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Latest Posts By ozone2002 - Supreme      About ozone2002
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27-Aug-2013 09:26 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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from CIMB, turning around after their last report which called for outperform..

We share Glaucus Research?s concerns about MINZ?s reliance on capital markets for cash generation and ballooning receivable days. We cease coverage of MINZ, with our last rating being Outperform with a target price of S$1.27 (5x CY14 P/E, its peer average).
 
What Happened
Glaucus Research, an independent US-based research house, this morning issued a sell report on MINZ, alluding to its reliance on debt & equity financing as a primary source of cash generation ballooning receivables ?fabricated? sales and ?suspicious? capex. MINZ?s stock subsequently tanked 50% and trading in its shares has been halted.   
 
What We Think
We have been sharing Glaucus?s concerns for some time, especially the first two. MINZ had issued new shares (98m) to Indofood on 15 Feb 13, at S$0.915 apiece or 0.7x its FY12 book value. It soon followed this up with an unsuccessful attempt to issue bonds on 8 Mar 13. We found this intensive capital-raising worrying. The company?s willingness to dilute EPS at such an unfavourable price suggests to us a desperate need for cash when this shouldn?t have been the case. Capex was supposed to be lower this year (according to guidance) with positive free cash flow anticipated by us. Further, Olympus Capital, one of its major shareholders before IPO, had disposed of its remaining 10.3% stake on 6 Dec 12. It is hard to believe management was not aware of both Indofood?s and Olympus Capital?s intentions, considering their transactions were back-to-back. If Indofood?s expertise had been what MINZ was solely after, management could have arranged for Indofood to take over Olympus?s stake. Pressure from investors to pay dividends probably weighed on the company. We sensed that it was going to pay dividends for the first time this quarter, which could have catalysed its share price hence, our previous Outperform. However, we believe raising equity from Indofood to pay dividends would have compromised the quality of any payout, as it could have represented a mere ?transfer? of cash. We were also worried by its spiking receivable days. FY12 receivable days were 85, up from 45 in FY10 and 43 in FY11. See our report: Look beyond the stellar earnings.   
 
What You Should Do
We are ceasing coverage of the stock.
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27-Aug-2013 09:18 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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all depends how CMZ handle this situation..

if interpreted to be good and allegations are false then once the flood gates open prices will move up frantically as shortist cover positions..

if otherwise then continue to freefall.. but this scenario has a smaller chance of happening.

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 27-Aug-2013 09:08) Posted:

Buy on panic, no risk no gain. I  may move in small position when it resume. Short sellers will chase up the price when covering it to take this big profit.

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27-Aug-2013 08:54 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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from Bloomberg, CMZ is going to review the report and sue the pants out of Glaucaus

Minzhong Drop Renews China Overseas Listing Woes: Southeast Asia

China Minzhong Food Corp. (MINZ) lost half its market value in less than two hours after short-seller Glaucus Research Group questioned the vegetable processor?s accounts, reviving investor concern about Chinese companies traded overseas.



Glaucus said in a report the Putian, China-based company had been ?significantly deceiving? regulators and investors, sending the stock 48 percent lower in Singapore trading yesterday and wiping S$318 million ($249 million) off its market value before it was suspended. Minzhong said it?s seeking legal opinion and will comment as soon as possible.

Minzhong is the latest target of short sellers betting against Chinese companies trading in markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and New York, even as five of the six analysts covering the stock recommend buying it. Minzhong is among the 143 China-based firms listed on Singapore?s S$967.4 billion stock market at the end of July, according to the exchange.

?The reputation of Chinese companies in Singapore has now rock-bottomed,? said Mou Hua Lee, Singapore-based analyst at CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. (CIMB) ?With these new allegations, it?s going to be a very long while before anyone trusts Chinese companies here.?

Minzhong shares were halted at 53 Singapore cents, after tumbling the most since the company?s listing in April 2010. Short interest in the vegetable processor rose to a record 7.2 percent of the outstanding stock on Aug. 19 from this year?s low of 3.8 percent in March, according to the most recent data from research company Markit Group Ltd.

Fabricated Sales



Singapore Exchange Ltd. queried Minzhong on the share price decline and will continue to closely monitor developments, according to an e-mailed statement.

The company said late yesterday it's reviewing the Glaucus report and will respond " shortly." It's also taking steps to defend its reputation and won't hesitate to take legal action, it said in an e-mailed statement.

Minzhong may have fabricated sales and payments to its largest supplier, doctored historical accounts and overstated capital spending, Glaucus said in the report. It also questioned the food processor?s reported receivables and cash balance.

?Evidence indicates that Minzhong fabricated sales to its top two customers, suggesting that the Company overstated revenues in its IPO prospectus by at least a third during the track record period,? Glaucus said, citing corporate registry records.

Avoid S-chips



At least 29 Chinese firms on Singapore?s exchange, where one in five stocks are China-based companies, have been halted or ordered to delist since 2008. The FTSE ST China Index of 37 Chinese stocks traded in Singapore, commonly known as S-chips, has lost 14 percent in the past six months, more than twice the 5.2 percent slide in the benchmark Straits Times Index. (FSSTI)

?We typically avoid S-chips,? Daphne Roth, head of Asia equity research at ABN Amro Private Bank, which oversees about $207 billion, said from Singapore. ?There is room for Chinese companies to improve corporate governance. That will help improve investor confidence.?

Minzhong?s biggest investor isn?t concerned. PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, the parent of Indonesia?s biggest instant-noodle maker and Minzhong?s largest shareholder, is comfortable with its investment, director Thomas Tjhie said yesterday by telephone from Jakarta.

Indofood, which doubled its stake in Minzhong to 29.3 percent in March, conducted due diligence on the company before it made its investment, Tjhie said, adding that he has spoken to Minzhong?s chief financial officer about the Glaucus report.

Response Needed



Minzhong needs to respond to the claims made by the Glaucus report, said Wei Bin, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.

?There?s still some value in the S-chips but we need to be conservative in ours views,? he said. ?I don?t have enough facts to prove the report right or wrong at this point.?

Other companies that have been the focus of reports by Glaucus include China Metal Recycling Holdings Ltd. (773) and China Medical Technologies Inc. The short-seller claims to ?help investors navigate treacherous financial waters in search of great investment opportunities,? according to its website.

Provisional liquidators were appointed to China Metal in July and its Hong Kong-traded stock has been suspended since January. China Medical filed for Chapter 15 foreign-firm bankruptcy protection in New York last year.

Olam Bets



The claims against Minzhong come less than a year after short-seller Carson Block said he was betting against Olam International Ltd. (OLAM), the Singapore-based commodity trader, sparking a slump in the stock. Block?s research firm Muddy Waters LLC later said Olam was likely to fail in a report. The commodity traded rejected the allegations.

Olam had recovered from the 7.5 percent slump after the report, rising as much as 9.2 percent as of May 22. Since the peak in the past year, the stock has dropped 20 percent, compared with the 5.7 percent decline in the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Commodity Producers index.

Muddy Waters has also targeted Chinese firms including Sino-Forest Corp., which plunged 74 percent before eventually filing for bankruptcy protection. Shares of New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. and Focus Media Holding Ltd., rebounded after initial slumps when Block questioned their accounting. Both companies have denied wrongdoing.
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26-Aug-2013 16:54 Golden Agri-Res   /   GoldenAgr       Go to Message
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Last:0.565     Vol:239558k     +0.04

nice price rise accompanied by abnormally high vol..

looking gd..

gd luck dyodd

 
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26-Aug-2013 16:34 SinoGrandnes   /   Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE       Go to Message
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Last:1.285     Vol:2157k     -0.105

sliding down..CMZ shortists now targeting Sinogrand?

ozone2002      ( Date: 26-Aug-2013 11:03) Posted:



Last:1.32     Vol:140k     -0.07

low volume done so far.. more downside to come if CMZ shorters switch from CMZ to sino..

next target Yamada..

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26-Aug-2013 16:27 Kori   /   Competitor of Yongnam       Go to Message
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Time: 3:46PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: Kori(5VC)
Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume
Last Done: $0.455

2 million shares done.. looking gd

gd luck dyodd
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26-Aug-2013 15:39 Yamada Green Res   /   Yamada-Since it IPO at 0.22c-good response       Go to Message
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Last:0.22     Vol:2015k     -0.005

volume building up.. already 2million done .. looks like will follow the same direction as Minzhong
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26-Aug-2013 14:19 SinoGrandnes   /   Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE       Go to Message
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Time: 1:54PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: SinoGrandnes(JS5)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $1.3
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26-Aug-2013 11:40 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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could the short sellers moved over to Indofood?

sunview      ( Date: 26-Aug-2013 11:22) Posted:



Wow, did not expect the Glaucus report cause such damage. Now stock halted.

Some funds lose big ::

Franklin Resources holding 10.91%

Indofood holding 29.33%.

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26-Aug-2013 11:13 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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50c dropped 50%

 
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26-Aug-2013 11:08 Yamada Green Res   /   Yamada-Since it IPO at 0.22c-good response       Go to Message
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unaffected by CMZ free fall..

might be the next target  for short sellers since price unchanged..

gd luck dyodd
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26-Aug-2013 11:03 SinoGrandnes   /   Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE       Go to Message
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Last:1.32     Vol:140k     -0.07

low volume done so far.. more downside to come if CMZ shorters switch from CMZ to sino..

next target Yamada..
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26-Aug-2013 11:00 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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super free fall now 76c.. drop 25%

Y CMZ doesn't halt the share and clarify?

like whole Singapore shorting this stock..
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26-Aug-2013 10:57 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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80c..20% drop..
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26-Aug-2013 10:47 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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Singapore Daily
China Minzhong: Earnings Preview Buy TP $1.36
MINZ SP | Mkt Cap USD520m | ADTV USD2.4m
Ø  China Minzhong will publish its 4QFY6/13 results this Thursday before market. We are looking at revenue of RMB685m and net profit of RMB164m. Possible YoY and QoQ decline are due to seasonality reason.
Ø  In our view, there are two short term catalysts for Minzhong: 1) supply contracts from Indofood and 2) first dividends payout since IPO, which could help to argue for a re-rating case for the stock.
Ø  Recent developments of the company include the first-time credit rating (Ba3) given by Moody?s and the issuance of USD150m syndication loan underwritten by Citibank and Standard Chartered. In our view, this could help to rebuild investors? confidence. Maintain BUY and TP SGD1.36, pegged to historical average of 5x FY6/14 PER.

 

from ur friendly Malaysian brokerage house Maybank.. issue this morning..
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26-Aug-2013 10:44 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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Last:0.86     Vol:10904k     -0.155

15% down

ozone2002      ( Date: 26-Aug-2013 10:32) Posted:

drop 10%.. now 90.5

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26-Aug-2013 10:32 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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drop 10%.. now 90.5
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26-Aug-2013 10:30 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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Last:0.95     Vol:7072k     -0.065

panic @ the disco.. lowest 92c..

 
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26-Aug-2013 10:17 JB Foods   /   JB Foods       Go to Message
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Last:0.315     Vol:122k     +0.005

Sam Goi buy price is @ 27c..

q-ing below 30c..

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Jun-2013 10:26) Posted:



buy value don't chase prices.. gd luck dyodd

DBS

JB Foods expects to report a net loss for the Group for

2Q2013 and 1H2013. The expected loss is mainly

attributable to the continued unusual cocoa market

consolidation that was previously highlighted in the

Group?s 1Q2013 results announcement. The unusual

market consolidation has further lowered the average

selling price of the Group?s cocoa powder. The cocoa

powder industry is dominated by a few major players and

any consolidation in the industry would have an impact

on cocoa powder prices.


ozone2002      ( Date: 14-May-2013 09:03) Posted:

can buy cheaper than Sam Goi? don't like to pay so big a premium..


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26-Aug-2013 10:05 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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Time: 10:04AM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: ChinaMinzhong(K2N)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $0.975
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