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Latest Posts By richtan - Supreme      About richtan
First   < Newer   201-220 of 3268   Older>   Last  

08-Oct-2009 12:07 GLD USD   /   Gold going up this year?       Go to Message
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Read this from CNA forum, copy n paste here for your info:

The Original



Joined: 25 Apr 2008
Posts: 1813
PostPosted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:56 am    Post subject: Gold bubble? Reply with quote
Can you believe it? They go to Jon "Tokyo Rose" Nadler, the dimwit, for a fundamental gold analysis … to a guy who has been wrong most of the way up. On the other hand, they went to the right guy in John Hathaway, who is a good fellow. John sent one of his colleagues to Gold Rush 21 a little over 4 years ago. Now, John "GETS IT."

So does Bill H:

Gold bubble?

To all; a very good friend just pointed out to me the most comical of occurrences! I should not say comical, it is actually tragic. Just turn on CNBC and wait 5 minutes or less and you will hear "are we experiencing a Gold bubble?". These are the very same boneheads that were buying at the tops of: the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, the credit bubble in 2007 and don't currently see the U.S. Treasury bubble! They never saw any of it coming and didn't realize it while it was happening but they see this one? Yep, Gold is a bubble alright, it's trading at less than 50% of it's inflation adjusted 1980 highs and must be a bubble because it just made a new high after an 18 month consolidation!

How can these bubbleheads spot a bubble anyway? Alan Greenspan told us we can't spot a bubble until it pops, right? Just to get to levels where the supposed U.S. Gold reserves would cover the now "hidden" M3 number, Gold would need to be north of $100,000. What Dollar number would be needed if the U.S. has already sold 80-90% of their Gold? $1 million per ounce? I hope these goatheads don't believe their own bullcrap and actually short Gold because not having any will be bad enough as in a life sentence, being short is a financial death sentence! Anyone who watches CNBC and follows their advice will get exactly what they have coming to them.

Shame on you CNBC, we are entering the greatest currency crisis in history and you are trying to scare Jane and Joe public from the only form of financial protection! You are a bunch of evil JERKS. Regards, Bill H.

Goatheads they are. If you don’t know anything about The Gold Cartel’s price suppression scheme, which kept gold at artificially low prices for more than a decade, then you don’t understand the gold market and will never be able to analyze it correctly. Wake up goatheads!
The yield on the 10 yr T note dropped to 3.18%.

The dollar rose .16 to 76.46. The Orwellians are doing all they can to keep the dollar above 76. The euro lost .0043 to 1.4678. The pound and yen were little changed.

Crude oil fell $1.31 per barrel to $69.57.

The CRB lost 1.10 to 258.37.

More gold goodies:

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Has the Manager retreated?

Monday’s up $13.50 close in Dec gold saw a 2,547 lot (7.92 tonne) increase in open interest according to the NYMEX website (apparently nothing was distributed to the wire services). This number deserves some consideration. It is low, given the size of the rise. Possibly it implies liquidation by badly singed bears. More likely, and more importantly, it indicates a decision by the omnipresent Seller to withdraw to higher levels.

Of course this thought is stimulated by Tuesday’s action, which from the point of view of gold’s friends was a Day To Remember. Dec gold saw a +$27.20 high and settled up $21.90. Estimated volume was a huge 192,206 contracts. A sell off attempt at the close has subsequently been completely eradicated.

The gold shares responded appropriately: the HUI closed up 7% and the XAU up 6.12%.. The CEF bullion vehicle also closed at a respectable (but not exuberant) 11% premium.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus added 2 points to 88%. This sounds high, but gold blow-offs usually see readings in the 90s for several days. The HGNSI picked up 14.2 points to 32.2%. Mark Hulbert discussed his indicator, drawing Bullish conclusions, yesterday:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contarian-analysis-of-current-gold-market-2009-10-06

"The HGNSI's current level of just 18% is amazing from another perspective as well: Even though gold is within a few dollars of a record, all-time high, the average gold timer is mostly in cash. Clearly, there is no irrational exuberance in the gold pits."

This indicator has been as high as 89.56%. The GLD ETF added 2.44029 tonnes to 1100.5132 tonnes.

At this point it is worth reviewing Martin Pring’s late August discussion of the long term gold chart situation (sound!):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqu4L9-lxVE&feature=channel

Local Vietnam gold stood at a $3.96 discount to world gold of $1,038.70 early this morning (Monday $3.09 premium/$1,019.09).

***
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 11:51 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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Midas does not just depend on trains, read extract from below:

Life after trains:

Over the longer term, management will look into other feasible, promising industries such as aviation to continue its growth.

I had been posting almost everyday the below writeup from Kim Eng:

Midas – Company update (James KOH 64321431)

Previous day closing price: $0.865


Recommendation: Buy (maintained)


Target price: $1.15 (Previously $0.985)

Still packing the theatre

We recently hosted a roadshow for Midas in the US, which was very well-received by funds.

The exciting growth prospects within the China rail infrastructure space continue to capture the
imagination, with the main discussion points being the competition within this space, the sustainability of growth for Midas and the progression on expansion.

A smaller share of the bigger pie

While Midas still holds a clear lead in terms of certification and track record,
management expects competition to intensify, with listed peers such as Shandong Nanshan (Shanghai) and Zhongwang (HK) stating their intentions to break into this market.

Going forward, they believe achieving a lower 50-60% market share of this growing pie would be a more reasonable target, which will still ensure strong growth.

Life after trains

Improving the rail infrastructure network is an important government initiative, with current directives providing clear visibility over the next 2-3 years. Even subsequent to the stimulus package, we expect this program to continue.

Over the longer term, management will look into other feasible, promising industries such as aviation to continue its growth.

Progress on the installation of 4th and 5th extrusion lines

We now expect the 4th and 5th extrusion lines to come on stream by 2Q09 and 4Q09, earlier than our earlier estimates.

Our model factors in Midas winning a 50%-60% market share of the upcoming round of orders, which is twice the size of the first round. This will already keep all its five extrusion lines busy at about 75% utilisation.

Much more tracks to run

We adjust our earnings to take into account higher effective capacity in FY10 and higher tax rates in FY11.

We now peg our target price to 20X FY10E.

We believe the Chinese rail industry is still at its early-mid cycle.

With the Ministry of Railway due to announce the 2nd round of high-speed train orders, we expect orders to flow down to Midas within 3-4 months
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 11:48 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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x 0 		From OCBC Investment Research:

Midas Holdings:

Evaluating listing in HK.

Maintain BUY.

Midas Holdings (Midas) announced today that it is planning a secondary listing of its shares on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of HongKong.

Midas has appointed Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) to assist the group in evaluating and preparing for this listing.

Mr Patrick Chew, CEO, says that Midas "is now ready to take Midas towards the next development phase and is optimistic that a listing on both the Singapore and HongKong bourses will allow Midas to tap into a wider investor base, increase liquidity and enhance the stock value".

Hong Kong valuations tend to be richer and this could bode well for dual-listed Singapore stocks.

Maintain BUY, fair value of S$1.05.

(Kelly Chia)
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 11:47 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
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We remain positive on Midas given its robust
growth prospects, underpinned by its robust order
books of RMB1.4bln as well as the robust prospects
of its 32.5% owned subsidiary company, also
underpinned by solid order books of RMB4.5bln.


And this in turn reflects the government’s active
efforts to support the railcar industry in China to
reduce transportation bottlenecks as well as reduce
transportation costs. Rail transportation is much
cheaper than air travel and is much safer and causes
much less pollution than automotive transportation.


The company will be increasing their production
capacity by 200% in the next 2 years to cope with
the strong order flows. Its PE of 20x remains
undemanding compared to its expected growth rate
of 40-50%.
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 11:45 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		I had been posting almost everyday the below writeup from OCBC Investment Research:

Midas's firm order book of 1.4 billion yuan (S$296 million),  more anticipated contract wins in Sept - Nov 2009... will serve to under-gird valuations"
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 10:31 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend (1) ·

Is October correction inevitable?

Commentary: Not if you study patterns of crash years

By Ethan Anderson

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (MarketWatch) -- Most investors seem braced for a big correction, but in my experience the majority is usually wrong.

In order to predict the future, one must consider the past and research similar market cycles to come up with a probable forecast for the future. After studying comparable periods to the one we are experiencing today, investors will realize that an October correction is not likely.

Consider the following:

We have not yet recovered fully from 2008. The market rebound after the crash of 1987 did not see a correction of 10% until 1990, which is more than two years later. Moreover, that correction was after "only" a 35% drop from top to bottom. At present, we are only six months removed from a 55% drop in the market.

   
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.

• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
•  Eliades: March lows may come back  
•  Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks   
/conga/story/2009/10/trading-strategies.html 31978


October may be a negative month, but it's usually more in the range of 3% to 5%. The Octobers of 2008 and 1987 were the two biggest October sell-offs of the last 30 years, but each was preceded by a negative September. This year, September was positive.

During past October sell-offs, the month didn't represent the first wave of the attack. May and June often paved the way. October then stepped up to wipe out the survivors who believed the worst was over. Again, we did not see major selloffs in May or in June. In fact, this past June marked the fourth consecutive month of gains.

If we do sink lower in October, the catalyst can easily be the lack of top-line growth in earnings reports. However, if top-line growth is present, it can be another factor driving the market up in October.

To play devil's advocate, I must point out that six months after the market bottomed in 1987, the market was 21% higher. After the 2002 bottom, it was 24% higher. Today, we are 58% higher than we were in March. This is a significant jump.

To prepare investments for October, consider diversifying with a prudent amount of truly non-correlated asset classes like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), commodities such as precious metals, managed futures and inverse funds.

If you have already pulled significant assets out of the market and are sitting on the sidelines, get back in but not all at once. Dollar-cost-average back into a diversified portfolio in order to avoid buying in on the worst day of the year, and consider tactical asset allocation programs for a small percentage of your portfolio.

On the fixed income side, TIPS is a good way to get some income and inflation protection. The Fidelity Floating Rate Bond Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!ffrhx (FFRHX 9.32, -0.01, -0.11%) still looks attractive. Blackrock Global Allocation /quotes/comstock/10r!mdlox (MDLOX 17.30, -0.25, -1.43%) is a wonderful fund with multiple asset classes.

For equities, Tom Soviero and some of the rest of the folks over at Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!flvix (FLVIX 25.65, -1.12, -4.18%) are some of the best in the business, as is the team running the Kinetics Paradigm Fund. /quotes/comstock/10r!wwnpx (WWNPX 19.19, -0.57, -2.89%)

In conclusion, it is inevitable that a correction will occur in the market at some point, but research shows that an October correction is unlikely. A 3% to 5% pullback is conceivable for October, but do not prepare investments for a major selloff. You will regret it.

Ethan Anderson is a senior portfolio manager with Rehmann , one of the largest accounting, financial services and consulting firms in the Midwest. Anderson sits on Rehmann Financial's Investment Research Committee and has been recognized as a "5 star" portfolio manager by Morningstar Inc



MsAloevera      ( Date: 08-Oct-2009 10:22) Posted:



Back in mid July , was too quick to take profits..missed out mega profits..

Now having october jitters since many says oct is worst performing mth of the yr.. and indeed market did correct.

Well, vested and waiting =)
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 10:28 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0 		Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend ·

Are you in the rally, or out of it?

Commentary: It's time to make a choice

By Tom Lydon

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- These days, no matter what the markets do, there are still those naysayers who are sticking to their guns with admirable tenacity.

Heard any of these before?

"This rally is overheated."

"Any day now, the bear is going to be back."

"There's no way this is going to last. I'm staying out of it."

Despite a rally off the market's March 9 low that has continued with just a few pauses and hiccups, the skeptics are still out in force. How history repeats itself.

   
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.

• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
•  Eliades: March lows may come back  
•  Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks   
/conga/story/2009/10/trading-strategies.html 31978


Following the bear market of 2000-2002, investors had a similar tone. Everyone said the 2003 rally couldn't continue and that, sooner or later, the markets would go "splat" once again. But that scenario never materialized. Instead, major markets recovered nicely in the last three quarters of 2003 and made those looking for an September/October correction look silly.

Will this time be different? Is this rally for suckers?

When this recession hit, investors began a mass exodus from the market that ultimately sank the major indexes to their lowest levels in nearly a decade. By 2008, they were practically trampling each other in a race to the exits as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed and the government stepped in with a massive bailout package designed to prop up what was clearly a critically ill economy.

Since the market's low earlier this year, investors have been slowly but surely returning. Despite how many rally doubters remain, some of them already have thrown up the white flag of surrender and taken equity positions. Yet most investors don't believe this recovery is real.

Missed opportunity



Still, to sit out and pooh-pooh the rally is to miss a major opportunity for gains, as well as a missed opportunity to make up what was lost in their battered portfolios. Investors hiding in the safety of money market funds aren't making anything from those paltry yields.

The markets have been steadily improving for much of this year, and all signs say that while the recovery may be a long, slow one, it will still be a recovery.

Why? There's $4 trillion on the sidelines, and as that money trickles back in, the rally should continue. Earnings season is just around the corner, and while many corporate forecasts are on the cautious side, their actual numbers could be better than expected

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the recession is "very likely over," and the Fed also is keeping interest rates at record lows for now in order to continue the pace of the recovery.

While a full recovery in the United States could be months away, there are many areas that have been delivering handsome returns for months.

Big gains



It's important to pick your spots so you don't miss opportunities to participate in potential long-term uptrends. In this recovery, keep an eye on both those areas that are likely to perform well as countries begin to build up again, as well as those areas that were hardest-hit in the recession:

Emerging markets: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets /quotes/comstock/13*!eem/quotes/nls/eem (EEM 37.95, +0.10, +0.26%) is up 84.1% off the market low

Steel: Market Vectors Steel /quotes/comstock/13*!slx/quotes/nls/slx (SLX 50.31, -2.42, -4.59%) is up nearly 130% since the low

Basic materials: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials /quotes/comstock/13*!iym/quotes/nls/iym (IYM 52.62, -2.18, -3.98%) is up nearly 90% since the low

Banks: Financial Select Sector SPDRs /quotes/comstock/13*!xlf/quotes/nls/xlf (XLF 14.29, +0.01, +0.07%) is up almost 140% since the low

Real estate: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate /quotes/comstock/13*!iyr/quotes/nls/iyr (IYR 40.91, +0.05, +0.12%) is up almost 90% from the low

There's no way to predict whether this rally really has legs longer than a supermodel's, or whether it's going to stop short tomorrow. If you make the decision to begin taking part in it today, look for those spots trading above their 200-day moving averages and protect yourself on the downside with a stop loss.

Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Tom Lydon is the editor of ETF Trends and president of Global Trends Investments, an investment advisory firm. Website is at www.etftrends.com .



MsAloevera      ( Date: 08-Oct-2009 10:22) Posted:



Back in mid July , was too quick to take profits..missed out mega profits..

Now having october jitters since many says oct is worst performing mth of the yr.. and indeed market did correct.

Well, vested and waiting =)
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 10:26 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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x 0

Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend ·

No reason to be spooked by October this year

Commentary: But markets should be wary of Iran

By Robert Maltbie

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- While some might get spooked by an often-volatile October, signs are that the markets are in strong shape.

Just the facts: My indicators are as bullish as they have been since March 2003, preceding a 26% upside surge in equity averages that year. Four out of five of our market indicators are bullish and one is neutral.

Let's start with the bear case:

The market is fully valued at 17 times earnings and it is too late to get in the market. But price-to-earnings is a backward-looking measure. If we use projected forward estimates, a different picture emerges. If we value the S&P 500 using 2010 estimates, which call for a 20% or greater increase in earnings, we find a more reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 14, far below 19 where the market topped in 2007.

   
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.

• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
•  Eliades: March lows may come back  
•  Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks   
/conga/story/2009/10/trading-strategies.html 31978

As for our neutral indicators, they are "sentiment" indicators showing that volatility and possibly fear have greatly diminished. This is evidenced by the CBOE volatility index /quotes/comstock/20m!i:vix (VIX 28.27, +2.66, +10.39%) which has retreated to 23 from a high of more than 80 a year ago when we were in free fall. Offsetting this is a bullish AAII pundit survey showing investment advisors are bearish, perhaps bracing for "seasonal harshness," by 39% bulls to 45% bears.

Our remaining indicators are all currently solidly bullish -- technical indicators, monetary data, liquidity measures and valuations. Our Ouiji board swigglies and charts show positive, lead by a strong breadth and upside volume that is recently supported by expanding new 52-week high-to-low ratio.

A final anchor of positive support is that the Dow, the S&P and Nasdaq all have broken decisively above 200-day moving averages and held their ground. These are characteristics of a market with healthy internals, good days are better and exceed bad days and more stocks are starting to participate.

Monetary Indicators: This is our most powerful market force, also called "Don't fight the Fed." Money stock is expanding at near 8% annual rate. The real rate is higher considered against the backdrop of a deflating economy which is what we have had for nearly two years now.

The yield curve is also very steep and positive in its slope. This is a powerful 1-2 punch for the market, the fed is pumping money into the markets and economy and rates are staying low. These two factors have been important catalysts of every major bull market since 1920.

Liquidity or the directionality of money flows is another bullish sign that is just getting started. After freezing up with the cataclysmic events hitting markets over the last year, corporate M&A is rebounding, stock buybacks are returning, and money is starting to flow back into equity funds, including exchange-traded and hedge funds.

Big-time mergers by Walt Disney Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!dis/quotes/nls/dis (DIS 27.46, +0.10, +0.37%) , Abbott Labs /quotes/comstock/13*!abt/quotes/nls/abt (ABT 49.47, +0.79, +1.62%) and Dell Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!dell/quotes/nls/dell (DELL 15.26, +0.12, +0.79%) are starting up again, as these and buybacks have pulsed to nearly $50 billion in September. Meanwhile, money markets have experienced a $54 billion outflow lately.

These add up to more than $100 billion in possible additional demand for equities. Offsets of insider selling and IPO issuance although increasing, are still at non-threatening or neutral levels.

Last but not least, we must not forget valuations. This is also bullish both on absolute and relative levels. While we are at the onset of a new recovery in earnings, more stable indicators such as market capitalization-to-GDP and price-to-sales provide evidence of reasonably cheap valuations.

The market is at a 20% discount to GDP and relative parity to sales. In 2000, the market traded at 1.8 times GDP and the price-to-sales ratio was 2.3. It seems we've worked off a lot of excess over the last 10 years.

Our relative valuation measures are positive lead by an earnings yield to quality corporate bond yield ratio of 1.2, a spread last see in 1982. Stockowners are getting paid or reinvesting back in the company more than high-grade bond owners, and stockowners should see this earnings stream significantly grow over the course of he next two years or so.

Also, cash dividends on the S&P at a 2.1% tax-favored yield far exceed treasury yields out to 10 years. Cap this off with the fact that the Leading Economic Indicators index is now at 104 following four successive monthly increases.

With easy earnings comparisons and no inflation on the near term horizon we expect the Dow Industrials to break 10,000 in October -- barring geopolitical events.

Score Percent Current
MARKET SENTIMENT 50.00 0.10 5.00
TECHNICALS 71.88 0.20 14.38
LIQUIDITY 62.50 0.20 12.50
VALUATION 78.13 0.15 11.72
EARNINGS MOMENTUM 70.00 0.15 10.50
MONETARY POLICY 77.78 0.20 15.56
1.00 69.65

Robert Maltbie is a CFA and principal of Millennium Asset Management, a California-based registered investment advisor that provides investment management services to high net worth investors. He is also Managing Director of Singular Research, an alternative independent research provider focused on small cap stocks for institutional investors. See his Web site at www.stockjock.com.



MsAloevera      ( Date: 08-Oct-2009 10:22) Posted:



Back in mid July , was too quick to take profits..missed out mega profits..

Now having october jitters since many says oct is worst performing mth of the yr.. and indeed market did correct.

Well, vested and waiting =)
Good Post  Bad Post 
08-Oct-2009 10:23 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 1
x 1

"Trade Summary" at this point in time shows extremely heavy buying-up (more than doubled the sell-down), but of course, nothing is guaranteed, may change, so dyodd n BOSAYOR:

 

5GJ (AusGroup)
 WEIGHTED AVG PRICE :  0.7022   LAST DONE PRICE :  0.700 
 SPREAD/PRICE RATIO :  0.0000   AVG TRADE SIZE :  78.376 
< />
Last Trades Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol
0.690 2 16 16 0 0
0.695 49 1,701 909 0 792
0.700 30 3,368 1,769 0 1,599
0.705 26 3,356 183 0 3,173
0.710 18 1,356 0 0 1,356
TOTAL 125 9,797 2,877 0 6,920



tankuku      ( Date: 08-Oct-2009 10:09) Posted:



Heavy buying up. Do vest and good luck.

 

10:08:17 0.705 500,000 Bought from Seller
10:08:10 0.705 70,000 Bought from Seller
10:07:16 0.705 10,000 Bought from Seller
10:05:53 0.705 800,000 Bought from Seller
10:05:03 0.705 20,000 Bought from Seller

Good Post  Bad Post 
07-Oct-2009 16:33 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
x 0
x 0

Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend ·

No reason to be spooked by October this year

Commentary: But markets should be wary of Iran

By Robert Maltbie

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- While some might get spooked by an often-volatile October, signs are that the markets are in strong shape.

Just the facts: My indicators are as bullish as they have been since March 2003, preceding a 26% upside surge in equity averages that year. Four out of five of our market indicators are bullish and one is neutral.

Let's start with the bear case:

The market is fully valued at 17 times earnings and it is too late to get in the market. But price-to-earnings is a backward-looking measure. If we use projected forward estimates, a different picture emerges. If we value the S&P 500 using 2010 estimates, which call for a 20% or greater increase in earnings, we find a more reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 14, far below 19 where the market topped in 2007.

   
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.

• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
•  Eliades: March lows may come back  
•  Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks   
/conga/story/2009/10/trading-strategies.html 31978

As for our neutral indicators, they are "sentiment" indicators showing that volatility and possibly fear have greatly diminished. This is evidenced by the CBOE volatility index /quotes/comstock/20m!i:vix (VIX 28.27, +2.66, +10.39%) which has retreated to 23 from a high of more than 80 a year ago when we were in free fall. Offsetting this is a bullish AAII pundit survey showing investment advisors are bearish, perhaps bracing for "seasonal harshness," by 39% bulls to 45% bears.

Our remaining indicators are all currently solidly bullish -- technical indicators, monetary data, liquidity measures and valuations. Our Ouiji board swigglies and charts show positive, lead by a strong breadth and upside volume that is recently supported by expanding new 52-week high-to-low ratio.

A final anchor of positive support is that the Dow, the S&P and Nasdaq all have broken decisively above 200-day moving averages and held their ground. These are characteristics of a market with healthy internals, good days are better and exceed bad days and more stocks are starting to participate.

Monetary Indicators: This is our most powerful market force, also called "Don't fight the Fed." Money stock is expanding at near 8% annual rate. The real rate is higher considered against the backdrop of a deflating economy which is what we have had for nearly two years now.

The yield curve is also very steep and positive in its slope. This is a powerful 1-2 punch for the market, the fed is pumping money into the markets and economy and rates are staying low. These two factors have been important catalysts of every major bull market since 1920.

Liquidity or the directionality of money flows is another bullish sign that is just getting started. After freezing up with the cataclysmic events hitting markets over the last year, corporate M&A is rebounding, stock buybacks are returning, and money is starting to flow back into equity funds, including exchange-traded and hedge funds.

Big-time mergers by Walt Disney Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!dis/quotes/nls/dis (DIS 27.46, +0.10, +0.37%) , Abbott Labs /quotes/comstock/13*!abt/quotes/nls/abt (ABT 49.47, +0.79, +1.62%) and Dell Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!dell/quotes/nls/dell (DELL 15.26, +0.12, +0.79%) are starting up again, as these and buybacks have pulsed to nearly $50 billion in September. Meanwhile, money markets have experienced a $54 billion outflow lately.

These add up to more than $100 billion in possible additional demand for equities. Offsets of insider selling and IPO issuance although increasing, are still at non-threatening or neutral levels.

Last but not least, we must not forget valuations. This is also bullish both on absolute and relative levels. While we are at the onset of a new recovery in earnings, more stable indicators such as market capitalization-to-GDP and price-to-sales provide evidence of reasonably cheap valuations.

The market is at a 20% discount to GDP and relative parity to sales. In 2000, the market traded at 1.8 times GDP and the price-to-sales ratio was 2.3. It seems we've worked off a lot of excess over the last 10 years.

Our relative valuation measures are positive lead by an earnings yield to quality corporate bond yield ratio of 1.2, a spread last see in 1982. Stockowners are getting paid or reinvesting back in the company more than high-grade bond owners, and stockowners should see this earnings stream significantly grow over the course of he next two years or so.

Also, cash dividends on the S&P at a 2.1% tax-favored yield far exceed treasury yields out to 10 years. Cap this off with the fact that the Leading Economic Indicators index is now at 104 following four successive monthly increases.

With easy earnings comparisons and no inflation on the near term horizon we expect the Dow Industrials to break 10,000 in October -- barring geopolitical events.

Score Percent Current
MARKET SENTIMENT 50.00 0.10 5.00
TECHNICALS 71.88 0.20 14.38
LIQUIDITY 62.50 0.20 12.50
VALUATION 78.13 0.15 11.72
EARNINGS MOMENTUM 70.00 0.15 10.50
MONETARY POLICY 77.78 0.20 15.56
1.00 69.65

Robert Maltbie is a CFA and principal of Millennium Asset Management, a California-based registered investment advisor that provides investment management services to high net worth investors. He is also Managing Director of Singular Research, an alternative independent research provider focused on small cap stocks for institutional investors. See his Web site at www.stockjock.com.



ozone2002      ( Date: 07-Oct-2009 16:22) Posted:



pple forget that Oct is a bad month..after all the "economic good news" churned out by the media

 
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07-Oct-2009 16:29 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
x 1
x 1 		Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend ·

Are you in the rally, or out of it?

Commentary: It's time to make a choice

By Tom Lydon

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- These days, no matter what the markets do, there are still those naysayers who are sticking to their guns with admirable tenacity.

Heard any of these before?

"This rally is overheated."

"Any day now, the bear is going to be back."

"There's no way this is going to last. I'm staying out of it."

Despite a rally off the market's March 9 low that has continued with just a few pauses and hiccups, the skeptics are still out in force. How history repeats itself.

   
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.

• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
•  Eliades: March lows may come back  
•  Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks   
/conga/story/2009/10/trading-strategies.html 31978


Following the bear market of 2000-2002, investors had a similar tone. Everyone said the 2003 rally couldn't continue and that, sooner or later, the markets would go "splat" once again. But that scenario never materialized. Instead, major markets recovered nicely in the last three quarters of 2003 and made those looking for an September/October correction look silly.

Will this time be different? Is this rally for suckers?

When this recession hit, investors began a mass exodus from the market that ultimately sank the major indexes to their lowest levels in nearly a decade. By 2008, they were practically trampling each other in a race to the exits as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed and the government stepped in with a massive bailout package designed to prop up what was clearly a critically ill economy.

Since the market's low earlier this year, investors have been slowly but surely returning. Despite how many rally doubters remain, some of them already have thrown up the white flag of surrender and taken equity positions. Yet most investors don't believe this recovery is real.

Missed opportunity



Still, to sit out and pooh-pooh the rally is to miss a major opportunity for gains, as well as a missed opportunity to make up what was lost in their battered portfolios. Investors hiding in the safety of money market funds aren't making anything from those paltry yields.

The markets have been steadily improving for much of this year, and all signs say that while the recovery may be a long, slow one, it will still be a recovery.

Why? There's $4 trillion on the sidelines, and as that money trickles back in, the rally should continue. Earnings season is just around the corner, and while many corporate forecasts are on the cautious side, their actual numbers could be better than expected

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the recession is "very likely over," and the Fed also is keeping interest rates at record lows for now in order to continue the pace of the recovery.

While a full recovery in the United States could be months away, there are many areas that have been delivering handsome returns for months.

Big gains



It's important to pick your spots so you don't miss opportunities to participate in potential long-term uptrends. In this recovery, keep an eye on both those areas that are likely to perform well as countries begin to build up again, as well as those areas that were hardest-hit in the recession:

Emerging markets: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets /quotes/comstock/13*!eem/quotes/nls/eem (EEM 37.95, +0.10, +0.26%) is up 84.1% off the market low

Steel: Market Vectors Steel /quotes/comstock/13*!slx/quotes/nls/slx (SLX 50.31, -2.42, -4.59%) is up nearly 130% since the low

Basic materials: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials /quotes/comstock/13*!iym/quotes/nls/iym (IYM 52.62, -2.18, -3.98%) is up nearly 90% since the low

Banks: Financial Select Sector SPDRs /quotes/comstock/13*!xlf/quotes/nls/xlf (XLF 14.29, +0.01, +0.07%) is up almost 140% since the low

Real estate: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate /quotes/comstock/13*!iyr/quotes/nls/iyr (IYR 40.91, +0.05, +0.12%) is up almost 90% from the low

There's no way to predict whether this rally really has legs longer than a supermodel's, or whether it's going to stop short tomorrow. If you make the decision to begin taking part in it today, look for those spots trading above their 200-day moving averages and protect yourself on the downside with a stop loss.

Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Tom Lydon is the editor of ETF Trends and president of Global Trends Investments, an investment advisory firm. Website is at www.etftrends.com .



ozone2002      ( Date: 07-Oct-2009 16:22) Posted:



pple forget that Oct is a bad month..after all the "economic good news" churned out by the media

 
Good Post  Bad Post 
07-Oct-2009 16:26 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend (1) ·

Is October correction inevitable?

Commentary: Not if you study patterns of crash years

By Ethan Anderson

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (MarketWatch) -- Most investors seem braced for a big correction, but in my experience the majority is usually wrong.

In order to predict the future, one must consider the past and research similar market cycles to come up with a probable forecast for the future. After studying comparable periods to the one we are experiencing today, investors will realize that an October correction is not likely.

Consider the following:

We have not yet recovered fully from 2008. The market rebound after the crash of 1987 did not see a correction of 10% until 1990, which is more than two years later. Moreover, that correction was after "only" a 35% drop from top to bottom. At present, we are only six months removed from a 55% drop in the market.

   
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.

• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
•  Eliades: March lows may come back  
•  Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks   
/conga/story/2009/10/trading-strategies.html 31978


October may be a negative month, but it's usually more in the range of 3% to 5%. The Octobers of 2008 and 1987 were the two biggest October sell-offs of the last 30 years, but each was preceded by a negative September. This year, September was positive.

During past October sell-offs, the month didn't represent the first wave of the attack. May and June often paved the way. October then stepped up to wipe out the survivors who believed the worst was over. Again, we did not see major selloffs in May or in June. In fact, this past June marked the fourth consecutive month of gains.

If we do sink lower in October, the catalyst can easily be the lack of top-line growth in earnings reports. However, if top-line growth is present, it can be another factor driving the market up in October.

To play devil's advocate, I must point out that six months after the market bottomed in 1987, the market was 21% higher. After the 2002 bottom, it was 24% higher. Today, we are 58% higher than we were in March. This is a significant jump.

To prepare investments for October, consider diversifying with a prudent amount of truly non-correlated asset classes like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), commodities such as precious metals, managed futures and inverse funds.

If you have already pulled significant assets out of the market and are sitting on the sidelines, get back in but not all at once. Dollar-cost-average back into a diversified portfolio in order to avoid buying in on the worst day of the year, and consider tactical asset allocation programs for a small percentage of your portfolio.

On the fixed income side, TIPS is a good way to get some income and inflation protection. The Fidelity Floating Rate Bond Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!ffrhx (FFRHX 9.32, -0.01, -0.11%) still looks attractive. Blackrock Global Allocation /quotes/comstock/10r!mdlox (MDLOX 17.30, -0.25, -1.43%) is a wonderful fund with multiple asset classes.

For equities, Tom Soviero and some of the rest of the folks over at Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!flvix (FLVIX 25.65, -1.12, -4.18%) are some of the best in the business, as is the team running the Kinetics Paradigm Fund. /quotes/comstock/10r!wwnpx (WWNPX 19.19, -0.57, -2.89%)

In conclusion, it is inevitable that a correction will occur in the market at some point, but research shows that an October correction is unlikely. A 3% to 5% pullback is conceivable for October, but do not prepare investments for a major selloff. You will regret it.

Ethan Anderson is a senior portfolio manager with Rehmann , one of the largest accounting, financial services and consulting firms in the Midwest. Anderson sits on Rehmann Financial's Investment Research Committee and has been recognized as a "5 star" portfolio manager by Morningstar Inc



ozone2002      ( Date: 07-Oct-2009 16:22) Posted:



pple forget that Oct is a bad month..after all the "economic good news" churned out by the media

 
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07-Oct-2009 14:07 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 2
x 2 		Smiley Wow!! very good direct translation man

freeme      ( Date: 07-Oct-2009 12:34) Posted:

slow and steady.. b4 correction its above 90cts n at the same time they announe getting contract that will boast their earnings. smelly smelly also worth above 90cts.
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07-Oct-2009 12:23 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		The gap on 2/10 will be closed once it closed at 0.715
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07-Oct-2009 11:47 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 0
x 0

Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
 
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

Good Post  Bad Post 
07-Oct-2009 11:41 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 0
x 0

Below is my long-term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
 
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

 

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07-Oct-2009 11:37 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 0
x 0

Today's vol as at this point in time had aredi exceeded yesterday's vol n "Trade Summary" at this point in time shows extremely heavy buying-up (almost doubled the sell-down), but of course, nothing is guaranteed, may change, so dyodd n BOSAYOR:

 
5GJ (AusGroup)
 WEIGHTED AVG PRICE :  0.6975   LAST DONE PRICE :  0.710 
 SPREAD/PRICE RATIO :  0.0070   AVG TRADE SIZE :  52.839 
< />
Last Trades Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol
0.685 7 306 306 0 0
0.690 178 6,521 4,598 0 1,923
0.694 1 25 0 25 0
0.695 24 2,536 312 0 2,224
0.700 7 2,056 223 0 1,833
0.705 7 1,496 67 0 1,429
0.707 1 30 0 30 0
0.710 86 3,463 0 0 3,463
TOTAL 311 16,433 5,506 55 10,872
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07-Oct-2009 11:35 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
x 0
x 0

 

   

  Patience has its virtues.  

Bounced up from the down-sloping support line of the bullish flag continuation pattern.

My advice is not to be too eager-beaver to take short profits and remember the 3rd golden mantra:

3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
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07-Oct-2009 11:30 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 2
x 1

Hi Benny,

I read this posting in CNA forum, copy n paste here just for sharing:

sessam



Joined: 31 Aug 2006
Posts: 3042
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Midas do not respond to good or bad news like others. It is a long term big fund stock not for short term trading. Go to her past movements she may go down after anouncements of contracts, but also note Midas has a characteristic of being depressed under accumulations and suddenly running up 5% to10% unexpectedly. This is a growth counter not for the gambling, see it as serious investment. If you had dared to buy Midas in Mar 09 you would have more than doubled even at the depressed price now. If Midas is now $2 with a bigger float she will attract the like of Warren Buffett.


bennykusman      ( Date: 07-Oct-2009 11:25) Posted:

im just wondering why midas slowly go up, not like ausgroup...

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07-Oct-2009 11:28 Midas   /   Midas       Go to Message
x 1
x 1

Below is my long-term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.

My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
 
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds.

If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.

 

Good Post  Bad Post 
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