US and major economy have yet to fully recover fr the last one. it will take longer and deeper, sorry to have opposing view,
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| 13-Aug-2011 00:36 |
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But for me, i make mostly from long. and i still believe we will have a rally in this secular bear mkt till the end of the year, no way the euro debt problem is ok. what i see is Spain got hit next, and then Italy, Portugal and Grrece default, these will expose US financial and the financial ard the globe, ..this one will take at least 3 to 4 yrs to digest. what i means is mkt will bottom 3 to 4 yr from 2012. |
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| 13-Aug-2011 00:30 |
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How do i go short? On very bad news, u know future - a few hundred point, dies sure collapse on the next day open. if say i long 10 lots, immediately the next day mkt open very deep down , wait awhile first, mkt will turn up a little, then i would sell 30 lots. so now i go short 20 lots, and it is bad news like last wk, it is not going to be down for a day, down 2 to 3 days up one days.. and put a stop on the short. and let the stop put u out, then wait , like next wk,,,time to long again and put a stop loss also. how do u guy do the short, can share???? it all really depend on luck, but this rd i make little, so u think to short is profitable, i want to know how u do it?? pls share generously. thanks |
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| 12-Aug-2011 22:18 |
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Shorting is hedging, Shorting is a cover for the long. Shorting is not immoral. stop blamimg shorting for the misery. If your fundamental are good, what can the mkt do to you??? |
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| 12-Aug-2011 21:45 |
Yanlord Land
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The Accumulation Zone
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One say accumulation, another say short, so who is right? but i think buy will be a better bet...buy buy buy... bye bye bye!!! |
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| 12-Aug-2011 17:13 |
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Isolater, i think you will be isolated by the bull for now, i think so, but you will not be isolated by the big bear next year.. i means your turn to short big time next yr, better let it soar higher, so you can profit more, do i make you happy by been an isolated case here. 
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| 12-Aug-2011 17:09 |
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If the S& P 500 stay abv 1173 for 4 sections , we can very well comfirm this correction is over, and mkt to rally, of course, up and down uptrend to 1350 and abv by yr end.. But truthly this is a bear rally, please take profit of cut min losses when necessary. going forward , i think the weekly indicater will be side way to up. good luck to all,
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| 12-Aug-2011 02:47 |
Others
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STI vs GOLD
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Gold is pure speculation, after exchange hike the margin, it price collapse. this show invester do not intend to hold for what so call safe haven. now, those who bought 1800, are definitely in danger not safe. they are in gold for pure speculation . |
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| 12-Aug-2011 02:26 |
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S& P 1350 or higher by yr end ...chances is good. i think so.
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| 12-Aug-2011 02:23 |
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Chances is great that this is just a correction. this is the third time S& P touch 11XX and bounce back strongly, hope this round it is no different. the first one after hitting this level rally for a 1 mth plus or so, the 2nd one hit this level and rally till this crash, so the third one may rally and last till end of the yr. |
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| 12-Aug-2011 02:01 |
InnoTek
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INNOTEK LIMITED
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nop,i dont think so, they are a generous lot, they are cash rich. they paid div every yr. i bought this one at 56.5c and stuck there for a long time, and sold at 60c. this one not so liquid.no doubt a good counter,, Why not put your money elsewhere?? a rally coming, so your money work harder for you,.
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| 12-Aug-2011 01:49 |
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Look!!! who is buying. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/11/
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| 12-Aug-2011 01:29 |
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thanks you, isolator for isolating. so did u buy, when mkt crash? or did u miss and still waiting for doomday??lol joking, u can always ignore me but i will not ignore you. this forum is for everyone, u are welcome here. your 2600 is real, in fact, it is still too high. i thk 1600...wait i put on helemt first before ppl here knock my head. ..when???next yr.
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| 12-Aug-2011 01:23 |
Others
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GE2011 Co-driver analogy...haha
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In the first place, we shd do away with the President. It is a waste of public money to have a President. If the govt of the day, can override him, thro ,Parliament, he is there for what??? it is a waste of our time and money holding all these election., those $ shd go to the poor and disable, |
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| 12-Aug-2011 01:14 |
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actually,ppl hate short selling and blame mkt down on shortist. yes, there is some true in this, but shorting is actually a form of hedging. u see,, on start of crash, i faster go short, to cover the lose on the long, so what is wrong with that. i am doing protection on my vestment., it is wrong???
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| 12-Aug-2011 01:11 |
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Why not do us a favour??? can you please ignore yourself. and be a spectator.
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