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CHHX is running up now, broke above 19.5 resistance, good luck to those who had bought & are patient.
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I trade thru both DBSV & UOBKH & do have trading limits.
Maybe he is filfty rich millionaire with properties pledged to the broking house, thus no trading limits.
Anyway, we are bound to come across all sorts of forumers here, like eg gunho heroes, howlian, etc, etc...
These howlians are attention-seekers, deprived & craving for attention, so I just ignore them, dun bother to waste my breath to reply them.
If they really make so much, I wish them well but sincerely hope they are willing to share unless it is their trade secrets
cheongwee ( Date: 08-May-2009 04:38) Posted:
hi richtan....u tok sense...prehap maybe i am a bit too much...but if someone is insulting the intelligent of forumer here, then i have to point out...i cant let him bully us, and treat us like nut by toking nonsense.
U can make buy call, u can make sell call, all analyst also make buy/sell call...it is alright..to share your tip...of course..DYODD...but to "how lian" with hundred of lots nonsense..i cannot tahan..
afterall, this is one of the reason we are here for...for tip to make $$$..and i do find some of the tip here really make me $$..
btw,,do your broker allow to to buy/sell as many as you want with no limit, pls introduce to me..i will sack mine.
thank you in advance.
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Markets is basically ruled by "greed & fear", at times have no logic, wat is overbought can be even more overbought. I will only sell unless I see a reversal sign.
richtan ( Date: 08-May-2009 01:01) Posted:
I m a patient trader, I dun believe have to trade in & out everyday to make money.
I can wait for the S-chips dust to settle, of course, keeping my fingers cross tat CHHX is not one of those rotten apples.
I m prepared to dump it if it is proven to be a rotten apple but let profits run.
I always remember the trading maxim: "Cut-losses short & let profits run".
callim22 ( Date: 07-May-2009 18:26) Posted:
Hahaha.. Realised that richtan and myself had been a loyal fan of China Hongx.. Had been following CHHX so closely since its drop in Oct 09 till now. Sure a tough period to endure through with this counter.
Anyway, it had definitely break its $0.16 point and reach a good high of $0.19 today. Had sold all mine today to take a healthy profit since it is presently overbought. Will still come back once it reach a good low or support again. I still love this counter as the company is still fundamentally cash rich. Only problem is that it is too cash rich and not generating good profit per share. If it can manage the money it had better, I'm sure lots of people will take up this counter and keep it for future :) |
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I m a patient trader, I dun believe have to trade in & out everyday to make money.
I can wait for the S-chips dust to settle, of course, keeping my fingers cross tat CHHX is not one of those rotten apples.
I m prepared to dump it if it is proven to be a rotten apple but let profits run.
I always remember the trading maxim: "Cut-losses short & let profits run".
callim22 ( Date: 07-May-2009 18:26) Posted:
Hahaha.. Realised that richtan and myself had been a loyal fan of China Hongx.. Had been following CHHX so closely since its drop in Oct 09 till now. Sure a tough period to endure through with this counter.
Anyway, it had definitely break its $0.16 point and reach a good high of $0.19 today. Had sold all mine today to take a healthy profit since it is presently overbought. Will still come back once it reach a good low or support again. I still love this counter as the company is still fundamentally cash rich. Only problem is that it is too cash rich and not generating good profit per share. If it can manage the money it had better, I'm sure lots of people will take up this counter and keep it for future :) |
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My stop-loss & trailing stops are manually keep track based on end-of-day candles decision for next day, when it confirms break-down & hit my stops, I will exit the following day.
I dun do it intraday as at times it is a fakeout, hit your stop-loss only to later on in the day to bounce up, kena play-out.
aircraft ( Date: 07-May-2009 21:13) Posted:
Hi RichTan, which brokerage firm you use have stop-loss and trailing stops functions ? My brokerage for s'pore trades don't have these services unlike the US brokerage which have much much more functions to use. Thanks.
richtan ( Date: 04-May-2009 11:52) Posted:
It is useless to ask for things like recomended entry & target price.
Just remember trading rules 101: "Set stop-loss when entered a trade, cut losses short & let profits ride with trailing stops".
If u ask 7 blind men, all will give different reply, so have to look at the elephant & decides yourself, as nobody is answerable to your pockets.
TA wise, it has been going up for 3 days now, forming higher highs & higher lows & break above the 15sma. |
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Never mind, we need more of these type of gungho heroes to help push up, let them learn thru the school of hard knocks, maybe they are too filthy rich, can afford to keep shorting until the trend reverses, but GOD bless them, hopefully they dun run out of bullets b4 the trend turns down in their favour, or else, game-over for them loh
cheongwee ( Date: 07-May-2009 18:43) Posted:
we got all sort of trader here, got one say he shorted using CFD...and leave it open..fr 80c he short till nw...1.30...he did not cloesd the position , i think he will have to join chrysler to file for chpter 11!!!
what i post is what i have read, not make up story, u all can refer to their post...if necessary i can copy their post and paste here... |
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Never mind, gungho heroe, let him learn thru the school of hard knocks, maybe he is too filthy rich, can afford to keep shorting until the trend reverses, but hopefully he dun run out of bullets b4 the trend turns down in his favour, or else, game-over for him.
Livermore ( Date: 07-May-2009 21:51) Posted:
You don't short on a rising trend.
handon ( Date: 07-May-2009 21:36) Posted:
short... short... short.... hehe....
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CW,
Many thanks for your tipsy, sorry, not pouring cold water on u all, but loking at the chart, I think I will give it a miss as it is grossly overbought, of course, wat is overbought can be even more overbought but I m very conservative & kiasi type, as the risk/reward to me is not favorable.
I may consider buying only if there is a pullback.
Anyway, wish u all the best & huat-ah to u all.
cheongwee ( Date: 07-May-2009 14:52) Posted:
hi rich tan.......Boy OH Boy...today ppl were selling me cheap..i hope they enjoy thier profit..now my turn...lucky today buy alot..and also sell much less...
buyt SAR nw..info is 2 bucks.. |
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Alemak, the bear is on honeymoon holiday lah, busy making babies, no time to come & ka-chiau lah...
winsontkl ( Date: 07-May-2009 22:48) Posted:
With all the juicy $$honey$$ from recent climb ... the Big Bear is not far away ... |
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No, no, no, CW, u need not have to leave this forum just bcos if it did not materialise.
Your good intentions is really deeply appreciated, do continue to post though at times we do agree to disagree & voice our individual opinion
cheongwee ( Date: 07-May-2009 14:15) Posted:
Guy , be brave buy now...i bet on this,,,if this never come abt, i will not do any post in this forum i like so much ever again..
cheongwee will leave for good.
FYI..i have info more fund are getting ready to come in..dont wait ..
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CHHX finally had broke the 16 ct resistance & now charging up on extremely high volume.
Markets will soon start to realise tat not all S-chips are rotten apples & once all this corporate governance issue are resolved & enforced, soon the play will be back to those good quality S-chips. So why wait to join the rushhing crowd buying at a higher price when now is the best opportunity to bargain buy.
Remember the trading maxim: Buy low & sell high, not buy high & sell low. The risk/reward is definitely better when buy low.
richtan ( Date: 05-May-2009 12:05) Posted:
IMO, CHHX is definitely a good buy (dyodd), it has been on an uptrend since 12 March & is now above its 15sma, 21sma, 34sma, 55sma & had formed higher highs & higher lows for 4 days (inclusive of today). Once it breaks its resistance at 16 ct, it will start shooting up. |
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I'm not saying Midas is no good, I know they have a 1 billion $ China stimulus infrastructure contract & will sooner run up but it may consolidate or correct or who knows, markets are at times crazy, I may be wrong, it may not even correct now but charge up & consolidate or correct later on.
One consolation is tat the RSI is still around 50, not overbought yet, so has a lot of upside potential.
It may seems not running up today while many counters are running up as it maybe consolidating its recent gains, noticed it closes unchanged today.
TA wise, it may start charging up once it breaks the resistance around 53 cts.
I will start buying in on a breakout of 53 cta, while in the meantime putting my funds into other moving counters. In a nutshell, it is rotational play.
knightbridge ( Date: 06-May-2009 19:15) Posted:
But this one got china gov backing with real contracts for rail and train. I am only worry if they cannot meet the demand for all contracts..
Hmmnn.. But then the gain are very slow when compare to STI index run up.. Only 53 cents. I am thinking it should be 70cents now since STI is at 2100 level.. Sigh.. Laggard counter... Hee Hee
Invest in MIDAS (long term)
richtan ( Date: 06-May-2009 12:07) Posted:
STI & most stocks including Midas had run up to much, no point chasing after them, correction akan datang once short covering finished.
Remember initially there was "irrational fear", now there is "irrational exuberance", soon sanity will return.
Dun be caught off-guard & struck by the recuperating bear. |
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STI & most stocks including Midas had run up to much, no point chasing after them, correction akan datang once short covering finished.
Remember initially there was "irrational fear", now there is "irrational exuberance", soon sanity will return.
Dun be caught off-guard & struck by the recuperating bear.
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1st we have bird flu, then "Bull Flu", followed by swine flu & now we have "Bear Flu"
HLJHLJ ( Date: 06-May-2009 00:05) Posted:
I've said before Bear is injured by swine flu...Remember no vaccine yet... LOL (just a joke). I'm still vested after reading Cheong Wee and Ipunter's posts. Thanks. Also averaging up along the way to reduce risk. I think might still have some legs to go before a correction come. I've guessed 2200. Looks like 2100 is hard to crack but if cracked, well maybe next resistance is 2250.
richtan ( Date: 04-May-2009 23:50) Posted:
Bear in coma now. Chow when it recovers from coma, meanwhile, make hay while the bear is away. hahahah... |
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IMO, CHHX is definitely a good buy (dyodd), it has been on an uptrend since 12 March & is now above its 15sma, 21sma, 34sma, 55sma & had formed higher highs & higher lows for 4 days (inclusive of today). Once it breaks its resistance at 16 ct, it will start shooting up.
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Yes, I had read this writeup before, note his disclaimer:
This implies that we may (no guarantees here) see lower prices in the precious metals in the following days.
Of course the market might prove me wrong, as nobody can be right 100% of the time
cheongweee ( Date: 05-May-2009 04:25) Posted:
To richtan...this may of interest to u and some ppl here..
Precious Metals Correlations - Next Step in the Multi-market Analysis
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As you already know, it is usually best to analyze many markets, even if you are really interested in only few of them. After all, given today's level of globalization in the world economy and in financial markets, it is not uncommon to see most (!) markets plunge or soar at the same time. I've written about this phenomenon in the essay dedicated to gold market's fundamentals, so I don't want to repeat myself here.
Analyzing many markets already gives us advantage over most investors, who focus on gold or silver only, but I don't want to stop just there. In order to make this multi-market analysis even more efficient, I try to estimate the strength of "influence" that particular non-PM market has on gold, silver and corresponding equities. Consequently, I’m able to pay greater attention to markets that are more important at particular moment. One of the ways to measure the strength of the aforementioned "influence" is to use the linear correlation coefficient. I have put "influence" into quotation marks, because the correlation coefficient does not tell us which market influences which - still, we have the common sense to know that the price of gold determines earnings and therefore share prices of gold mining companies, not the other way around.
What this number really tells us, is "how much" have the markets moved together in the past, without telling us why this has taken place. This "correlation number" takes values from -1 to 1. If it has a negative value it means that this correlation is negative - two markets on average move in the opposite direction. If the "correlation number" is positive, then it means that these two markets move in the same direction on average.
Before I continue, I believe a technical digression is needed. I would not recommend using correlation coefficients to calculate the exact sizes of one’s positions or to estimate the size of the position that one would want to hedge. Most statistical coefficients (including the one mentioned in this essay) are biased as a result of assuming normal distribution of returns. It does not pose a serious threat as long as you only use the results for comparison or to as an additional technique. One should also check the raw data for rare (but significant) events.
To better understand the concept of the correlation coefficient, please consider the following example. I suppose that nobody will argue with the fact that gold and silver move in the same direction on average. If we calculated the value of correlation coefficient for gold and silver it would certainly be positive. You can tell the strength of the correlation by looking how far it is from 0. For example during last year (+/- 250 trading days) gold and S&P Index have moved rather independently from each other and the correlation value is very close to 0 (it equaled 0.08 on April 24th). On the other hand, HUI Index has moved rather in tune with the price of gold, so the correlation coefficient for the previous year equaled 0.67. Please take a look at the table below.
I have calculated values of correlation coefficient for gold, silver and PM stocks with USD Index and the general stock market (S&P Index). I have grouped the results into columns, depending on how much data I have used to calculate a particular number. The first one has been calculated for the previous two weeks (10 trading days), whereas the last one has been calculated for the previous year (+/- 250 trading days)
The column, which one should analyze depends on what one wants to know. If you're a long-term Investor who wants to analyze the long-term trends, one should go with the last column that is created by calculating data from the previous 250 trading days (about a year). On the other hand, Day-Traders should focus on the 30-day long column or even the 10-day one (though this one is not statistically significant, but that is another matter).
The point is that not only do the prices on various markets change and should be analyzed in different time-frames, but the same applies to the way markets influence each other. The important thing here is that prices and correlations don't necessarily change at the same time. Therefore, when we see that we are getting closer to a particular turning point in gold, silver or corresponding equities, we may check what the key markets are - at that particular moment. This will tell us what might serve as a catalyst for either breakout or breakdown, which consequently increases our chances of making a correct decision. In other words, analyzing these key markets should provide us with more information about future prices and trends, than analyzing other, non-key markets.
The table above tells us several obvious things (thus indicating that this type of analysis makes sense), and several new ones. As far as the former are concerned, please note that the correlation between gold and gold stocks is always positive, meaning that gold and gold stocks tend to move in the same direction - which is obvious, and that does not add much to what we already know. On the other hand, we see several interesting points.
Gold has been lately (30- and 90-day correlation) trading rather in tune with the general stock market (naturally in the opposite direction), but it seems that gold is going to trade more independently in the future. The 10-day correlation equaled mere 0.07 which means that in the very recent past gold moved rather independently from the general stock market. As I've mentioned earlier, 10 days is not enough data to make any detailed claims, but it's enough for us to be suspicious regarding the previously prevailing correlation.
In the April 3rd Premium Update, I wrote:
It is difficult to say, when will markets stop perceiving U.S. Dollars as a safe haven, but I will monitor this situation and report to you accordingly. For now, the direct implication is that for now, signals for the USD market do not automatically translate into signals for gold/silver.
At the moment, it (once again) seems that gold is resuming its normal, negative correlation with the dollar (as measured by the USD Index). This, accompanied by already strong negative correlation USD - silver and USD - HUI, is more than enough to make me get back to my regular USD analysis. Although, this is not yet certain, not-analyzing the USD market may be costly.
Summing up, there is no strong proof yet, but it seems that the precious metals market is once again looking more at the USD Index, than at the general stock market. This does not mean that "from now on, the dollar market is all there is to the precious metals market", but it indicates that divergences between the dollar market and the precious metals market should once again be viewed as important. The general stock market is still relevant in our analysis, but we may need to look at the dollar market for more meaningful signals. Since USD Index has not broken down through its rising support trend line, the short-term trend remains up. This implies that we may (no guarantees here) see lower prices in the precious metals in the following days.
Of course the market might prove me wrong, as nobody can be right 100% of the time. To make sure that you know my thoughts (including information not mentioned here) on the market as soon as I post them, I suggest signing up for my free mailing list. Sign up today and you’ll also get 24 hours of access to the Premium Sections on my website (including tools and charts dedicated to PM investors and speculators). It’s free and you may unregister easily.
Additionally, you will be able to see the correlation table with up-to-date coefficients.
P. Radomski Editor Sunshine Profits
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There you are, finally, gpmg bullets spray easily break down the relatively weak resistance fort 49.
richtan ( Date: 04-May-2009 14:40) Posted:
0.49 is no problem one lah..., a few more gpmg bullets spray will sure tear down the resistance wall lah....
yipyip ( Date: 04-May-2009 14:31) Posted:
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Wow!!! The boatman has gone bonkers, become speeding gonzalis, too fast for my comfort, enjoyed the ride, now contented & abandoned boat.
Will consider boarding again later on at a lower fares when he has regained his senses & slowed down
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Gold does not necessarily always move in opposite direction to equities as shown only quite recently whereby it moves in tandem with equities in the same direction.
In any case, whatever it is, even if gold does corrects, it presents another good buy opportunity, as ultimately, it will breech 1000, it is just a matter of time, be patient & accumulate whenever it corrects.
cheongweee ( Date: 05-May-2009 02:22) Posted:
i know, but can't i have a 10% error...just like u all said there are not sure thing in life., so the 10% error are sure to my advantage...
you are right..just like u all have said there are no sure thing in life...u are virtually saying 50/50....and u are sure right...so to thk of it...u all are so sure that there are no sure thing..
in fact, everything in this cosmo are no sure thing, death, sun rises from the east and set in the west..
what if an asteroid hit earth tomolo...will the sun still rises in the east again? or what if there is an after life...will there be death.? or does death any matter?
but i believ that u ppl like my prediction to be a sure thing secretly ,am i right???
richtan ( Date: 05-May-2009 00:15) Posted:
Hahaha.... alemak... wah piang oh!!
u must be counting too much $$$ until your mind goes bonkers...
100-18 = 82, not 72 lah |
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From: http://www.preciousmetalstockreview.com/downloads/May%202,%202009%20pdf.pdf
Gold fell only 3.27% on the month which on the surface is respectable.
On this log scale monthly chart all trend-lines are solid and strong. There
aren’t too many other markets or stocks you can say the same about. The two
lines on top denote the neckline of the massive head and shoulders pattern.
Certain technicians could use either line as the neck so they are both there for
your viewing pleasure. Basically the $1,000 line is the where gold will either
blast o
The lighting bolts that hit gold this week still have the hair on the back of
my neck upright. I don’t often publish charts showing intraday movements but
this week was among the most blatant weeks that gold was obviously taken
down at the same time, to the same degree on two days.
For years now it’s been an obvious, disingenuous trend that gold hasGATA but not many others are willing to admit itfficial mentors, Bill Murphy, get so
risen in the east and fallen in the west. Many times at the exact moment the NY
markets open. This week the Tuesday and Thursday trading was pretty sick to
keep it publishable. Why would the price be taken down the day before and
after the FOMC meeting at the exact same time to the exact same degree? I
know the answer and so does
yet.
The other thing I would like you to look at in the chart is the end of the
NY trade where no other world markets are yet open. You have to have a pretty
big line and either be an institution or have very good connections to trade this
thin market. So many times over the course of this bull market the price has
traded well all day only to be moved around, usually lower, in the Globex
market where volume is low.
So many including one of my uno
aggravated by this type of action. To me its inevitable that gold and silver will
continue their bull markets and I am actually grateful for more time to buy at
low prices. But so many do take it personally and get upset even some of my
subscribers and correspondents want action now. I can’t move the market and
don’t care to. This market is taking it’s sweet time moving, whether that be it’s
or it is being forced upon it matters not. Too many want riches now
and today. Patience is a virtue and makes life easier and less stressful. Gold
and silver will go much, much higher and shake out the many weak hands who
jump in as it roars and complain and sell losing money when it contracts. We
are years from the blow o
right and sit tight.
That’s been my motto for years now and I am sticking to it. Gold has
risen on average over 16% a year for the last eight years. Last weekend I had
the pleasure of hitting the road on two wheels with a few friends to a friends
cabin on the lake. After the day exploring the area, over steak and a few beers I
had to ask if anyone knew of an investment that has appreciated at 16% a year
over the last eight. Of coarse the dentist among us knew as we talk about such
things but nobody else knew. The others kind of looked cockeyed at me when I
said physical gold in your hand. The pulp mill worker didn’t care much to talk
about anything but bikes, the retired cop is broke but the dentist knew and
knows where to put his money, the CSI investigator gave me a look only a true
investigator could. I am sure he’s on the case and will have to see that for
himself.
The point is not many people yet are investing in the metals market, but
they will. God knows they wish they had already, but that is besides the point.
The real moves are yet to come, and no matter what happens day to day I care
not, for the trend cannot be a ff top. As the great Jesse Livermore says; Know you’reffected indefinitely. ff or have it’s launch cancelled for another day.
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